Although I wonder if the Alston ruling has put the kibosh on P5 expansion or makes it more imperative.
The SEC will clearly take the most lose and liberal interpretation of the ruling and push the athletes academic needs compensation as far as they possibly can. The other P5 will have no choice but to follow suit. I can’t imagine Ohio State and Texas being too pleased as SEC programs buy up the best recruits.
So where does this leave expansion? If there are any available G5 programs that add net additional value to a P5, then expansion is guaranteed. E.g. if adding UH and Cincy added $3 million to the current ACC per program payout, the financial pressure of paying athletes alone will guarantee that the ACC will eventually be forced to add UH and Cincy.
On the other hand, if expansion is value dilutive or even value neutral then I don’t see any P5 wanting to expand. Another possibility is conferences giving up equal revenue sharing, and the top programs demanding higher shares. What if say the ACC came to UH with an offer that UH share would be 50%, and not an equal share, only the original members would get equal shares, does UH take such an offer?
Worse yet, partnerships like the Big 12 - Pac 12 partnership that was floated a few weeks ago may become more likely in some form. If that happens expansion is dead in the water!
It all depends on the media networks. How are they willing to compensate P5 conferences if they add top G5 schools.
Finally, now more than in the past few years, the G5 is in danger of falling really far behind. Like it or not, even the smaller P5 programs can afford to outbid G5 programs for top talent.
The Big 12 added WVU because it opened up a new market for them. WVU brings a lot of it’s surrounding states market. Having WVU actually makes it better for the Big 12 to add more eastern programs.
For me the decision to pick TCU over UH (or heck even Rice) was a strange one. The Big 12 went for a school in a market it already owned over a school that would give it an anchor in a market its reasonably strong in, but does not own.
If the Coogs could compete for the title in 2-3 years in the ACC, that would make Hulk Holgo the greatest coach ever. No way in hay that the Coogs are on the same level as Clem, FL State, Miami, etc. the first 2-3 years.
It isnt a question of WANTING. Once B1G makes their move and takes Okie and whoever partners with them, then things are going to happen.Texas will likely leave once OU is gone, but where? And how many will B1G take, 2 or 4? They are perfectly capable of either. What is response of other P5s to this move by B1G? Do they do nothing? Not likely…ACC decides they also must go to 16, and does so. The PAC may or may not make a move to do the same…but there will be serious pressure on them to do SOMETHING, to keep from falling further behind.
And there isnt going to be any meaningful PAC-Big 12 partnership after 2024, because OU and Texas wont be there…
The ACC already has Florida covered with FSU and Miami, I don’t think they need anyone else there. UH would expand its TV audience to the greater Houston area and SE Texas. Cincy would open Ohio and the northern Kentucky area. But, I don’t see expansion happening anytime in the foreseeable future.
B12 would pick one of the Florida schools (UCF) as a travel partner for WV, not both. Either Cinci or Memphis would be the other. UH’s future (hopefully) is elsewhere.
We aren’t going to the ACC. There are too many g5 programs on that side of the country to pick from. The west is the opposite. They have relatively no schools to pick from that match their performance and academic metrics.
The most likely scenario, IMO, is the PAC goes after UT and Kansas maybe, leaving us to go to the B12.
If so, then the B12 most likely follows the Big East into a death spiral and the P5 morphs into the P4.
Under this scenario, the remnants of the B12 likely try to regroup in some fashion with some teams from the AAC to form yet another reconstituted “best of the Non P-4” conferences.
My guess is that if you take half (or more) of the Big 12 and put it with the top of the AAC, it would retain a degree of status that we presently lack. Our current conference had a real tipping point as soon as WVU left (solidified when Louisville did). That tipping point is less likely to occur here.
I’m honestly more worried that the Big 12 will get raided and we won’t be a part of the Big 12’s raid of the AAC because they think they’re still set in Texas even without UT.
If texas leaves, the Big 12 can kiss the southern half of the state goodbye. Baylor, TCU, and Tech (if they don’t get bundled with texas) are not enough to carry the state.
There are disincentives for Texas or Oklahoma to leave the Big 12 especially if the CFP expands to 8, which I believe will happen. Texas will never be the first to leave the Big 12 because they can’t take LHN with them. ESPN overpaid for LHN on purpose in 2011 to keep Texas right where it was: in the Big 12 and a Tier 1 property of ABC/ESPN. None of the other P5 leagues will allow a school-owned network in their conference.
If you are the administration at OU, you have the seventh highest total revenue in college athletics (among pulic institutions). Can you make more in TV money in the Big 10 or SEC? Maybe a few million more. Are you going to make the CFP as a member of either of those leagues as often as you have in the Big 12? Very doubtful. And another hurdle to OU leaving would be seperation from Okie State. No conference with a network is going to add two schools with mediocre academic profiles in a small population state like Oklahoma. Just look at what happened when OU-OKie State tried sending feelers to the PAC 12 in 2011. They were rebuffed pretty quickly. So… OU would probably decide that the best place to for them would still be in the Big 12.
Too bad it’s not 2024 already so we would know how conference expansion turned out, but I would bet my 401k that UT and OU are not leaving the B12. UT athletics bring in more money than any school in the country other than A&M.
OU is G O N E…they can pick from B1G or SEC…they are NOT going to stay in Big 12…the SEC could not add them and okie state fast enough…and Kansas or Texas would be their partner for the B1G…PAC rejected them because PACs initial purpose was inroads into Texas with Texas and aggie, along with the okie schools and that fell through…SEC already HAS a Texas bellcow in aggie.and B1G would like to add OU and Texas both, if they can…
OU and Texas REFUSE to extend big 12 GOR for a reason…THEY ARE LEAVING! Every action they have or have not taken the last 4 or 5 years confirms it…