2018 Season Results Conjecture


#1

Now that our basketball mourning period has (mostly) passed, I’d like to transition more to football talk. Yes, I know baseball is still going on and I do care about baseball, but for some reason it isn’t as fun to talk about.

We start this year on the road against Rice. I like this since it gives us a “real” game that feels more like a scrimmage in which to work out any kinks in the new offense before we face Arizona and Texas Tech back to back.

What I would like to do is start a thread for those who would like to offer up way-too-early opinions on the results of each game. If you’re one of those who thinks your guess about the outcome of a particular game might somehow jinx the team, this probably isn’t the thread for you. I’ll start us off. Give your pick (W or L) and a very brief reason why. My picks are in no way scientific, but based purely on my gut at this point in time.

At Rice = W because it’s Rice
Arizona = W because revenge factor will make for a great home field advantage
At Tech = L. Not sure why, but it just feels like Tech is too much of an unknown for me and we’ll be on the road in a hostile environment. If we drop an early one, this will be it.
TSU = W. Obviously.
Tulsa = W. No way we lose to them 2 years in a row. Not with a Briles offense and King under center.
At ECU = W because they’re terrible.
At Navy = W. Our offense will just be too much for them to handle this year and our defense handled them just fine last year.
USF = W. Quinton Flowers is gone and I can’t see their defense being able to handle us.
At SMU = W. Their running game should be good, but Ed Oliver and Co will shut that down. They lost a lot of production at WR, so I’m not scared of their passing game.
Temple = W. Honestly, I don’t know much about what Temple brings this year. I’m just thinking if we beat them last year on the road, we should beat them this year at home. I know…very scientific.
Tulane = W. Again, we aren’t losing to them two years in a row. That loss last year was embarrassing and won’t be repeated.
At Memphis = L. I hate to type that letter, but Memphis was high powered last year and I don’t see them really taking a step back this year. They lost Riley Ferguson, but gained an Arizona State transfer who is supposed to be pretty good. Their coaching staff is stable. Their schedule is weak (mid-season game against Mizzou is the only legit quality OOC opponent) so that might play in our favor. But on the road at the end of the year is going to be tough. If this happens, hopefully Memphis will have lost 2 other conference games.


#2

I’ll be the first bite.

I say this but with an asterisk - we will win every game next year.

I’m not saying it to be cute or because I’m a homer or whatever reason you can come up with. I say so based upon multiple factors. Our defense is going to be upgraded in multiple positions. In those positions they are very key because of the weaknesses from last year. Despite what many people think, our defense was good and considering it had to compensate for a poor offense it was very good at times. Lastly about the defense, this is Ed Oliver’s last year and I know he’s going to give everything he has and I think he will be the leader of the defense that I felt at times we were missing last year. I think Matt Adams was supposed to be the leader but I never saw that vocal leadership like we did when we had Elandon Roberts.

I think we have upgraded in multiple ways on offense but most importantly the play caller. I think will play much faster than we have in many years I think decision-making will be with confidence and I think that it will be unpredictable for our opponents defense.

I think the asterix will be as long as everyone stays healthy we will win every game next year. I think we have the personnel, I think we have the coaching staff, and I think we have the schedule in a favorable way for us to do such a feat.


#3

If Briles truly revolutionizes this horrid offense we have been running for the past 3 years, then I honestly see us going undefeated this season. However, if that isn’t realistic then maybe 1 loss as a trap game against… who knows.


#4

This is exactly how I felt. I don’t look at any game on the schedule and think we’ll probably lose that game. Every single game is winnable. But I remember back to 2015 and realize just how hard it is to go undefeated. Injuries and looking past opponents can screw you up big time. Truth be told, the only reason I gave an L for the Memphis game is because it’s on the road, but I think we should win that game.


#5

I only think we lost the UConn game because Tom Herman was quietly interviewing for South Carolina. Also I think losing Elandon Roberts to a BS targeting call killed us because we didn’t have a good alternative play caller on the defense.


(Russel ) #6

Also not having Greg ward hurt! We turned the ball over 4 that game.


#7

Absolutely! Completely failed to mention that. Great catch.

