7-5 is bearish. This team has won at least 8 games each of the last 4 seasons and averaged 9 1/2 over that span.
Looking at the schedule, we should be TD+ favorites in 5 games (@ UTSA, Rice, SMU, ECU and @ Tulane).
The remaining 7 games (@ Arizona, TTU, @ Temple, @ Tulsa, Memphis, @ USF and Navy) should all be under 1 TD lines, one way or the other.
To go 7-5 we’d either have to drop at least one game to a team that we have no business losing to, or only manage 2-5 against the “quality” teams on the schedule. Either would be a terrible disappointment.
- Edited to show that the SMU game is at home.