New stats for CO V 19 - Suspensions will now be handed out for posting politics

[delmarred]

It has now taken 14.5 days for the world to double to today’s Covid-19 case count.

The 5-day worldwide running average ticked slightly back down to 3.95% which means it will take just at 18 days to double if it remains at this rate.

𝐈𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐧 12 𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐒 𝐭𝐨 𝐝𝐨𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐬 𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐱𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐲 6% 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝟏2 𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬.

The 5 day running average for the US fell to 4.77%, which is marked improvement from its high of 42% on March 22nd.

The 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 tested about 141,000 people between Friday and Saturday (report on this is always 24 hours behind)

The 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 has now tested 3,698,000 people in total, which is #1 most tests by FAR, but not in terms of per capita, where we are only 20th globally.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐲 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐭𝐨𝐥𝐥 continues to drop. Our 5 day running average is now below 10% down from a high of 33% on March 23rd.

…

I have put “𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱” after any single day rise that was a new high for a day. I have added it at the end of each line where appropriate.

“𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐞”, “𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬” and “𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭” are based on the percentage rise of cases.

…

𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝𝐰𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 by 82,148 to 2,347,875 for a 4% rise (Flat)
𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝𝐰𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 by 6,257 to 161,402 for a 4% rise (Less)
𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 by -582,443 to for a -100% rise (Less)
…
𝐔𝐒 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 by 27,488 to 735,287 for a 4% rise (Less)
𝐔𝐒 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 by 4,568 to 39,090 for a 13% rise (More)
𝐔𝐒 𝐌𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐬 𝐍𝐘 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 by 24,707 to 498,555 for a 5% rise (Less)
…
𝐓𝐞𝐱𝐚𝐬 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 by 889 to 18,260 for a 5% rise (More)
𝐀𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 by 18 to 1,092 for a 2% rise (Less)

𝐋𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐨 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 by 14 to 267 for a 6% rise (More)
𝐇𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 by 293 to 7,101 for a 4% rise (Less)
…
𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐘𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 by 2,781 to 236,732 for a 1% rise (Less)
𝐖𝐚𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐭𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 by 357 to 11,802 for a 3% rise (Less)
𝐂𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐚 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 by 1,386 to 30,811 for a 5% rise (Less)
…
𝐌𝐢𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 by 768 to 30,791 for a 3% rise (Flat)
𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 by 739 to 25,492 for a 3% rise (Less)

𝐋𝐨𝐮𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧𝐚 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 by 462 to 23,580 for a 2% rise (Less)
𝐕𝐢𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐚 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 by 1,046 to 8,537 for a 14% rise (More) record
…
𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬:
…
𝐈𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 by 3,491 to 175,925 for a 2% rise (Flat)
𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡 𝐊𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐚 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 increased by 8 to 10,661 for a 0% rise (Flat)

𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 increased by 3,846 to 152,978 for a 3% rise (More)
𝐒𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 increased by 4,218 to 195,944 for a 2% rise (Less)
…
𝐆𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 increased by 2,296 to 143,779 for a 2% rise (Flat)
𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐊𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐝𝐨𝐦 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 increased by 5,543 to 115,317 for a 5% rise (Flat)
𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡 𝐀𝐟𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 increased by 251 to 3,034 for a 9% rise (More) record
…
𝐌𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐜𝐨 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 increased by 622 to 7,497 for a 9% rise (Flat) record
𝐒𝐰𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 increased by 563 to 14,385 for a 4% rise (Less)
𝐓𝐮𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 increased by 3,873 to 82,329 for a 5% rise (Less)

𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬:
𝐉𝐨𝐡𝐧𝐬 𝐇𝐨𝐩𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐬’ 𝐂𝐎𝐕𝐈𝐃-𝟏𝟗 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐃𝐚𝐬𝐡𝐛𝐨𝐚𝐫𝐝
𝐀𝐯𝐢 𝐒𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐦𝐚𝐧’𝐬 𝐂𝐎𝐕𝐈𝐃-𝟏𝟗 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐃𝐚𝐬𝐡𝐛𝐨𝐚𝐫𝐝
𝐂𝐎𝐕𝐈𝐃 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭
𝐎𝐮𝐫 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝 𝐈𝐧 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚
𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐬 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝-𝟏𝟗

Information from a friend of mine on facebook who posted the information listing his sources at the end.

[NRGcoog]

Lots of data there ! It seems to paint an improving
overall picture. However if I sort the wordometer data for testing per capita it looks like the US is
around 42nd ???

USA Total 740,928 +2,136 39,084 +70 633,245 2,238 118 3,741,854 11,305

[SamHouston1 (Stephen Hancock)]

Yeah, we’ve tested about 1% of the population. Long way to go on that front.

[Coog51]

The last thread got so heated and political I hesitated to post this. But this an interview with a Swedish epidemiologist yesterday and the reporter is from the UK. You might not agree with what he says but he answers the reporters questions very respectfully. It is worth 30 minutes of your time.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/18/swedish_epidemiologist_johan_giesecke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html

[Imago13 (Ben B)]

You do realize Sweden has one of the highest deaths per 1M population in the world? and out of confirmed cases they have a 10% death rate, They aren’t exactly leading the world in good results.

[Coog51]

Ben the UK reporter obviously favors a lockdown so that issue is addressed. Listen to what the man has to say.

