Computer Poll I Run

Cougar Football
1

For the last few years now I’ve been running a spreadsheet a computer poll for another board I post on. Since I’m beginning to crunch numbers for this season now, thought I’d run it here and see what you guys think, especially because I got the result I always wanted this time :slight_smile:

It’s pretty evolved at this point - I do my own rankings, I do not use a shred of preseason or previous season data, my own strength of schedule rankings, and I can do some rudimentary prediction. It weighs values in the following order -

  1. Wins
  2. Point Differential
  3. Turnover Margin
  4. Yards Gained/Allowed Margin
    (This gives a raw score)
  5. Strength of schedule - 2/3 own team, 1/3 opponents’ opponents. Up to 33% bonus to raw score for #1 SOS, declining bonuses down to #95, penalties begin after #97

Poll below -

Team			Record	Score		Strength of Schedule		Conferences by SOS	Conferences by Average Score	
1. Houston		4-0	2.4869		1. Bowling Green		1. Sun Belt		1. ACC	 
2. Louisville		4-0	2.3202		2. Rice				2. American		2. Big 10	 
3. Clemson		4-0	2.3086		3. UNC Charlotte		3. Conference USA	3. American	 
4. Ohio State		3-0	2.0837		4. Oklahoma			4. MAC			4. SEC	 
5. Michigan		4-0	2.0817		5. Florida Atlantic		5. SEC			5. Pac 12	 
6. Alabama		4-0	1.7593		6. USC				6. Pac 12		6. Big 12	 
7. Texas A&M		4-0	1.6498		7. Georgia State		7. Big 12		7. MAC	 
8. Baylor		4-0	1.6271		8. Troy				8. ACC			8. Mountain West	 
9. Memphis		3-0	1.5448		9. Houston			9. Mountain West	9. Conference USA	 
10. Miami (FL)		3-0	1.5257		10. Idaho			10. Big 10		10. Sun Belt	 
11. Wisconsin		4-0	1.4921		11. Texas State					
12. Nebraska		4-0	1.4818		12. Tulsa					
13. Army		3-1	1.4401		13. Western Kentucky		Median Team -  Auburn	
14. Wake Forest		4-0	1.3921		14. UTEP			Average	Team - Temple	
15. Troy		3-1	1.3814		15. Eastern Michigan					
16. Washington		4-0	1.3628		16. Hawaii					
17. Toledo		3-0	1.3392		17. Louisville					
18. Kansas State	2-1	1.3376		18. UCF					
19. Western Michigan	4-0	1.2980		19. New Mexico State					
20. Boise State		3-0	1.2655		20. Clemson					
21. Southern Miss	3-1	1.2312		21. Ole Miss					
22. Colorado		3-1	1.1902		22. Florida State					
23. Air Force		3-0	1.1827		23. Colorado					
24. Maryland		3-0	1.1823		24. Penn State					
25. Stanford		3-0	1.1605		25. Fresno State					
									
118. San Jose State	1-3	-0.3765		123. Nevada					
119. Kent State		1-3	-0.3851		124. Washington					
120. Bowling Green	1-3	-0.3878		125. New Mexico					
121. Iowa State		1-3	-0.4193		126. Toledo					
122. Massachusetts	1-3	-0.4243		127. Arizona State					
123. Rice		0-4	-0.4913							
124. Virginia		1-3	-0.5005							
125. Miami (OH)		0-4	-0.5105							
126. FIU		0-4	-0.6063							
127. Northern Illinois	0-4	-0.6326
1 Like
2

AAC conference predictions using my model -

USF @ Cincinnati 	73% Cincinnati
UConn @ UH		97% UH
UCF @ East Carolina	63% UCF
Memphis @ Ole Miss	92% Memphis
Navy @ Air Force	57% Air Force
SMU @ Temple		89% Temple
Tulane @ UMass		90% Tulane
3

Your model shows a 92% chance of a Memphis win at ole miss? Da model is broke!

4

Looks interesting

5

Pretty cool work. There do appear to be several weird outliers based on passing a human eye over it, but the “numbers geek” part of me is intrigued.

6

Nah, Ole Miss is broke!

Stuff like Memphis #9 is the price of not using any preseason data. My poll rewards teams that dominate defensively and get tons of turnovers, so teams like Memphis that break subpar competition in half early on get rewarded. UH’s blasting of Texas State puts us in the same category.

These aberrations will fall off as time goes on because not every game is going to end 52-9 and the poll gets really good at predicting the playoff field. For example, my final regular season poll last year -

  1. Alabama
  2. Oklahoma
  3. Clemson
  4. Michigan State
  5. Ohio State
  6. Stanford
  7. Iowa
  8. Houston
  9. Western Kentucky
  10. Florida State
1 Like
7

It’s the price of not properly factoring in the fact that Memphis has yet to play anyone with a pulse.

Massey has Ole’ Miss at 82% to beat Memphis. Vegas has the Rebels as a -14.5 point favorite. Memphis at 92% = BROKE.

8

¯_(ツ)_/¯