Conference Championship

I know there really isn’t a point because it is such a long shot, but I was trying to break down what needs to happen for us to go. There isn’t a path anymore with a 3 or 4 way tie where we get the spot mainly because of the two losses in the West (unless I missed something or tiebreaking changed from 2015). The only way is for Navy to lose 3 of their remaining 4 conference games. USF is a possibility and Tulsa could shock them, other than that @ECU and home against @SMU are the other games. Then of course we have to run the table along with Tulsa and SMU dropping one more conference game. According to Massey, there is about a 5% chance all that happens. They still have us as huge favorites over UCF and Tulane, 50% against Memphis. They see Navy as underdogs at USF and surprisingly only small favorites over SMU. With that said, if Navy doesn’t lose to USF it’s all over and the percentage drops to less than 1. (roll in the “so you’re saying there’s a chance” meme)

I’m just hoping our team gets back on track and smacks the heck out of UCF tomorrow. If we do, we might be back in the top 25. If we get back on track and the conference isn’t winnable, every player and coach will have their sights on Louisville.

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All good points. We can’t change what has already happened, but how we finish out this season will be very telling about this team and the coaching staff. It’s tough to right the ship when things are spiraling out of control. These last 3 games plus a bowl game is where we’ll find out what these guys are really made of. A dominating, double digit win over UCF might be just the thing we need to get some mojo back.

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Thanks for the rundown. Not looking great, but stranger things have happened. Just got to win.

New rough calculation using Massey Ratings win percentages gives us about a 17% chance of winning the West. Navy has to drop 2 more of their 3 left in conference, looks more possible. SMU still has to drop another, but not worried about that. The new threat is Tulsa could run the table as they are favored in every game but the Navy one.

Isn’t there a rule that the G5 team has to be ranked in Top 12 or near there to qualify? Even if we manage to pull it off and jump ahead of Boise (which has a soft schedule for the rest of the year) the Committee could still bypass us - I think. Anyone?

No, that was under the BCS. Now the highest ranked conference champion from the G5 (no matter where they’re ranked) gets the NY6 at large slot. I think it’s entirely possible Navy could lose 2 or their next 3, but may not matter if Tulsa keeps rolling. And if Western Michigan wins out, not sure we would pass them. I think we’ll jump Boise if we beat Louisville.

I don’t think Western Michigan has a good enough schedule. The committee values good P5 wins more than anything for G5 schools. The only question I have is what if no G5 is in the top 25? Does a team still get a slot? Would the committee just select a team?

Even if there isn’t a G5 team in the top 25, they just select the best of the conference champions.

Well, we were favored in every game but Louisville about 4 weeks ago…

The playoff committee will rank as many teams as needed until all NY6 bowl slots are filled.

Western Michigan does have wins at Northwestern and at Illinois so they have the pedigree if they go undefeated. Long way to go though.

Northwestern is 4-4 and lost to FCS Illinois State. Illinois is hot garbage. The MAC is a steaming pile of meh.

I think a 11-2 AAC champ Houston with wins over OU and Louisville gets in over a 13-0 Western Michigan.

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I agree; was just pointing out that their schedule isn’t “Baylor” like. Houston should get in over them in that scenario.

I don’t think they go undefeated though and may even lose tomorrow at Ball State. If not, they have a tough game against Toledo later in the year and then the MAC Championship against Ohio

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