The SEC assumes no risks. Doesn’t need to have distribution channels or sell advertising. They let the experts do the heavy lifting, and pocket the checks. Not their problem if viewers dry up or advertisers won’t buy. Win-win.
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ESPN can definitely do that. So can Fox or CBS or WB. Or they can parcel it out like the NFL does.
The monopoly here would be the SEC’s. Not ESPN’s.
ESPN thrives because as of right now they have more leverage than any individual conference.
Which is my point! It’s dangerous and bad for college football.
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When the dust clears by 2030, you will probably have two super conferences.(B1G and SEC) The best of the PAC and the ACC will be added too the super two. I could see 40 teams (20 in each.)
We all forget that ESPN/FOX is carrying out the wishes of those who pay them. Right now that is the shrinking cable market and the expanding streaming market(ESPN+, etc). But probably the biggest spenders are the corporate advertisers.
These advertisers want the most eyeballs, they care not about conferences or teams in particular. They have computer programs that tell them who is projected to get the most eyeballs watching the games and that means watching their ads.
The closer they have NFL type numbers for fewer teams the better.
For the teams outside of the blessed 40, get ready for more weekday games and way more ESPN+ and Amazon, etc. streaming games.
Another off topic, soon to be reality in the 2030+ year. Electric cars, road per mile fees to replace fuel tax, and limiting where one can and cannot drive. See London England and what is being proposed in California and a few other places in the world.
Fans can take mass transit to games where it is available. But the emphasis will be on making more fans watching games at home for a streaming fee. This will produce less attendance at stadiums/arenas and again increase the eyeballs paying to watch on streaming sports channels and the advertisers ads.
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then 3/4 of the country may just not be watching college football. Personally, I can not watch Alabama more than once or twice a year.
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I think that’s one of the things that’s missing about a lot of this analysis. With pro sports, it’s about watching the players and maybe your local team or maybe not. A lot of interest in college football is through your school or a local school you align with. If there are only 20 or 30 teams that cuts out a lot of people’s connection to it.
If the P5 split off I’m not watching. Not out of spite but because it’s no longer a league I have a preferred team associated with. Not gonna say “Well gosh I guess I’m just an Aggies fan now” or “I suppose I’ll root for WVU”… I’ll just lose interest.
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I don’t think ESPN wants the AAC to die—-but the only way to protect it is with a huge 15 to 20 million a team tv deal—which would cost ESPN almost 300 million a year for a 19 team merged conference. Even then—the Big12 is better off standing pat for the next 4 years in the Big12 collecting oversized shares and massive exit fees from UT and OU. With the B12 99 year agreement, GOR, and autonomy—-it simply makes more sense to rebuild the Big12 shell with the best of the AAC than doing it under the AAC banner. If you rebuild under the Big12 banner, you can dump the AAC dregs while skimming the valuable cream off the AAC top for a better, leaner, higher quality near P5 conference.
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Big12 only hope is to skim the AAC and win big, fast
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B12 should caved into ESPN and renegotiate a new contract immediately. Let OU/UT go with minimal buyout and add 4-8 AAC/BYU. If they can get somewhere around 15M-20M, that would be great. Aresco become the new B12 commissioner.
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