How I would handicap it:
The wild card is if the Big 12 implodes. If that happens I see a combination of Big 12, MWC and AAC schools forming a best of the rest conference.
OU and TEXAS refused to extend the Big 12 GOR! The only reason to do that is intention to leave. How much does OUs prez need to keep SAYING they intend to take one of their offers and go to a better conference to convince you?? Ou people arent shy about saying they intend to leave. SEC wants them, BIG wants them…they ARENT staying…When they leave, Texas will be right behind them…There is no IF, there is only WHEN…and when, is expiration of Big 12 GOR…admittedly a few years away.
There is a reason why Kansas is spending 300 million on football facilities upgrades…They are terrified about what is coming, and want to make certain they can escape to a better conference along with OU and Texas…got to make people see they are serious about FB, too.
Many parts can change that may mean the big 12 stays together.
The OU president who wanted to leave, then changed his mind and said the big 12 is awesome, is retiring.
Deloss dodds is gone.
The pac12 is falling behind.
A pac12 and big 12 cooperative rights agreement may save both conferences and keep current memberships intact.
Why would Texas and OU not extend their GOR? Because they want more money. They will demand unequal revenue sharing. What is Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor, TCU and Tech going to say? No?
Big12 grant of rights expires June 30 2025.
We should be able to predict UH being picked up by a major conference for the 2026 season. And If so that would tie it neatly with Houston spending 30 seasons on the outside looking in - 1996-2025. Knowing that, don’t believe any program deserves a promotion more than UH.
Pac 12 TV deal expires June 30, 2024.
Big 10 TV deal expires June 30, 2023.
The Big 12 has no chance.
I am curious on the correlation of these dates. What prompted these decisions? Was it merely espn negotiating with the P5’s or other factors played into these contracts? Contracts can also tell us a lot more about our exclusion from the P5’s. Is there a way for us to be “financially” attractive or replicating other Schools that previously had no chance to get into a P5? I am sure we have thought about every which way to get us more appealing to P5’s but it does not hurt to brainstorm.
PAC12 was the first of the P5’s to make a large $$$ deal when they signed their 10 year $1B contract. At the time it was signed, everyone thought the PAC12 was making a great deal as they were also setting up the PAC12 Network on their own. Problem was, the deal was too long and it quickly became an under market deal when the other conferences started landing their own. Now, the TV deal has put them in a 2nd tier behind the SEC/B1G tier and the PAC12 Network has been a collossal failure.
BIG12 was just trying to stay together and be greedy at the same time. They were able to rope in ESPN/FOX after the 4 schools left because Texas and OU still existed, but they wanted to keep Tier 3 rights because of the LHN. There was never really a plan for this conference after the other 4 left other than UT/OU want money and prestige and everyone else is along for the ride. 2025 date was set just because it seemed the right thing to do.
B1G has been strategic. They’ve gone to the table with a specific plan and it has worked out almost entirely in their favor. When they weren’t happy with ESPN, the roped FOX in and played them off each other while also getting a tied-in network for the conference. This last contract again saw them play the two networks against each other to get even more dough for even less years. Why less years? Because they saw the writing on the wall and they knew when the other conferences were going to need to renew (specifically the BIG12). Now, they can get the networks to help them bring over who they want and get even more money or sit tight and plan their next move. They’ve been planning this for a decade now and they’re about to reap a huge windfall; they know it and I’m sure OU/UT know it.
What can UH do? Not much differently beyond becoming a consistent winner in football and basketball. Problem is, we need OU/UT to shit or get off the pot at this point to start allowing the dominoes to fall where they may. Nobody will move until those two decide what to do with themselves and that won’t happen for another 4-5 years.
That’s why CMA and CKS are so critical at this point as we have to keep winning to keep that attendance high, the donations flowing, and the TV ratings respectable. CKS has already worked his magic once and should hopefully keep us in the tourney for the foreseeable future; now we need CMA to hold up his end. We don’t have any more time to wait on him getting his feet wet and I think he (or someone is making him) realize that.
I get that football and Men’s BB are the cash cows, but I think, our emerging dominance in Men’s T&F, and respectability in baseball, and golf and in Women’s T&F, golf, softball, BB, and Simming/Diving could be a bigger factor than we think. I notice conferences love to brag about how many NCAA team and individual champs they have and if UH keeps it up, in 4-5 years we could have several teams and numerous individuals.
I agree with section 230. Yes football and basketball are very important but the overall quality of the athletic department is important as well.
If you look at the overall athletic department, we are in very good shape. Football is a perennial conference championship contender, basketball is a tournament program, track is a top 10 program and probably the best sprints school in the country, baseball and softball are annual tournament programs.
Facilities are very good to excellent.
We are in pretty good shape.
Comcast is throwing a monkey wrench - they’re dropping Big Ten Network in all markets outside the Big Ten states -
That’s a fair assessment.
What is happening is simple, if you live in a state that has a Big 10 school then you will continue to receive BTN . Those states are Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Indiana, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland (including D.C.). If you don’t live in one of these states you will not get the BTN. This is the opening shots of the BIG contract negotiation and another reason I believe the BIG will come knock knock knocking on UT’s door sometime around 2021.
They want to leave their options open.
I agree with both of you and our Athletic Department, overall, is in one of the best shapes it has ever been. That can be an additional factor when conferences are looking at inviting schools, but it isn’t the primary factor I was referencing.
There are certain minimum standards that conferences want to see when inviting schools these days: academics, football attendance, tv eyeballs, and donations are huge with basketball success now moving up because of the large CBS contract.
No offense to all the other sports, and I do love to follow all of them and love their success, they don’t move the needle when it comes to other conferences considering Houston. Reason being is they don’t increase revenue (hence the nickname non-revenue sports), they don’t increase donations in a significant way, and most casual fans ignore them.
Football is the main driver behind fan and sponsor engagement that a school has and Houston doesn’t just need consistent bowl appearances, we need conference championship level play every year in order to garner interest and increase donations. CMA has to get us back to that level soon or we have to move on and try and find someone that will get us there. That’s why we fired Levine after two straight bowl appearances and why CMA is already on a virtual hotseat after a bowl appearance in his 1st year. We don’t have time to waste if we want to get where we want to be.
I would handicap slightly different.
-Staying in the AAC (65% chance)
-PAC 12 expands and takes Houston (15% chance)
-Big 12 expands and takes Houston (15% chance)
This happens only if Texas and OU leave and there is a merger of what’s left of the Big 12 and the AAC.
-ACC expands and takes Houston (5% chance)
The ACC has more mouths to feed right now than any other conference since they are giving ND a full share of the ACC network.
-SEC or Big 10 taking Houston (0% chance)
Chris, have you been skipping your meds again?
Actually meds is not a funny matter. For some that have older parents taking meds make sure they have some types of alarm(s) that reminds them to take them. Thank you for your concern red80.
I mostly agree with that, except that I would make it maybe 20% Big 12 and 10% PAC-12.
We can rule out the B1G until we become an AAU member. Even then, it’d be a less than 5% chance (some poor fools once claimed that we were being “vetted” by the B1G; whatever!).
The SEC is also a longshot.
Tell me about it. At 71 and having survived 2 heart attacks and daily taking five to stay alive, I am very familiar with meds. Even so, some times it is OK to have a little fun with it.
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