The preseason S&P+ projections are a simple mix of three factors: recent history, returning production, and recruiting. To come up with 130-team projections, I create projected ratings based on each factor. Here’s how the process works:
Recruiting is easy. I create a rating based on these two-year recruiting rankings. The recruiting-based projection makes up about a quarter of the overall S&P+ projection.
For returning production, I apply projected changes (based on each team’s returning offensive and defensive production, which are on different scales) to last year’s S&P+ averages. The projection based on returning production accounts for a little more than 50 percent.
For recent history, I get a little weird. I found last year that the previous year’s S&P+ ratings — which make up the starting point for the returning production figures — were carrying a little too much weight. So what you see below is a projection based solely off of seasons two to five years ago. Recent history now carries less weight in the overall formulas, under 20 percent.
I feel the S&P+ relies too heavily on recruiting rankings in the offseason and tends to severely miss the boat on G5 teams. Tends to be especially true since most recruiting rankings don’t include transfers. It tends to be a better measure once the season starts.
We are doing a little bit of both. We are changing our offense completely, have a different offensive coordinator and defensive backs coaches and we have no clue who the starting QB will be next year. I don’t feel like keeping Applewhite as a head coach, exactly gives us a leg up on UCF’s coaching change.
I would be more concerned if this was another 1st time OC, a re-tread of someone unsuccessful as OC in past stops or if Major did not say he would let the OC run the show.
Hopefully, the defense progresses or is “good enough” while the offense makes major strides. All that said, I am not going to worry about projections for the season just like I am not concerned about where the final recruiting rankings had UH.
I’m in favor of not having any rankings until week 6. Any rankings done prior to that week are nothing more than a shot in the dark and only has the effect of suppressing really good G5 teams to the point where they can’t possibly catch up.
