Big 12 Football: Top 5 expansion candidates for the conference

Here are some problems with Big 12 expansion:

The Big 12 will remain a P5 only as long as both UT and OU remain in the conference. So, assuming that both don’t bolt,

  1. Will the non-Texas programs really support another Texas program in the conference?

Assuming the conference grows to 14 or 16, and only 1 of the additions is UH, then I don’t see a problem, as the proportion of Texas programs will be diluted. But if the expansion is only to 12, then UH does present a problem, as that will increase the proportion of Texas programs.

Texas, as much as it is hated by Cougars, holds the key. If the Big 12 changes its rules that expansion only needs a simple majority vote, rather than 80%, then you can be sure UH is about to get screwed.

  1. Everything UT does is for its own best interests.

So, will UT believe/accept that adding UH to the Big 12, is in UT best interests?

What can UH in the Big 12 offer UT? How would UT benefit, and more importantly will UT benefit more than UH will?

Given all the negative history between the 2 programs, and as little trust UH has in UT, does UT have any reason to have more faith or trust in UH?

As some people have said here, its easier to jump from P5 to P5 than from G5 to P5. Can UT ever really trust UH will not jump to another P5, and is thus using UT and the Big 12 as stepping stone?

  1. Realistically, is there any other P5 that might seriously consider UH?

I am not so sure. The SEC and B1G are 100% out, ACC is almost certainly out.

That leaves the Big 12, and the Pac-12. Which of these is likely to want UH more? As much as I hate saying it, I really can’t see any P5, other than the Big 12, really being interested in, and inviting UH. And even then UH will need strong UT support, there will be natural opposition from the non-Texas schools against seeing another Texas school in the conference.

Its Big 12 or Bust! It all depends on the next media deal too. Right now ESPN is getting the AAC dirt cheap. But, it either of the FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) are willing to up the the ante even 150% and use the AAC as a starter to break into the world of college athletics, ESPN might be motivated to pay the Big 12 to take up the top 4 AAC programs.

From the FANG perspective, using AAC as even an experiment to see how college athletics might work is perfect. They take the risk at the fraction of the cost it would take to try with a P5 conference, even if the AAC deal taken to $10 million per year per team. 2019/20 is not too far, lets see how things go.

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i think you are wrong to believe that Big 12 is only P5 interested in UH…We have cultivated a relationship with PAC 12 for a long time and have met before with their leadership and have even been given criteria for us to meet to enhance our candidacy…PAC 12 desperately needs to expand their market base eastward. If they make a move, i think UH will be in the picture…The key is them deciding to do something…we are NOT going to get left out of some PAC 12 expansion to 16…
As far as future Big 12 expansion goes, UT likely will have nothing to do with it because they and OU and probably 1 or 2 other schools will be gone…they have both refused to extend the GOR for a reason…they search for higher prestige and higher revenue conference than Big 12 is…

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Hunter showed that the PAC12 interest is mainly one sided when he stuck his foot in his mouth about their interest in us.

how would YOU know what PAC 12 interest is, long term? you sit in on the meetings??
MR was who started the relationship with PAC not Yurechek. this is all about when their tv deal comes to an end, which isnt until the early 2020s…

Dismiss any thought that UT will cooperate with us in the near future. They are
very angry about the UT_Houston outcome.

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Excellent.
We are still angry about the end of the SWC.
It was time, little ut got some payback.

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They shouldn’t have illegally bought property from a booster at exorbitant price.

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If there was serious interest from other conferences, I think the Big 12 would have expanded with UH. They dont want another P5 coming into Texas. They can still screw that up, but I think they come in and offer as soon as another P5 is ready to. They also know that we would prefer the Big 12 because of old rivalries and location.

Yeah thev whole PAC 12 is interested it’s all contingent on where the top free agents go first. UH won’t be a priority add to anything. We can be a nice piece to an equation, but no way are we in the same league as the to priority teams.

Firstly, Hunters move was truly amateurish! Particularly when you consider what Bowlsby came from the Pac and probably had close, personal relationships with the brass, who would naturally would not be too pleased to see being used by UH to bluff Bowlsty. The Pac statement was very emphatic in its denial of any interest in UH.