[Imago13 (Ben B)]

Already did. He’s wrong. Starting with they have data from 200 countries. So it is evidence based. Let alone we can look back at the Spanish influenza and also look at data. The only person touting plans that aren’t evidence based are him and his ilk.

[SamHouston1 (Stephen Hancock)]

@SamHouston1

Yeah, we’ve tested about 1% of the population. Long way to go on that front.

In addition we’re only 38th among countries in per capita testing.

[NRGcoog]

Delmar,
Can your friend explain why he says we are 20th globally and when I look at the global data we are like 42nd ? Just trying to understand why the big difference . Must be counting differently(excluding some countries ?) , using different data sets, date of data, or something ???

[ehog (The real 14th man)]

This man needs to look at each one of his neighbors and ask himself why Sweden is doing so poorly in comparison. After he has solved that, I will listen to his theories.

[Coog51]

He is asked that question. Listen to his response. Again I am not asking anyone to convert

[ehog (The real 14th man)]

Can you tell me his response. I honestly can’t give him 30 minutes when he seems so blatantly wrong.

[Coog51]

I find it interesting that this isn’t the first flu epidemic coming out of China that killed a million people

The last one was in 1968, the Hong Kong flu epidemic. It killed a million people worldwide and 100,000 Americans. The GIs brought it back with them from Viet Nam. If you read this it sounds very similar to what we are dealing with.

How 1968’s deadly Hong Kong flu left more than one million dead

[rtcoog (77386Coogs)]

My guess is it’s something along the lines of they are delaying the inevitable.

The problem with that is one of the reasons to flatten the curve is to buy time. Not only to keep the healthcare system within capacity but also so researchers can study the virus and come up with treatments. I’m not banking on it but it’s possible. What is this guy going to say if we come up with some sort of treatment over the summer and his theory of expedited herd immunity needlessly killed people?

In any event, I will continue to say you can’t apply what one country did very broadly. You can compare to its neighbors (within reason but even that is tough - see patient #31 in South Korea) but you can’t really compare a country the size of CA with the population of NC to the US. They have one city >1M and a very different culture than us. This one case won’t prove much at all regardless of how it ends up (which doesn’t look good right now).

[Coog51]

Does anyone remember the Asian flu epidemic of 1957?

1957-1958 Pandemic (H2N2 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

It killed 1.1 million people worldwide and 116,000 Americans.

I honestly don’t remember what the government response was in 1957 or during the Hong Kong flu epidemic of 1968 that killed a million worldwide and 100,000 Americans. I am pretty sure schools stayed open, I am not sure about businesses.

Given that the world’s population was much smaller then, these levels of death must have been astronomical.

[ehog (The real 14th man)]

That would make sense but, as you summed up well, it only looks at the epidemiology of the disease and not the other factors that make this disease ruinous.

[CougarRed]

Here in the US, we have reduced our activity/interaction level and have “flattened the curve.”

What remains to be seen is whether we have reduced our interaction level enough to eradicate the virus. Because we have not reduced our activity as much as some countries that went on total lockdown who are now on the “back end” of the curve.

Since March 31, we’ve had 19 days in a row of 25,000 to 34,000 new cases per day. This is the amplitude of our “cuve” but it does not seem to be receding. We had 61,000 cases over Friday and Saturday, right at the 30,000 new case average since March 31.

Starting April 7, our new daily deaths have plateaued at an average of 2000 per day plus or minus 500. We saw 4400 new deaths the last two days.

Sundays are typically light in terms of getting test results back and reporting deaths, so I would not read much into today’s numbers.

It appears as if the conversation is moving towards reopening the economy. That’s great, and probably safe in certain places with the right level of testing and tracing, but nationally we still haven’t turned the corner…

[ehog (The real 14th man)]

The goal of flattening the curve isn’t eradication, it’s to keep people alive through having the virus because there is enough supportive treatment. It actually will lengthen the time that the virus is infecting at a high rate. You just want to have a ventilator open up for every patient that needs one. Same with ECMO which has much less capacity.

One real societal goal, which no one seems to mention, is to keep the curve as steep as possible while having it flat enough to keep the treatments available. Maybe it’s too hard a goal to achieve with all of the variables that can’t be known, particularly with the limited availability of tests for the virus.

Or you could also just try to keep the curve as flat as possible and hope a vaccine comes out soon enough to render the last part of the curve immune. That’s seems depressingly distant.

[Coog51]

What did we do in 1957 and 1968 when an asian flu pandemic hit the world? The death totals appear to be about the same, in fact given that the world population was much smaller and that 1/2 the world was behind an iron curtain it would seem 1957 and 1968 should have been much more impactful. What did Ike and Tricky Dick do? I can tell you schools stayed open and I am pretty sure businesses did as well.

In fact 1957 and 1968 were pretty good years economically. Or at least the economy didn’t crater from all the dead that didn’t show up for work, which seems to be the argument for closing (the economy craters either way).

Ike and Tricky Dick, say what you will but the dudes did pandemics.

[rtcoog (77386Coogs)]

116K died in a year and we did nothing to stop it. 40K have died in a few months for COVID-19 and 1/3 of the economy has been shut down for over a month. That’s the only reason the death totals appear the same.

I don’t know how many people would have died if we did nothing but I have little doubt it would have been far more than 116K (or even 250K if you double due to growing population).