So da^^d if we do and da^^d if we dont. Big East is at 4.5 million i believe. That being said if we get bumped from 5.7 to 10 on the next deal and Aresco calls it a wonderful deal and he couldnt have asked for better. But East goes from 4.5 to 9 did anything really change? all we did was adjust for inflation. Pac is looking really good right now and id rather play USC than Texas any day.
PAC and BIG expansion is coming, but not till 2022 or 2023, when their TV deals expire…Until then, we need to keep building and keep succeeding, just as we are doing. P5 is going to happen for us.
We’ve got 4 years to magnify our brand in order to better influence and impress the P5 conference community. We need our attendance to average 40,000 not 27,000. We need football to land in NY6 bowl games and we need our BB program to win NCAA tournament games, Sweet 16 preferably. Image and success is what attracts invitations. We need H-town takeover to capture the hearts and imagination of the city of Houston and not to be viewed merely as a recruiting slogan.
I don’t see Pac expanding into Texas, I think the best hope lies in ACC or Big 12, preferably a Big 12 with OU and UT in it.
The PAC needs Texas. They need the population centers for TV viewers and they need the central time zone to get games on in prime time on the east coast.
The pac does need a foothold in the central time zone and Texas population for the PACN. The issue is will Texas cable providers be willing to carry the PACN if UH is the only Texas program in the conference?
I do not believe UT and OU will remain in the b12. UT and ku will go big, OU and osu will go sec. UH tt kstate and new Mexico will go PAC. This gives big, pac, sec 16 each. Acc ads ND and either uconn or uwv and the new power 4 is set.
Big12 is going to break off as soon as we enter it. UT and OU are going elsewhere and we’ll just be in the same position we are now. Wanting to play them. Its like that really old episode of the Simpsons where Homer wants to be a stonecutter and then when he finally joins they make a new club that he cant join. Its going to be the same thing. Pac 2022-23
Since we’re all speculating, it would seem counter to ESPN’s stupid masterplan of separating P5 from G5 to have a conference like the AAC squarely in the middle between the two, making less than P5 but substantially more than the other G5 conferences. Doesn’t make sense. Either empower the AAC so they can be on equal resource levels with the other so-called P5 or offer similar lesser deals as the other G5 conferences. I guess when we see the actual offer from the TV people, we will see what direction things are going.
Pac only works works for Houston, if the Texoma 4 don’t merge with Pac first. If they do, the only remaining hope is the ACC. The problem with that is the ACC might prefer to pick up WVU over UH. Geographically and previous relationships with ACC programs WVU has better links.
The best case scenario (if the Big 12 folds), see UT headed to the Big 10, OU to the SEC, that will leave both Pac and ACC in a position to need Houston. Quite possibly Tech and UH both going to Pac.
I still believe that the best hope lies with the Big 12. A Big 12 that has not been relegated to G5 status by the departure of UT and OU. For the same reason that WVU is a more natural fit for ACC, UH is a natural fit for the Big 12.
Regardless, the first step and most important step in making UH attractive to P5 conference, is to make Houston a Cougar town! As someone said, that will be like carrying the 18th largest state! UH has to become the strongest player in the Houston market.
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Well said. ESPN may improve AAC’s financial position, but it will more likely be meager, as ESPN is in no rush to make any important decisions until OU and UT decide what they are going to do. Still a big wild card, IMO, is a four, 16-team power setup that would end the B12 and assure all the relevant networks of the best match-ups in prime time. The PAC, ACC, SEC and BIG would likely gain financially, and have control away from the NCAA over their own destiny.
Who is driving the train: universities or TV?
Its always been TV. They are the ones signing the BIG checks. If tomorrow ESPN tells any conference “add UH and we’ll bump up your per team payout by $X million”, do you think any conference will say no?
Heck even if ESPN offers nothing extra but tells the Big 12 that adding UH is essential, I can’t imagine the conference saying no!
No conference will make expansion decisions without the approval of the media providers.
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What did TCU avg before invite to big12?
The addition of TCU is a real head scratcher. They did have a Rose Bowl win, but even so their addition makes no sense. Apparently A&M suggested to the Big 12 that the conference take Houston.
When all this was unfolding, things were moving so fast and decisions need to be quickly. My own conclusion is that the Big 12 added TCU because Del Conte had cultivated a strong subservient relationship with DeLoss Dodds.
Add that to the fact that the Big 12 needed to add at least 1 team ASAP, and the fact that the networks needed to finalize a deal real fast with the Big 12, before OU had a chance to examine all options and potentially bolt, meant that TCU was able to get in and the networks supported their addition.
It was a unique set of circumstances that worked out in TCUs favor! I don’t see such a situation arising again.
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This is a nice way of putting it.
And this was the reason. Dodds wanted another Texas school to maintain control over the Big12 and Del Conte was happy to oblige anything Dodds wanted.
