If you use ESPN FPI to predict spread, we would be dogs 4 times, favorites 7 times, and 1 pick em, so that may be what Athlon is basing predictions off of. Predicted spreads below, with ESPN FPI ratings and 3 points added for home field advantage.
UH -6 @ UTSA
UH+4 @ Arizona
UH -18 vs Rice
UH (Pick) vs Texas Tech
UH -3.5 @ Temple
UH -8.5 vs SMU
UH +1.5 @ Tulsa
UH +1 vs Memphis
UH -13.5 vs ECU
UH +5.5 @ USF
UH -1 @ Tulane
UH -5.5 vs Navy
The ESPN FPI has us as ONE point favorites at Tulane??? Thatâs crazy.
Everyone is expecting Fritz to make a big jump with Tulane this year, but that is still crazy.
Yeah that one really jumped out at me. Tulane got 3 points for home field advantage, which if you were at Yulman like me 2 years ago you remember there were 3 times the number of UH fans there than Tulane fans. But even 4 points seems sketchy.
The other that jumped out at me was -6 @ UTSA. Vegas Insider composite odds all have us listed at -14.5.
Just to be clear, these are NOT spreads from ESPN, I just used ESPNâs early FPI to come up with approximate spreads. Typically, FPI is pretty close to what Vegas settles on, but there can be some goofy outliers.
FPI is trash as it uses recruiting rankings to try and predict outcomes. It does well with P5 teams, but it has consistently underperformed in regards to G5 teams. They also wonât show prior predictions from previous years which is very shady.
http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/122612/an-inside-look-at-college-fpi
â FPI uses four recruiting services â ESPN, Rivals, Scouts and Phil Steele â to measure the talent on a teamâs roster and add an additional piece of information about which teams are on the rise. The addition of recruiting has been a controversial piece of FPI, but itâs worth noting that it is a very minor component that helps with prediction accuracy.
S&P+ has done a better job, although it didnât predict 2 years ago. S&P+ has us as favorites in 9 games, toss-ups in 2 games (@Arizona and @Temple), and underdogs in 1 game (@USF). It predicts 8-4 or 9-3 for the Coogs this year, but there is a lot of variation that puts us somewhere in between 11-1 and 7-5.
How do you figure that. Play SMU at Home will be possibly 2 td fav. SMU predicted to win about 5 gms. May be confusing USF which UH will be underdog.
This seems much more reasonable and in-line with my expectations. 7 wins seems like a worst-case scenario, with 11-12 being best case and 8-10 most likely going in.
I am of the opinion we will reload at linebacker. Egbule (sp?) Is a beast. Moving issiah to corner is going to be a huge success. #markit 
Grant Stuard
There was a big dropoff when Bowser was out replaced by Egbule (sp?). I am hoping he shows significant improvement or one of the freshmen steps up.
FPI is a ESPN proprietary P5 hype machine. Donât take it seriously.
You mean a sophomore wasnât as good as a senior that got drafted in the second round? No way!
The kid is gonna wreck qbs and rbs. #markit.
Just reread this article and saw that they give UH a C+ for the Applewhite hire, but of course, no explanation for why. What in the world is that based on? So many of the predictions in this article make absolutely no sense.
Because it didnât follow the media narrative.
According to the media we were supposed have hired Lane Kiffin or Lincoln Riley, but UH and Fertitta had asked for way too high a buyout as a frustration response to losing Sumlin and Herman. As a result, UH had to go with a second-tier candidate with no leverageâŠlike Applewhite.
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