Not much coming out since last week, but had enough today to throw something together. SI had a nice article about the AAC and kept mentioning that Houston is likely to bolt, even throwing in a paragraph about what the conference would have to look at after they did. Also, the UT and KSU SGA’s both are looking at protesting BYU to the Big 12. Finally, in the Twitter Musing section, Tommy Tuberville made an interestingly worded comment about how expansion may already be decided and Tim Montemayor got news from his “sources” regarding expansion that go in a different direction:
The AAC’s future is built on more than just Houston and Herman. It’s built on the next tier of teams, which could anchor it in a post-Houston world: South Florida, Temple, Cincinnati, Navy and Memphis, which hired Arizona State offensive coordinator Mike Norvell last offseason. It’s built on young coaches like Temple’s Matt Rhule and South Florida’s Willie Taggart, coaches whose teams would be smart to pay up to keep them when the time comes. Not every school has Houston’s checkbook, but they need to give their coaches reasons to stay—reasons beyond a hope and a prayer of joining the Big 12.
OK, my thoughts on Montemayor’s series of tweets. First of all, he’s as believable as all the rest of the guys like Flugaur, Dude, etc so take everything with a grain of salt. However, he’s pretty tied into BYU and seems to have some “Texas” sources, whether that means UT or not, I don’t know.
On it’s own, his news seems out there and different; very pro BYU. Tie it into Flugaur’s info and the picture starts to fill in. We all know that UT & OU have been at odds over this as that’s been made public by Boren on many occasions. Flugaur has been getting info from “OU” sources that are saying that OU wants 4 teams - BYU, UH, Cincy, UCONN. Montemayor is getting info from “Texas” sources that are saying that UT wants 2 teams - BYU & UH. From what Monty is saying, UT may be winning the battle as they’ve been able to cobble together 8 votes for BYU and 7 for UH (only OU, OSU, and WV are holding out). This would make sense from a network battle as ESPN would probably have no problem adding BYU (an ESPN client) and UH (shown to be a ratings hit) and be done with it. Fox, who funds OU’s 3rd tier, has been rumored to want the East Coast which UCONN would bring while Boren has had a fondness for Cincinnati via the messages that he had sent back and forth to former-prez Santa Ono. This would get OU into more valuable recruiting ground. OSU would stick with OU while West Virginia may be on their side to hold out for a travel partner in CIncy/UCONN. It sort of makes sense, but as far as no expansion, there’s still a month to the president’s meeting so plenty of time to work things out if they are going to be.
In regards to the alternative plan, that’s an interesting topic I hadn’t seen before. From the sound of it, UT, Tech, Houston, BYU, Baylor?, TCU?, others? would look at moving on? Pac-12 maybe? Would the Pac-12 stomach BYU in that scenario? Intriguing and would sort of answer the question about the UH charter plane that went to Provo then Austin last month.
OK, tinfoil hat off. Still no word from anyone official and still a month before the president’s meeting.
Uhhh … I am hearing rumors on the internet that even though the Pac12 has never been warm to including BYU that many of their schools are scheduling the mt cougars for future games regardless.
Interesting … if a no expansion should occur … then the pull the plug and and scuttle the Big12 sounds like the only alternative the 40 acres has … now rather than later … why extend the agony until 2025 … staying at 10 is the death knell for that conference …
But then …
Would the Pac take 6 instead of 4 and 3 bible schools to boot!!! … interesting. The horns would need 4 to scuttle else the Big12 is still intact.
Now it can be seen why I have not recently become a sooner or a poke fan … both Okla schools have apparently turned on our coogs and are most likely blocking our entrance.
WVa appears to be the KEY school for the horns getting both UH and BYU in under the gun … especially if they are faced with being left alone in the middle of nowhere without a P5 being the least bit interested in them should the Big12 faulter.
I just checked and you’re right; BYU does play just about everyone in the PAC 12 in the next few years. Only need to schedule Oregon State and Colorado:
I’m not so sure that the Oklahoma schools are anti-Coog, more like anti-Horn. They’d be willing to take the Coogs, but they want to throw their weight around a bit and get what they want in the deal. Instead, Texas has gotten the upper hand by demanding the Coogs (which many thought would be a sign of weakness and instead has shown their strength) and then ESPN came in and said, we only want two. BYU has the votes and the rest of the schools are going along for the money and to hopefully “save” the conference or to make UT happy for whatever comes next. OU’s power play has blown up in their face and they see that UT, just like always, still holds all the cards and they aren’t happy about it. So OU wants to take their ball and go home, but they’ve opened the door and the Coogs busted it in by not only beating them on the field, but showing that we are a prime time player on the national stage (which also blew up in OU’s face since we weren’t supposed to be good when they got around to playing us).
