Although I wonder if the Alston ruling has put the kibosh on P5 expansion or makes it more imperative.
The SEC will clearly take the most lose and liberal interpretation of the ruling and push the athletes academic needs compensation as far as they possibly can. The other P5 will have no choice but to follow suit. I can’t imagine Ohio State and Texas being too pleased as SEC programs buy up the best recruits.
So where does this leave expansion? If there are any available G5 programs that add net additional value to a P5, then expansion is guaranteed. E.g. if adding UH and Cincy added $3 million to the current ACC per program payout, the financial pressure of paying athletes alone will guarantee that the ACC will eventually be forced to add UH and Cincy.
On the other hand, if expansion is value dilutive or even value neutral then I don’t see any P5 wanting to expand. Another possibility is conferences giving up equal revenue sharing, and the top programs demanding higher shares. What if say the ACC came to UH with an offer that UH share would be 50%, and not an equal share, only the original members would get equal shares, does UH take such an offer?
Worse yet, partnerships like the Big 12 - Pac 12 partnership that was floated a few weeks ago may become more likely in some form. If that happens expansion is dead in the water!
It all depends on the media networks. How are they willing to compensate P5 conferences if they add top G5 schools.
Finally, now more than in the past few years, the G5 is in danger of falling really far behind. Like it or not, even the smaller P5 programs can afford to outbid G5 programs for top talent.