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I think there is ZERO chance of OU or Texas going to the PAC, because the league simply doesnt pay enough, compared to BIG or SEC, so no real worries about a PAC Texoma merger…as you say, OU to BIG or SEC is likely, with Texas going where they wish…BIG? ACC? SEC? its up to them. When that happens, i think PAC will make a move and include UH in a move to 16…A PAC 16 Houston team will be a national heavy hitter in FB and BB…PAC would greatly benefit by adding us and Tech.
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The best scenario for UT is to go to BIG if they dont theyll have to compete with Bama who will repeatedly run over them. Not to mention the confusion in search scenarios with the other UT. SEC benefits OU BIG UT. UH PAC. As far as TCU attendace in 2011 we are close to them and they lost to SMU.
2010
2009
2008
2007
Their Capacity is 44K. Side note we were 8k away from filling texas bowl in 07 and we lost by a TD. other side question, have they always been ranked consistently?
UT won’t go to the SEC. They see the conference as beneath them academically.
The B1G is a long shot as they probably won’t have the power in that conference that they are used to. Plus, the B1G is a FOX property which won’t make the suits at ESPN happy. The PAC-12 is a long shot at the current moment as they also are under FOX, but their contract is up in about 5 years and ESPN may make a play. If it does, UT to the PAC 12 is a very good possibility.
UT would love to join the ACC and have a deal like Notre Dame does where they go independent for football and park all the rest of their sports in the conference. Other option is that Notre Dame joins the conference with UT for all sports. This is a very likely scenario with ESPN needing a boost for their new ACC Network (and maybe using the Longhorn Network as the ACC Network). The big roadblock here would be Texas politics.
OU will probably go to the B1G if they’re allowed. SEC is enticing, but OU is a FOX brand and the SEC isn’t. There may be some pressure from the Oklahoma government, but with all their funding problems, it probably isn’t going to matter at this point in time. If this happens, Oklahoma State may be screwed unless the SEC is willing to allow them in (maybe if ESPN can convince Kansas to join the SEC instead of the B1G).
Once OU is off the table, the PAC 12 will probably make a move to get into the central time zone. If Texas is available, they’ll push hard for them and partners to join. Very likely that it could be 3 Texas schools joining them (Tech, TCU, Houston?) and 1 won’t be Baylor. If UT doesn’t go to the PAC12, things get a little sketchier on who they would be willing to add; Houston fits the mold better than other options though.
If nothing else, the remaining Big 12 schools will either keep the Big 12 moniker and purge the AAC and MWC or look for new homes. The former is the probable scenario and would probably be a deterrent to any network wanting to give either the AAC or MWC a big TV contract.
Again, things can change and there are a ton of options out there, but these are the main scenarios that I’ve herad and cobbled together. The big thing to watch is what TV networks own what properties.
I seriously cannot see Texas going west to the PAC unless something changes in the near future. The PAC influence is dwindling at the same time that the AAC is gaining in influence partly due to the PAC falling behind ever year because of their TV contracts and partly due to East Coast media bias. The PAC was left out of the Football playoffs last year and have only been in it twice in the four years. They will only have two teams in the basketball tournament this year. AAC will have three and if not for injuries at SMU and UCF would of had four or five.
I have to imagine Texas is hoping for an arrangement similar to Notre Dame with the ACC. And I could see ESPN getting the ACC to agree. This would give Texas a home for all other sports which helps the ACC Network. Half their football games against ACC competition and frees them to schedule games against the other Texas schools in other conference and to maybe keep the Oklahoma rivalry.
B1G is an option but they lose their influence. They are used to controlling a conference. I don’t know if they could adjust to being just one of the group. SEC not happening.
In regards to Texas politics, the ACC is a great solution. The PAC will move into Texas once the Oklahoma and Texas options are clearly not available. If not, they will pick up Houston and Texas Tech as both would give them a great presence in both the Dallas and Houston markets which they will need for their PAC network. After that, who else they get leads to many options.
Just my educated guess but as you mentioned earlier, it is based on the TV markets and what may make sense. I do believe with some confidence that Oklahoma and Texas are going to move to other conferences at the end of the Big 12 contract. But, we still have a few years to go and things change.
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Well, I’d if say Pac were to add Texoma 4, I would think the PAC would see a significant bump in their media revenue. Also as you pointed out in Big 10, UT would not have anywhere near the power it has in the Big 12. But in the PAC, because of the importance of the Texoma 4 to the finances of the conference, UT and OU would wield huge power!
The other possibility (although highly unlikely) is the Arizona programs breaking away from PAC and joining the Big 12. Such a move could also see the return of Colorado, which means the Big 12 could need 1/3 more program/s to round to 14/16. UH political support in Texas could ensure that UH is the 14th program added.