There were many things happened that night that cost us the game. Farrow also went down that game with an injury. I don’t remember if they ever fully disclosed but I thought it was a high ankle sprain that he ultimately had surgery on later.


#8

Y’all are proving my point though. Even when you have a schedule full of “should win” games, any number of things can still go wrong. That’s why what UCF did last year was so special even if their schedule wasn’t a gauntlet.


(Ryon Adams) #9

With an improved offense under Briles, and a stout defense led by Oliver, we will certainly be capable of winning every game.


(Mark) #10

I think we drop one of Arizona and Tech, and then then there’s the usual total head-scratcher of a loss. 10-2, should be good enough to get to the title game.


(Patrick) #11

I think, right now, we lose at Navy and Memphis. Just so hard to win in Annapolis and I know they’ll be fired up for that game. Same goes for Memphis as I see both teams being ranked and a sold out Liberty Bowl for that game. Think we lose at the end, like what always seems to happen and miss out on the AAC Championship game because of it.

That’s my feeling right now. 10-2, but no AAC Championship.


#12

At Rice = W Regardless of how improved they’ll be, we’d have to turn the ball over 8 times for them to have a chance.

Arizona = W I think home-field advantage gives us the edge. However, this is a put of or shut up game for alumni because current students who show up do not know Sumlin and couldn’t possibly share the same hatred for the man that alumni around the Sumlin days do. I’m sure we’ll be loud, and I’m sure Sumlin won’t know what hit him! lol

At Tech = ? This is a tossup game. They lost their starting QB but are turning it around on defense. They also get a player back that registered 102 tackles,2 picks and 6 TFLs. One of those picks was from Kyle Allen in our game. On the flip-side, our defense should keep them from scoring a bunch. As critical as I am about CMD, he does not allow a lot of points. I think it’ll be a close game.

TSU = W See Rice explanation above. lol

Tulsa = W. They are a young team. They have 15 seniors, compared to 36 players who are RS-SO or less. However, 7 of those seniors are on offense. It can be assumed they are gonna be physical again on offense but I think depth will catch up to them.

At ECU = W. This is not a good football program all around.

At Navy = W. I think this will be another dog fight, but the formula to beating any triple option team has been the same. Score points, make them punt after 3 tries, and force them to pass the ball. We can do that. Our Mike and Sam backers have to be ready. We will be without Matt Adams leading the charge.

USF = W. I’m going to go out on a limb and say it. Charlie Strong is not a good coach. He lost at UTA to Kansas and his team last year repeatedly got off to slow starts. Now a new starting QB has to come into the Cage with what could possibly be a 7-0 Coog team. lol Good luck Charlie.

At SMU = W. Chad Morris was the best coach they’d had in years, and the best coach they’ll ever have imo. He knew personnel well and made it very simple for one of the worst offenses in the AAC to become one of the best offenses. He also had the same sales pitch that Hermie had when he was here-“I know how to win, I came from a national championship power”, blah blah blah. Well not anymore. I don’t see any 5 star guys transferring in for Dykes. He knows offense, but I don’t think he’s talented enough to coach it down like Morris.

Temple = W. Temple was one of the worst offenses in the country last year (80th). They also lose these starters :
3 offensive linemen, 2 WRs, 2 DEs, a DT, a starting CB, and their FS. They will be extremely vulnerable if we get up by 3 scores. We out-pace them for 4 quarters.

Tulane = W. I have confidence that the schematic flaws that plagued us last year in this game (10 yard cushions allowing a ton of RAC) will be fixed. That might mean putting AMD or GS (or whoever is playing SAM) directly over Encalade and rolling a safety down 5 yards over them both. Drop the backer into a shallow zone and have the FS run man over the top. That’ll make the QB switch his read or risk a turnover. Fritz and Tulane have improved but we still have more talent going forward. It won’t be close when we start subbing .We should win this one by 3 touchdowns.

