New stats for CO V 19 - Suspensions will now be handed out for posting politics

It has now taken 14.5 days for the world to double to todayโ€™s Covid-19 case count.

The 5-day worldwide running average ticked slightly back down to 3.95% which means it will take just at 18 days to double if it remains at this rate.

๐ˆ๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐š๐ค๐ž๐ง 12 ๐๐š๐ฒ๐ฌ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐”๐’ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐›๐ฅ๐ž ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ก๐ข๐œ๐ก ๐ฐ๐จ๐ซ๐ค๐ฌ ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐š๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฑ๐ข๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ฅ๐ฒ 6% ๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ž ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ ๐๐š๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฉ๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐Ÿ2 ๐๐š๐ฒ๐ฌ.

The 5 day running average for the US fell to 4.77%, which is marked improvement from its high of 42% on March 22nd.

The ๐”๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐’๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ฌ tested about 141,000 people between Friday and Saturday (report on this is always 24 hours behind)

The ๐”๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐’๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ฌ has now tested 3,698,000 people in total, which is #1 most tests by FAR, but not in terms of per capita, where we are only 20th globally.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐”๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐’๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐š๐ข๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ž๐š๐ญ๐ก ๐ญ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ continues to drop. Our 5 day running average is now below 10% down from a high of 33% on March 23rd.

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I have put โ€œ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฑโ€ after any single day rise that was a new high for a day. I have added it at the end of each line where appropriate.

โ€œ๐Œ๐จ๐ซ๐žโ€, โ€œ๐ฅ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌโ€ and โ€œ๐Ÿ๐ฅ๐š๐ญโ€ are based on the percentage rise of cases.

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๐–๐จ๐ซ๐ฅ๐๐ฐ๐ข๐๐ž ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ by 82,148 to 2,347,875 for a 4% rise (Flat)
๐–๐จ๐ซ๐ฅ๐๐ฐ๐ข๐๐ž ๐๐ž๐š๐ญ๐ก๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ by 6,257 to 161,402 for a 4% rise (Less)
๐“๐จ๐ญ๐š๐ฅ ๐ซ๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ by -582,443 to for a -100% rise (Less)
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๐”๐’ ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ by 27,488 to 735,287 for a 4% rise (Less)
๐”๐’ ๐๐ž๐š๐ญ๐ก๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ by 4,568 to 39,090 for a 13% rise (More)
๐”๐’ ๐Œ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐๐˜ ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ by 24,707 to 498,555 for a 5% rise (Less)
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๐“๐ž๐ฑ๐š๐ฌ ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ by 889 to 18,260 for a 5% rise (More)
๐€๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ง ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ by 18 to 1,092 for a 2% rise (Less)

๐‹๐š๐ซ๐ž๐๐จ ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ by 14 to 267 for a 6% rise (More)
๐‡๐จ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ by 293 to 7,101 for a 4% rise (Less)
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๐๐ž๐ฐ ๐˜๐จ๐ซ๐ค ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ by 2,781 to 236,732 for a 1% rise (Less)
๐–๐š๐ฌ๐ก๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ by 357 to 11,802 for a 3% rise (Less)
๐‚๐š๐ฅ๐ข๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ง๐ข๐š ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ by 1,386 to 30,811 for a 5% rise (Less)
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๐Œ๐ข๐œ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐š๐ง ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ by 768 to 30,791 for a 3% rise (Flat)
๐…๐ฅ๐จ๐ซ๐ข๐๐š ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ by 739 to 25,492 for a 3% rise (Less)

๐‹๐จ๐ฎ๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐š๐ง๐š ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ by 462 to 23,580 for a 2% rise (Less)
๐•๐ข๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ข๐š ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ by 1,046 to 8,537 for a 14% rise (More) record
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๐“๐จ๐ญ๐š๐ฅ ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐œ๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ:
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๐ˆ๐ญ๐š๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ by 3,491 to 175,925 for a 2% rise (Flat)
๐’๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก ๐Š๐จ๐ซ๐ž๐š ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ increased by 8 to 10,661 for a 0% rise (Flat)

๐…๐ซ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ increased by 3,846 to 152,978 for a 3% rise (More)
๐’๐ฉ๐š๐ข๐ง ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ increased by 4,218 to 195,944 for a 2% rise (Less)
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๐†๐ž๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ increased by 2,296 to 143,779 for a 2% rise (Flat)
๐”๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐Š๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐ฆ ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ increased by 5,543 to 115,317 for a 5% rise (Flat)
๐’๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก ๐€๐Ÿ๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ increased by 251 to 3,034 for a 9% rise (More) record
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๐Œ๐ž๐ฑ๐ข๐œ๐จ ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ increased by 622 to 7,497 for a 9% rise (Flat) record
๐’๐ฐ๐ž๐๐ž๐ง ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ increased by 563 to 14,385 for a 4% rise (Less)
๐“๐ฎ๐ซ๐ค๐ž๐ฒ ๐œ๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ increased by 3,873 to 82,329 for a 5% rise (Less)

๐’๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ:
๐‰๐จ๐ก๐ง๐ฌ ๐‡๐จ๐ฉ๐ค๐ข๐ง๐ฌโ€™ ๐‚๐Ž๐•๐ˆ๐ƒ-๐Ÿ๐Ÿ— ๐†๐ฅ๐จ๐›๐š๐ฅ ๐ƒ๐š๐ฌ๐ก๐›๐จ๐š๐ซ๐
๐€๐ฏ๐ข ๐’๐œ๐ก๐ข๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐ฆ๐š๐งโ€™๐ฌ ๐‚๐Ž๐•๐ˆ๐ƒ-๐Ÿ๐Ÿ— ๐†๐ฅ๐จ๐›๐š๐ฅ ๐ƒ๐š๐ฌ๐ก๐›๐จ๐š๐ซ๐
๐‚๐Ž๐•๐ˆ๐ƒ ๐“๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ค๐ข๐ง๐  ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฃ๐ž๐œ๐ญ
๐Ž๐ฎ๐ซ ๐–๐จ๐ซ๐ฅ๐ ๐ˆ๐ง ๐ƒ๐š๐ญ๐š
๐“๐ซ๐š๐ฏ๐ข๐ฌ ๐‚๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ฒ ๐‚๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐-๐Ÿ๐Ÿ—

Information from a friend of mine on facebook who posted the information listing his sources at the end.

