Latest on AAC grant of rights

Potential unequal revenue distribution in favor of UH, UCF, USF, Memphis in return for GoR extension. Possible up to 4x increase in conference deal size.

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Interesting… UConn probably not too happy about these events. What a bad time to go in the crapper.

Agree to it only if it expires the same day the BigXII GoR expires. That is the final round of expansion. Four major conferences and a four team playoff. Pezman and his contacts in the PAC are our last ditch effort to make the soon-to-be P4. Playoff won’t expand. It won’t need to.

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So you sign and commit to AAC before you know what the TV deal is?

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Cincinnati is also in that group.

That’s how we got this health care system we have now.

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Totally agree. It’s a good consolation for now but we need to have a window for realignment. In addition to the big 12, we need to also hope for PAC12.

Assuming a 4x increase, the total conference payout rises to $504,000,000. And let’s say it’s a 5-7 year GoR. And 10% is kept aside for Navy and Wichita State. That leaves $453,600,000 for the other 9 programs

With equal revenue distribution, you have $7.2M (7 yr GoR) - $10.08M (5 yr GoR) per team annually.

Assuming the top 5 (UH, UCF, USF, Memphis, Cincy) get 65% (split equally among the 5) that would raise their payout too $8.4M - $11.8M.

The lower 4 get $5.7M - $8M.

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Do we want to settle for $8.4M - $11.8M or hope for a P5 invite in 4 years and make $30M+? I can’t see any AAC top team signing this.

It’s case of playing the odds. If in 4 years a P5 invitation does not come 8.4 - 11.8 will look mighty good. That’s the risk. I’d say it’s worth taking the risk and see where the chips fall.

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NOT NO!!! … BUT HELL NO!!! …

We DON’T want to stay in this croaky AAC conference … and getting extra $$$ DOES NOT get us into the playoffs … that and …

We can’t keep any decent HCs or OCs for very long …

OUR ONLY HOPE is either going to an eight team playoff OR entrance into a P5 …

NOTHING less than that will be acceptable …

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I think the mythical 8 or 16 team playoff will work against us…

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Couldn’t we sign the GOR at a later date if expansion doesn’t happen for us?

I love some of you ultimatum folks. Let’s see you be a difference maker and write the program a REAL check, then you can deliver ultimatums. Tillman did, and look what it’s gotten us with coaches.

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Two thoughts:

  1. The prospect that the “more desirable” AAC schools might sign a GOR could actually accelerate expansion decisions by other leagues (presumably the Big12). If there is any real interest by other conferences in adding UCF or UH or Cincy, then this potential lock-up might precipitate a move. (I think it’s unlikely.)

  2. If UH, UCF, Cincy, etc. agree to a GOR, you can rest assured that Khator and the other presidents have concluded that P5 expansion is not likely in the near term.

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Well I don’t think the Big12 is going to expand any time soon. Remember, for each new school, they will be owed $25M from the networks. The networks told them not to expand.

To me, one of the most important questions besides the payout is whether we (the AAC) can also secure a guaranteed NY6 Bowl deal for our champion as well.

In addition to the money that NY6 Bowl will bring in, it will go a long way to separating us from the G5 and supporting our on-going P6 narrative.

If we are going with an ESPN deal for continued high-level exposure, I agree the deal should be a short one lining up with the expiry dates of other P5 TV deals. The future of live sports, as well as possible realignment, is in too much flux to sign on for longer than that.

As for realignment in the future, a buyout of the GOR can always be stipulated in the agreement as low as possible, or negotiated after-the-fact if the realignment offer is to good to pass up.

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The GOR could be a good thing for the AAC. Secures a solid TV deal for the top teams and a pretty decent deal for the lower tier teams. But a GOR will also more appealing to NY6 bowls. Knowing that the AAC champion could be UH, UCF, USF and Memphis could be worth it to them to sign a bowl deal to the AAC champion. A NY6 signing a bowl deal for the AAC champion now is too risky because schools could leave for another conference and the AAC champion could be a team that wont draw in the crowds or tv ratings.

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While a guaranteed NY6 bowl would be nice, I believe we will usually receive that anyway. Better to fight for better tie-in bowls all the way down the line.

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