Fresno State: How we compare


#1

So let’s talk about how we compare to Fresno State. I almost hate to do it based on another thread from today, but, here are some stats! (I rounded to nearest whole number so just relax)

Penalties:
UH: 66 total in 11 games for 602 yards or 6/game and 55yds/game
FS: 67 total in 13 games for 558 yards or 5/game and 43yds/game

My take: I don’t know if there is anything significant about the number and yardage of penalties. To me, the most important thing about penalties is the situation in which they occur. Ed’s personal foul after Myers pick at the end of the Navy game - totally inconsequential. An offensive penalty in the red zone could change the outcome of a game, which is why fewer penalties is better.

Turnovers:
UH: 20 total in 11 games or 1.8/game: Breakdown: 9 Fumbles - 0.8/game; 11 INT - 1.0/game
Under King our INT/game is 0.25 but our Fumbles/game is 1.0 vs 0.7/game before King
FS: 10 total in 13 games or 0.8/game: Breakdown: 4 Fumbles - 0.3/game; 6 INT - 0.5/game

My take: Turnovers are always a key to any game but maybe especially here with fumbles. DK has only thrown one pick in 4 games so I am comfortable with his decision making on passes.

When you look at the FPI and Efficiencies, we are almost dead even. So I think the game will be won by the team that doesn’t beat themselves.

And now, it’s YOUR turn!


(Eric Prado) #2

Here we go again!

You’re manipulating stats to shape your argument. NEXT


(Mark Jacob) #3

Doesn’t it seem logical to look at King’s stats alone in games he was QBing and not the Allen & Postma games? Of course A & P weren’t responsible for every fumble either so it’s Justin an attempt to quantify as best he can with data he has.


(Eric Prado) #4

Yes. I was just joking.


#5

No. Stats are facts. lol


#6

Last post I’m done for the day. Bandwidth exceeded. Don’t @ me! :joy:


(Patrick) #7

Big factor in this game will be finding a way to pressure Fresno State’s QB. I think I saw where they were in the top 5 in the nation at not allowing sacks.

On the flip side, our offensive line will have to protect King and try to open lanes for the RBs. We have to control the line of scrimmage to win this one.

I expect a relatively low scoring game.


#8

“there are lies, damn lies, and statistics”


#9

I think King himself fumbled once, but I’d have to check. He did throw that INT, though. And sacks! How could I forget sack stats!


(User was banned for sending threatening/abusive messages.) #10

Fresno has a solid soph LB named Allison. Ray Lewis type frame.
Really stands out when you watch them.


#11

Fresno has a good passing offense and with our bend but don’t break defense on passes, we are likely to give up a lot of yards and at least 24 points. It is why I am picking us to win in a shoot out.


#12

I dont know about a shootout. They are #9 in scoring defense and #17 in total defense. They gave up in the 40s to Bama and Washington, but no more than 26 for everyone else, most under 20

OTOH they’re #78 in scoring offense and #66 In passing (since you mentioned it)

I’d be surprised if either team scored a lot


(Monte P Gilliam) #13

i watched Fresno’s game with Boise, and i think our game will be a close, hard fought contest…with Houston winning in the end. King is more talented than their QB, and that should decide the issue.


#14

I went back and watched the ECU game and how many passes they completed against our soft zone. I doubt Fresno’s defense is as bad as ECU but the completion numbers against us by ECU were staggering. The QB Minshew was a 57% completion rate passer. Against our soft zone he was a 76% completion rate passer.

The Fresno state QB has a 61% completion number. I don’t think even we could survive someone throwing 80% of his passes. Take away the FBS team and the games against Washington and Alabama where they were clearly out matched and they lost to Boise state on the Boise home field in really bad playing conditions. and UNLV where they just didn’t play well. I think it is going to be a tough game but a lower scoring game favors us.


(Mike Higdon) #15

There’s lies, damn lies, and statistics.


#16

That even comparing UH and Fresno St says all you need to know where program is at currently. Here’s hoping to a great 2018 and a return to better days


#17

So when exactly were the “better days” in your opinion?


#18

Any season with more than seven wins and four losses.


#19

More wins than 7 and more losses than 4?

What about 2014? Regular season 7-5 and the miraculous win over Pitt for 8-5. Not good enough? To me 2014 was a successful season notwithstanding the up and downs…reminds a lot of this year.


#20

I didn’t say it wasn’t good, but our expectations should me higher than 7-4. I don’t want to be excited by seven wins.