At Memphis = ? Pass rush, pass rush, pass rush…did I say pass rush? Ed cannot do it by himself. Ferguson is gone,but what we’ve learned from Memphis over the past 4 seasons is they just reload and have another QB ready to air it out for 4 quarters. We have to get more pressure. We run a base 3-4 sometimes are in a 3-3-5. When Memphis is running 3 WR sets we can’t have our extra bodies just dropping into deep zones. CMD needs to unleash the hounds! If we let Memphis turn this into a shootout, we’ll turn this into a nail biter.

12-0 seems doable, but 10-2 is realistic. 11-2 with a bowl victory.

Go Coogs!


(J V ) #13

The loss last season to Tulsa was awful. A Briles offense will not lose to them. Oh yeah, never mind…strange things happen.


(Jimmy Morris) #14

FAU’s offense struggled the first two games. No amount of practice in a new offense gets you ready for game day. Some of the players that perform well in practice won’t do as well on the field. Also adjustments need to be made.

Even if we win easily against Rice, just like 2017, we probably won’t learn much from the game. So I expect our offense to struggle against Arizona and Texas Tech both. I just have no clue how our defense will do in those games to be touting a victory or predicting a loss.

If we do start the season 1-2 but go on to the conference championship game with a 10-2 or 9-3 record, is there anyone (other than Pearland) that will consider that an unsuccessful season?


(gpropes) #15

Hmm, let’s see. UH first two game performances under BABs, Sumlin, Levine, Herman, and Applewhite:

2003

Houston 48, Rice 14
Michigan 50, Houston 3

2008

Houston 55, Southern 3
Okie Lite 56, Houston 37

2012

SWT 30, Houston 13
La Tech 56, Houston 49

2015

Houston 52, Tennessee Tech 24
Houston 34, Louisville 31

2017

Houston 19, Arizona 16
Houston 38, Rice 3

UH averaged 34.8 points in these 10 games while breaking in new offenses. I see no reason why KB can’t produce similar results.


(jimmyschofield) #16

We had that one year blip under Herman where we just about dominated every opponent. Besides that, we’ve lost a game that we should have won under every head coach going all the way back to Sumlin. So honestly it’s very difficult predicting this team’s schedule. Is Applewhite more Levine or Herman? That will dictate how we do as a program. Scary thought.


#17

Good question and time will tell, but I tend to think that CMA is more like Herman and that he is very meticulous with his thought process and planning.

I feel like his first year as a head coach was not successful because of issues with the coaching staff that he had picked. There was several hirings and firings/people to parting ways before the season even started. That includes our offensive line and wide receivers coach. Looking back on the season those were two of our biggest trouble areas. Of course having poor calling by our offensive coordinator didn’t help. The good thing is we’ve addressed most of those issues in the off-season.

The rest I think was related to being a first-time head coach, establishing a quarterback, and making some poor coaching decisions. However, we were ultimately in a position to win the majority of our games when you look at the big picture.


(Jimmy Morris) #18

I did say we probably crush Rice didn’t I? Take out the Rice and Division I-AA/bottom 10 FBS teams and how do those offensive numbers stack up again?


(Jimmy Morris) #19

Most of your analysis of Applewhite as a head coach comes from being hopelessly optimistic. The whole “no starter’s job is safe” thing, didn’t exactly get the best out of his players. He needs to scrap that game plan, pick starters and have their back.

Let me add, halftime is when the best coaches do their stuff. How many times did we see things get worse instead of better for our team in the second half? I’d say maybe 2 or 3 times out of 12 games we played better in the second half. Not saying he can’t be a better coach. I’m just not going to blindly say that he is the head coach and knows what he is doing until I see more proof that it’s true.

Hoping for the best. Bracing for mediocrity.


#20

“hopelessly optimistic”? Wow! You have to be the most passive aggressive insulting person on this forum. I think that you are hopelessly negative about everyone’s post and you live by misery loves company.

“I’m just not going to blindly say”… I guess everyone on here are mindless idiots besides you and we just randomly say what ever comes to mind. Sometimes I may not be fully informed and sometimes I may not make the best analysis, but I ALWAYS try to justify or explain my OPINION.

You should try to be more respectful to people on here. Disagree with people fine, but take jabs at people through the computer at people that should be considered part of a family is a joke.