I’m not disagreeing with you, just saying where the main blame can be placed. Texas is just as culpable in this, but all of the schools are culpable as none of them stood up to the networks, nor did they fight for and of the expansion candidates. If Texas had said they want UH, and really wanted UH, I’m sure a deal would have been brokered somehow. They didn’t feel like dying on that hill for whatever reason and even Governor Abbott called them and the conference out on it.
In the end, if the networks had given the OK to expansion, something would have happened, and Houston probably would be in because of Gov Abbott. The networks were very against it and none of the conference members fought them on it, including Oklahoma, who started the whole thing.
As far as why we’re not in other conferences, bad timing has a lot to do with it. When the Big 12 was created, our school athletics programs were in a shambles. Hell, a few years after, fans were scanning their tickets multiple times to ensure we would stay above the attendance threshold that had been put in place. It’s pretty obvious why we were left out at that time and probably any time between then and 2009. Was it fair that Baylor got in over us? No, but that’s Texas politics for you.
We were able to take advantage of the Big East defections in 2011, but the Big East pissed off ESPN and ESPN decided to assert their power and effectively neuter the Big East. Of course, without them neutering the Big East, we probably wouldn’t have been invited as Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, TCU, and Notre Dame probably don’t leave. The Big 12 didn’t want to have the same thing happen to them by either Fox, ESPN, or both which is why the decision was made not to expand.
We had dalliances with the SEC in the past, but nothing came to fruition. Now that the Aggies are there, we have no chance as A&M will let Tech and Texas in, but probably no one else. LSU’s probably in the same boat.
We don’t meet the B1G academic requirements right now and don’t have enough of a brand for them to overlook that. B1G is all about academics first. 10 years from now, who knows; maybe we can get in position by then, but we’ll need help from the state which we’re not getting.
Big 12 already made their decision. If expansion opens again, and we haven’t fallen off, we’ll be one of the first added. However, the TV contracts last through '25-'26 so there’s not much we can do on that front. They know what we offer and that we want in.
Leaves two possibilites: ACC and Pac 12. ACC is bloated right now. Unless they are willing to go to a 20 school conference and break into 2 10-team divisions, we probably don’t have much chance. They’re crazy enough to try something like that in the future, especially to get their fledgling network off the ground, but they aren’t going to move until Texas does something. The ACC and Texas are both ESPN entities, Texas matches their academic profile, and it would allow Texas to finally be with Notre Dame. The only thing that really holds Texas back is Texas politics; will Tech, Baylor, TCU boosters allow it? That’ll depend on what the offer is to Texas and for those 3 schools (and possibly Houston).
And, finally, there’s the Pac12. Pac12 won’t make a move until Texas and Oklahoma decide to do something. Yes, there was friction in the past, but the Pac 12 needs markets and brands if they move east and they aren’t going to pass up the opportunity to pass up the two biggest available. We are building ourselves to match Pac-12 research and academic standards and are pushing hard for the state to allow that type of growth. When it’s time, we will make a strong case to be included in an expanded Pac12.
In the end, there’s multiple entities to blame for why we’re not in a P5 conference. Blame past UH leadership, blame Texas politics and politicians, blame the networks, and blame UT and OU for having too much sway over our future both directly and indirectly.