As a Michigan fan, I don’t blame you for supporting this reasoning. There is no reason for you to do a deep dive into recruiting rankings if you are often near the top. What we find as supporters of a G5 program, is that most of the recruiting rankings are lazy. They often identify a recruit’s worth based solely on which schools are giving offers. We have had threads almost every year that keeps track of individual recruits ratings on several services and one thing has been certain, when a recruit that has several P5 offers, commits to a G5 program his rating goes down and when a recruit switches from a G5 commit to a P5 commit, their rating goes up.
So the question is, does anyone in this conversation really believe that KenPom and Sagarin had accurate information in regards to the newcomers Alley, Hinton, Gresham and Jarreau? Their job wasn’t to replace Gray and Devin. It was Armoni and White’s jobs to replace those two, Brady, Robinson and Davis’ job to pick up any slack and the new faces job to replace or improve on Armoni and White’s contributions off the bench.
It wasn’t just a one year thing. It’s been an every year thing with many prominent teams. Less teams in football so I use it as an example as it’s easier to notice the trend. This year in preseason rankings UCF starting with a lower rating and Auburn moving up in the ratings. Two years earlier when Houston moved down in the ratings before their first game and Florida State had moved up.
It just makes more sense to let the ratings be fluid. Leave teams where they ended one year to start the next. Unless the entire team and coaches have changed, they earned those ratings from the previous year and no bias should be injected especially if they are weeded out eventually anyway.