Fair analysis from an OU fan on Reddit...UH & BYU "top 2" choices

It’s a long read… but a pretty fair, comprehensive analysis of Big12 choices. He uses a lot of different criteria, and has a decent point/scoring system.

Kind of a non-brainer conclusion… but UH & BYU are the top 2 choices that make sense.

After that, everyone is fairly close

Due to pressure from ESPN and Fox, the B12 might just add only 2 teams. Don’t forget that the networks will have to pay the B12 additional money for each team they add. I think the figure is ~$30mm/yr for each additional team. While $60mm/yr for UH and BYU might be agreeable to ESPN and Fox, $120mm/yr might leave the networks feeling like they’re being fleeced by the B12. Especially if team #3 and #4 haven’t proven they can bring TV ratings like UH and BYU have.

I skipped to the bottom when I saw he was using S&P+ in his calculations. Horrible thing to include. That rating system is an absolute joke.

Also, I doubt the tv viewer numbers are accurate. Swear I saw some a week to two ago that were very different and had UH with much higher numbers.

Coog Red or Coug Blue for title game!! Bring it bizotch!!!

That would be fun. We owe them for that one or two point loss at NRG a few years ago that we should have won. Would be a good atmosphere for a championship game seeing how they travel well.

I have to say, I had never given that any thought. But it makes sense and that concerns me. Our big challenge is getting past the non-Texas schools. This just makes it harder. If they are not already doing so, (and I’m sure they are) our leadership needs to double down on maintainging support from our political supporters, the Houston delegation and the governor and lt. governor. It is going to get tense as we head to the line and other factions will be calling on Austin. Take nothing for granted. Now, if only you hadn’t mentioned ESPN.

I’ve been reviewing various rating systems. The good news is that UH almost always comes out in the top 3 and is No. 1 in several of them. That gives us a more or less objective measure of our credibility. What concerns me, however, are the subjective measures. We’re going to have to pull out all the stops when dealing with opinions and attitudes. But the data is clearly in support of UH.

I haven’t seen an in-depth analysis like this where BYU and UH weren’t #1 and #2. With the Texas politicians and UT admins on board, it would truly be a screw job if we were left out this time around.

I’m cool with only BYU and UH going to the Big 12

The only scenario where UH gets left out is a BYU/Cincy one

Cincinnati football doesn’t offer any upside! And we know football drives the conference s.

That’s my concern and will be until we sign a contract. My sense was that the northern schools would okay UH as long as they got a school in return like Cincinnati, so when it was looking like four would be invited, we seemed like a shoo-in. But really the only two schools that would be a lot closer to Cincinnati are WVU and ISU. KU and KSU are maybe 100 miles closer to Cincy than Houston so shouldn’t be that big a deal unless they just don’t want five Texas schools without adding three from outside the state. But who knows? I still think we’re probably in good shape, but I’m not as confident as I was yesterday based on a couple of things I’ve seen.

I guess you know nothing about Cinci football. They won a share of the Big East title 4 times and once in the AAC. They have won 9+ games the last 7 of 9 years. Since 2007 they are 82-35 and there are less than 20 teams that have been equal or better. If schools are supposed to get better than they are now (like what is said here about UH) then they have offer a ton of upside.

I know BYU seems like a shoo-in, but there issues with sexual assaults probably won’t play well with the Presidents, especially with the embarrassment of Baylor. Do the presidents risk admitting BYU and having to deal with another Title IX scandal or do they play it safe and go in a different direction.

1 Like

Not going to happen.

The Texas contingency would block it with their four votes.

If only 2 schools were chosen it would have already been announced.

The four schools are a shoo-in … (apparently there was money for actually 6) …

As most suspect the fourth or last choice maybe the hang up. UConn or Memphis … both will determine how the divisions will be set up … UConn would limit any variation and Memphis would not. I am guessing the southern schools are leaning towards Memphis and the northern towards UConn.

That and choosing either and the final negotiations could well be how the divisions will be set up (distributing strength evenly to both divisions and keeping rivalries intact) and whether/how it will affect travel costs.

Sound reasoning, Paw, i agree…any attempt to do a 2 team BYU/Cincy deal would be blocked…I think they go to 4, get more money and make everybody happy…well, almost everybody…slot #14 candidate losers will be disappointed…

They discussed it on XM 84 earlier this week. The consensuss was if the B12 adds 4 teams that it’s an indication the B12 is burning its bridges with ESPN and Fox. That it also means when the current TV contract ends in 2026 that the B12 will fold with the departure of Texas and OU.

NO ONE can predict what will happen in 9 - 10 years … NO ONE …

It has gone from BCS to P5s and no doubt from a four team playoff to eight and maybe more after that.

TV contracts come and go … ESPN Fox CBS NBC all have their hands in the mix like too many chefs in a kitchen.

UT/OU may leave or they may not … but I do enjoy the CoogBong’s psychic diehard wannabes and their chicken bones predictions …

I prefer turkey bones myself … :wink:

I think more and more that Texas and OU will be happy to stay…and extend the GOR…if they DO leave, we will not lack for P5 suitors.

I still think UT and OU stay as well. They like being in charge and would lose some power if they leave.

Will ESPN/FOX really be that upset? Maybe, but in 9 years, there will be different executives in charge and lots can change. ESPN and FOX may be desperate for content to fend off other new media platforms.

But, I don’t believe ESPN/FOX all that upset as they now have more live content, with wider reach, about a highly publicized league. Teams added will make product better and more watchable. In a few years, everyone will treat new teams as “P5” and forget all about G5 stigma; same as they did for TCU and Utah.

©Copyright 2017 Coogfans.com