So, can the rest convince West Virginia to say yes to the Coogs and force a vote? Knowing UT, they can and will. Will OU be happy, probably not and that’s when the dominoes begin to fall. Funny that OU was the one all along pushing this and are the least happy about what the results may be.
If UT wants Houston in, they have enough votes to veto anything Oklahoma can put up there. I agree that if the Big 12 doesn’t expand at this juncture, it dies and Oklahoma must know that. OSU must know that also, and they as well as Iowa St and Kansas St. have the most among the potential “no” votes to lose. Baylor and TCU have the most to lose if Texas isn’t happy, so they’ll go along despite their true feelings.
Looks like UT will get a pick (Houston) and OK will get a pick (Cincy?)
I’m afraid that in order to pacify the networks, the Big 12 will not expand, blackmail the networks for more money but less than the $20 million per school they are contracted for if they expand and thereby putting UT in the clear because it’s not there fault. I hope I’m wrong.
I’ve heard from Pac 12 fans that they don’t want to expand until forced, unless UT is interested. What if UT is now having enough of OU and decides to offer themselves to the Pac again? This time they can honour their relationship with Tech, bring their two favorite expansion candidates, and not have to hang on to Baylor or TCU. They all want to get rid of Baylor, and many feel TCU was a desperation add that didn’t help with markets. No reason to throw both of them another bone. Pair BYU with Utah, Tech with Colorado, and us with the horns and it seems to fit the Pac model just fine. No worries about academics in Oklahoma, no complaints about five Texas schools in one power conference, and gets the Pac out of the geography trap.
I don’t know. Could be. But looking at this season so far, it looks like there probably isn’t going to be a Big 12 team in the playoffs. They are steadily losing market share, and the ACC and the B1G just got fancy new tv deals.
The Big 12 kinda looks like the Big East around '05. It’s hard to see how they can milk a better ESPN deal at this point with less leverage than when they got the first deal.
It could be OK is playing hardball to force Texas into some kind of trade. Boren has been banging the drum for expansion loud for years now, its hard to see him giving up. Perhaps the aversion to Houston is manufactured as it wasn’t there prior, and I doubt losing one game would sour anything with long term implications, and he just wants something else Texas must agree to. A trading horse if you will.
I would find this hilarious if the stakes weren’t so high for the Coogs. OU stepped into the ring with the UT juggernaut and apparently wasn’t up to the challenge. For literally the first time (and likely only time) in my life, I’m rooting for UT to win something.
I’d say Texas and possibly Tech - Pac 12
WV - ACC
OU would like Big 10 but with who? Kansas? If they can’t, SEC
That leaves OSU, KState, Baylor, TCU, and Iowa St possibly SOL.
If the other conferences throw open their doors, who knows? But they probably don’t want to dilute the brand. The rump schools lack market share that can be picked up with their more attractive neighbors. Its rumored that OSU has to go wherever OU goes, but that isn’t a law. It may be the legislature of OK would require it. In that case the SEC becomes likely.
But still, one would think that the lower schools would realize that a dissolution puts them in jeopardy and do anything to keep that from happening. OU and Texas have to realize that they’ll never get to run a conference again the way they do now. Seems like a lot to lose.
Texas to B1G. Maybe Kansas to B1G as they are both AAU.
OU goes SEC and that is their only option. PAC wants into Texas not OK.
Everyone else in the B12 is proper fcked.
If PAC really wants into Texas and Houston is still on the board, then they take UH and maybe Tech but really, who in their right mind would think Lubbock is good for recruiting players to the west coast?
If PAC doesn’t get Texas then their choices in Texas are extremely limited. No one else except Houston gives them better access to Texas recruits.
My dream: B12 implodes. Texas/Kansas to B1G. OU/UH to SEC locking down East Texas/Houston/Oklahoma. This gives every SEC team a trip to Houston/A&M every single year to recruit Texas. Everyone else in the B12 joins a super AAC/MWC best of conference which would actually be a pretty good conference.
Honestly I think these last few reports are just for show. I believe these are guys with Ok connections. Probably what is happening is that OU wants something and is making strategic leaks to put pressure on Texas to get what they want (14 teams?)
UT telling then what the conditions are for their joining the conference. It might be more likely to succeed than the last time they talked, without OU to make demands.