I mostly agree with this, but would probably mention Memphis and drop Tulane out of the discussion.
UCF v. Memphis this week will hopefully tell us a lot more about UCF than we currently know, but there are some weird factors at play. First, Hurricane Irma and how it impacts players' focus. This one hits a bit too close to home. Second, UCF played FIU in Week 1. They didn't struggle a bit, but that tells us absolutely nothing about how they'll perform against a good team. Memphis played ULM and did struggle, but Memphis throws a lot and it was a very wet game and I don't know much about ULM. I didn't get to watch that game, but I'm just spitballing here.
If UCF can remain focused in the face of a very large storm (very big if), I'm looking forward to what this game tells us about both teams. There aren't any other good conference match ups this week. USF should destroy UConn despite USF's early struggles and Navy should whip Tulane.