Of course they are talking about the city not the University but… if the city is important then does it not follow a presence in the city is important too. For the SEC it is generally assumed that A&M gives them a lot of presence in Houston, and for the Big 12, Texas (with some support from Tech) is supposed to carry Houston. Until that impression is broken UH has an uphill battle to get into either conference
We can change the narrative in the city. I actually think hoops helps us more right now because we can play and beat the big boys. If we’re too good in football we’re just annoying squeaky wheels like UCF.
That is why they try everything to keep UH out of big picture. If we are in a power conference, we will get a 5* once in awhile but we will be loaded with 4* and 3*.
I am an old fashioned sort of guy, I believe that while there may be some merit to the belief that fear of UH meeting its full potential may be a factor in P5 (particularly Big 12) not adding UH, the really important factor is money.How many $ will adding UH bring to the Big 12? How much extra are media players willing to pay the Big 12 to add UH?
The way I see it there are 4 possibilities for what media providers may pay for UH to be added.
Less than current per team payment. E.g. $30 million a year when the current per team payout is $40 million. The amount is irrelevant, what’s important is that in this scenario adding UH will dilute value for the current members assuming the conference sticks to equal revenue sharing.
More than current per team payout, but not enough to cover added travel costs. Adding new programs will also lead to added travel costs. This makes adding UH value diluting.
As much as current per team payout. Once again value diluting, as increased travel costs will higher lead to expenses for current programs and lower net income.
Enough to not only cover added travel costs, but leave a nice bit of change left over. Adding would make perfect sense.
Now 2,3 can be mitigated by creating geographic divisions. So while UT may have to travel to Houston every other year, it may not have to travel to Manhattan or Ames or Lawrence as often. Travel to Houston would clearly be cheaper than traveling to Kansas or Iowa.
The problem with this approach is that it’s not likely to appeal to Kansas, KU, ISU, WVU. UT and OU visiting football games are their top sellers. Current Big 12 scheduling guarantees that OU or UT visits them every year. With geographic divisions and 2 cross divisional games a year, guaranteeing UT or OU visits becomes impossible.
So when you look at from a purely financial perspective the deck is stacked not just against UH, but any other G5 program. The key is getting ESPN to up the payout sufficiently to make it worthwhile for a P5 conference to add UH.
UCF won many impressive games in a row and are still waiting for their invite. I also used to think we could “play” our way into a P5 with some more seasons like 2015 see TCU and Utah but that seems to have changed. Timing + wins seems to be the trick and timing right now is not good.
Yeah, there’s kind of a spectrum. Rutgers was never very good but was in the right place at the right time. It literally doesn’t matter how good Boise State becomes they will never, ever get that invite no matter what they do.
We’re somewhere in between. The question is where.
I feel like our big shot was getting the invite TCU got, unfortunately. But chaos in 2023 could be very good for us (or bad for us).
Nobody knows what will happen in 2023/24. Every P5 conference is an option including the SEC. We need to be as attractive as we can be. Our academics, endowment, leaders and soon to be medical School give us the best chance since 1996/97.
We all know that uta is at the root of our non inclusion. It makes zero economical sense that we are not part of the small12. The so called loss revenues from our possible inclusion (it is myth not a fact) will be quickly corrected within a short time. Demographics do not lie. The third biggest University in Texas within the soon to be third biggest city in America is not included in the most regional P5. It spells CORRUPTION to the highest order. A third grader could quickly demonstrates the major “jolt” that U of H could bring to the small12. It has always been and will be about recruiting. uta, ou and okiestate are afraid that our inclusion will mean us dominating the small12. Switzer said it on National TV with fewer words. The fact that Texas is getting such a population influx could easily mean a re-creation of the Southwest Conference. The main issue is that uta wants to control their illegal monopoly. Maybe one day the Texas politicians will impose that a regional P5 (small12) include U of H. These same small 12 public Texas Schools are benefiting from public money. Why should they be in the small12 and not us? We are not talking about private business here. This is an on going uta scam. Everybody knows it especially the Texas politicians.
I agree that fear or UH plays a big part. However if the money media networks were willing to pay for UH was attractive enough, greed would trump fear.
Blame UT, Big 12 all you want, as there is truth in your reasons. But the biggest villain in UH not being in a P5 are the media players. If tomorrow ESPN demanded the Big 12 add UH, do you think the Big 12 would say no?
The networks killed expansion because of the pro-rata clause. The networks were on the hook to pay additional money for the new schools had the B12 expanded, the existing schools would have kept their full disbursement and it would never have been diluted. That will be the case if any conference expands.
Now, could the B12 had pushed back and made the networks pay? Sure, but then the networks would have forced them to extend their GORs past '24-'25 and they (UT & OU) didn’t want to do that. So here we are.
NO conference or school ‘owns’ the Houston market. None. Not the SEC, not the B12. There is space for UH to become the hometown university, regardless of other schools alumni living in this city. UH has to be consistently successful. We will never ‘own’ this city, unless we’re consistently winning championships maybe. Everyone living in Houston at the time remembers Phi Slama Jama, regardless of where they went to college. This city will get behind winners. In that regard, a conference with no Texas presence may see the value.
I think we would not even need the BIG money to compete. We would just need in a P5 conference. Once you are in then you can play for a mnc and that is what bring in top notch recruits. It is the number one strategy P5 teams employ when recruiting against G5. You can never, ever, ever, play for the mnc.
I saw something on Fox Business that there is going to be a streaming service called Disney+ and will include a number of things like all the Star Wars shows and ESPN+ for $6.99 per month. sounds like a lot more exposure for the AAC??
I don’t know how true that is. If you are in a P5, you become part of the facilities race. You won’t be able to land top recruits if your facilities can’t match up to those your competition can offer. To build your facilities you need P5 level money.
Mentioning the city but not the University is another slap in the face. The Big 12 with 10 members will get interested in us when another conference comes courting. I hope our leadership is smart enough to tell the Big 12 with 10 members to go pound it. The Big 12 with 10 members only has 2 schools that are relevant; the rest are placeholders. And, how soon before Tech basketball is on probation? They made the horns seem less important and that is intolerable.
PAC and ACC are the most likely suitors. Keep in mind both conferences earn a lot less than the Big 12. Plus travel costs as member of either conference would be huge. So, even if either of these conferences does come courting and then B12 come calling, probably best move would be to parley interest from another conference into getting better terms from the Big 12. E.g. a much shorter or no buy-in period, with full share of conference payout commencing either in 2-3 years (as opposed to 6 years) or best of all, immediately.
Financially the Big 12 would probably be best. Least expensive in terms of travel costs, and highest in terms or revenues. Plus more likely to have large home crowds as fans from other Big 12 schools (particularly the Texas ones) will find it easy and cheap to travel when their schools visit Houston, so more revenue.
Emotionally it may feel highly satisfying to flip them the finger, but financially (and from a developing/rekindling rivalries) perspective Big 12 would probably be best. From a purely cold hard business, maximizing ROI goal, I would support joining the Big 12 over PAC or ACC. Of course, if Big 10 or SEC came calling, that’s a no brainer!