Of course that does not mean that UH is off the Pac expansion list forever. However, I do think that the first P5 to die or expand will be the Big 12. So any hope to that the Pac will swoop in and pic up UH is really a pipe dream at this time.

If anything, I think Pac will wait as long as possible to see if OU/UT are available. Then the likelihood is that they expand to 16, and take UT/TT/OU/OSU.

I think expansion with just 1 team to 13 makes no sense at all. So they have to find a partner with the Coogs. NM, NM State don’t bring much to the table, and in fact might even be value reducing. The ACC faces a similar problem. Now if Notre Dame agrees to join the ACC, then the ACC will need another program, and UH checks all the boxes. I mean there really is no other program that will add anything to the conference.

If the Big 10 and SEC expand again, they will go to 16, and Pac will grow by 4 to 16 as well. The Big 12 is always the odd man out. Their first round of expansion to 12 will almost certainly be with programs outside Texas. As farfetched as it sounds, poaching a couple of programs from Pac is not out of the realm of possibility, if the revenue differential continues.

If not pac programs, than UCF/USF become the next candidates for a whole slew of reasons. Whole new markets, in recruiting hotbed, proximity to WVU.

The best case for the Cougars is for the Big 12 to expand to 14 or 16. I’ll make a prediction, if the Big 12 only expands to 12, UH will NOT be part of that expansion, even if that requires conference rules be amended to allow expansion decisions by simple majority voting.

The other best scenario, ESPN have some serious competition bidding for AAC media rights. Frankly, I really think that if this happens, UH, USF, UCF will be in the Big 12 tomorrow morning!
No way ESPN will give up such valuable properties to a competitor.

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OU doesn’t want the PAC12 and OSU would be a major issue with a lot of the schools in the PAC12; they don’t fit the academic profile at all. Not saying that the PAC12 doesn’t want OU, just that it won’t happen.

You are correct in that OU/UT hold all the cards at this point. No one is making a move until their situations are resolved. UH is sitting in a good spot no matter what happens.

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It is not a question of availability…The PAC has been down the OU/Texas road before…LOOK… the PAC doesnt pay enough to interest either school, who will make considerably more money going to BIG, SEC or ACC. Theyre not holding out for anything on that end because they arent stupid…WHEN OU and Texas bail, that will be when the PAC makes a move, if one is coming…and it will be to take other schools in the southwest/midwest region to expand their market share…
It is meaningless claiming the PAC has no interest in us…The PAC has no interest in ANYONE right now, their tv deal doesnt expire for 4 or 5 years!! our plan is long term, based on PAC reaction to improving their situation with expansion when their current deal is close to expiration…and dont think they wont work in concert with BIG, because they will…
There isnt going to be ANY Big 12 expansion until after the smoke clears, and they could be down to 6 schools or less…OU and Texas are LEAVING when that GOR is close to expiration…that is the only thing certain…
PAC will take 4 if they expand, and we will be a part of it…something on the order of Houston, Tech, Kansas State and Iowa state, as i believe the last 3 qualify academically, as do we…The key is that the PAC needs to do something when time comes…

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We are not going to SEC for sure, no possibility, heard it straight from horses mouth, PAC more probable

Also forgot to mention ACC another strong possibility I was told

And who is your so called source? I have never heard us mentioned with anyone other than the Big 12, except by maybe the Dreamers on this board…

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Straight from the top, u can figure that one out

LOL…the Lord Himself told you this?

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RK who else lol

Although the Big 12 would be the best fit because of proximity, the PAC 12 may be the next best fit since UH is located in a large metropolitan like 7 of the PAC 12 schools. Flying between large cities is much cheaper that flying to Sticksville U., 600 miles away. Houston would also give the PAC 12 another major TV market.

Metropolitan population
UCLA - Los Angeles, 13,310,447
USC - Los Angeles, 13,310,447
UH - Houston, 6,772,470
California - Oakland/San Francisco, 4,679,166
Arizona St. - Phoenix, 4,661,537
U. of Washington, Seattle, 3,798,902
Stanford - San Jose, 1,978,816
U. of Utah - Salt Lake City, 1,186,187

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600 miles from where? Nearest PAC12 school is Arizona at 1050 miles.