Western Michigan needs to lose one, and they still have Toledo and their Championship game.
We have to win our conference, because we ain’t getting an at-large bid. I don’t care if we beat Louisville. We won’t sniff the top 12.
Navy has to lose two more. The three-way tie possibility is out the window. In a three-way tie, the first tie-breaker after head-to-head is intra-division record. We lost to two division rivals. Navy’s loss was to an East division team. Even if they lose to Tulsa, that is only one loss in the West.
If Navy loses two, we need Tulsa to lose one more, and we would take the head-to-head.
Then, we might have to travel (most likely) for the Championship game to Temple (has head-to-head vs USF) or South Florida (if Temple loses). If they both lose one more, we could possibly host as the highest ranked team or better overall record.