Here are some problems with Big 12 expansion:
The Big 12 will remain a P5 only as long as both UT and OU remain in the conference. So, assuming that both don’t bolt,
- Will the non-Texas programs really support another Texas program in the conference?
Assuming the conference grows to 14 or 16, and only 1 of the additions is UH, then I don’t see a problem, as the proportion of Texas programs will be diluted. But if the expansion is only to 12, then UH does present a problem, as that will increase the proportion of Texas programs.
Texas, as much as it is hated by Cougars, holds the key. If the Big 12 changes its rules that expansion only needs a simple majority vote, rather than 80%, then you can be sure UH is about to get screwed.
- Everything UT does is for its own best interests.
So, will UT believe/accept that adding UH to the Big 12, is in UT best interests?
What can UH in the Big 12 offer UT? How would UT benefit, and more importantly will UT benefit more than UH will?
Given all the negative history between the 2 programs, and as little trust UH has in UT, does UT have any reason to have more faith or trust in UH?
As some people have said here, its easier to jump from P5 to P5 than from G5 to P5. Can UT ever really trust UH will not jump to another P5, and is thus using UT and the Big 12 as stepping stone?
- Realistically, is there any other P5 that might seriously consider UH?
I am not so sure. The SEC and B1G are 100% out, ACC is almost certainly out.
That leaves the Big 12, and the Pac-12. Which of these is likely to want UH more? As much as I hate saying it, I really can’t see any P5, other than the Big 12, really being interested in, and inviting UH. And even then UH will need strong UT support, there will be natural opposition from the non-Texas schools against seeing another Texas school in the conference.
Its Big 12 or Bust! It all depends on the next media deal too. Right now ESPN is getting the AAC dirt cheap. But, it either of the FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) are willing to up the the ante even 150% and use the AAC as a starter to break into the world of college athletics, ESPN might be motivated to pay the Big 12 to take up the top 4 AAC programs.
From the FANG perspective, using AAC as even an experiment to see how college athletics might work is perfect. They take the risk at the fraction of the cost it would take to try with a P5 conference, even if the AAC deal taken to $10 million per year per team. 2019/20 is not too far, lets see how things go.