Lots of data there ! It seems to paint an improving
overall picture. However if I sort the wordometer data for testing per capita it looks like the US is
around 42nd ???

USA Total 740,928 +2,136 39,084 +70 633,245 2,238 118 3,741,854 11,305

Yeah, weโ€™ve tested about 1% of the population. Long way to go on that front.

The last thread got so heated and political I hesitated to post this. But this an interview with a Swedish epidemiologist yesterday and the reporter is from the UK. You might not agree with what he says but he answers the reporters questions very respectfully. It is worth 30 minutes of your time.

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You do realize Sweden has one of the highest deaths per 1M population in the world? and out of confirmed cases they have a 10% death rate, They arenโ€™t exactly leading the world in good results.

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Ben the UK reporter obviously favors a lockdown so that issue is addressed. Listen to what the man has to say.

Already did. Heโ€™s wrong. Starting with they have data from 200 countries. So it is evidence based. Let alone we can look back at the Spanish influenza and also look at data. The only person touting plans that arenโ€™t evidence based are him and his ilk.

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In addition weโ€™re only 38th among countries in per capita testing.

Delmar,
Can your friend explain why he says we are 20th globally and when I look at the global data we are like 42nd ? Just trying to understand why the big difference . Must be counting differently(excluding some countries ?) , using different data sets, date of data, or something ???

This man needs to look at each one of his neighbors and ask himself why Sweden is doing so poorly in comparison. After he has solved that, I will listen to his theories.

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He is asked that question. Listen to his response. Again I am not asking anyone to convert

Can you tell me his response. I honestly canโ€™t give him 30 minutes when he seems so blatantly wrong.

I find it interesting that this isnโ€™t the first flu epidemic coming out of China that killed a million people

The last one was in 1968, the Hong Kong flu epidemic. It killed a million people worldwide and 100,000 Americans. The GIs brought it back with them from Viet Nam. If you read this it sounds very similar to what we are dealing with.

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My guess is itโ€™s something along the lines of they are delaying the inevitable.

The problem with that is one of the reasons to flatten the curve is to buy time. Not only to keep the healthcare system within capacity but also so researchers can study the virus and come up with treatments. Iโ€™m not banking on it but itโ€™s possible. What is this guy going to say if we come up with some sort of treatment over the summer and his theory of expedited herd immunity needlessly killed people?

In any event, I will continue to say you canโ€™t apply what one country did very broadly. You can compare to its neighbors (within reason but even that is tough - see patient #31 in South Korea) but you canโ€™t really compare a country the size of CA with the population of NC to the US. They have one city >1M and a very different culture than us. This one case wonโ€™t prove much at all regardless of how it ends up (which doesnโ€™t look good right now).

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Does anyone remember the Asian flu epidemic of 1957?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html

It killed 1.1 million people worldwide and 116,000 Americans.

I honestly donโ€™t remember what the government response was in 1957 or during the Hong Kong flu epidemic of 1968 that killed a million worldwide and 100,000 Americans. I am pretty sure schools stayed open, I am not sure about businesses.

Given that the worldโ€™s population was much smaller then, these levels of death must have been astronomical.

That would make sense but, as you summed up well, it only looks at the epidemiology of the disease and not the other factors that make this disease ruinous.

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Here in the US, we have reduced our activity/interaction level and have โ€œflattened the curve.โ€

What remains to be seen is whether we have reduced our interaction level enough to eradicate the virus. Because we have not reduced our activity as much as some countries that went on total lockdown who are now on the โ€œback endโ€ of the curve.

Since March 31, weโ€™ve had 19 days in a row of 25,000 to 34,000 new cases per day. This is the amplitude of our โ€œcuveโ€ but it does not seem to be receding. We had 61,000 cases over Friday and Saturday, right at the 30,000 new case average since March 31.

Starting April 7, our new daily deaths have plateaued at an average of 2000 per day plus or minus 500. We saw 4400 new deaths the last two days.

Sundays are typically light in terms of getting test results back and reporting deaths, so I would not read much into todayโ€™s numbers.

It appears as if the conversation is moving towards reopening the economy. Thatโ€™s great, and probably safe in certain places with the right level of testing and tracing, but nationally we still havenโ€™t turned the cornerโ€ฆ

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The goal of flattening the curve isnโ€™t eradication, itโ€™s to keep people alive through having the virus because there is enough supportive treatment. It actually will lengthen the time that the virus is infecting at a high rate. You just want to have a ventilator open up for every patient that needs one. Same with ECMO which has much less capacity.

One real societal goal, which no one seems to mention, is to keep the curve as steep as possible while having it flat enough to keep the treatments available. Maybe itโ€™s too hard a goal to achieve with all of the variables that canโ€™t be known, particularly with the limited availability of tests for the virus.

Or you could also just try to keep the curve as flat as possible and hope a vaccine comes out soon enough to render the last part of the curve immune. Thatโ€™s seems depressingly distant.

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What did we do in 1957 and 1968 when an asian flu pandemic hit the world? The death totals appear to be about the same, in fact given that the world population was much smaller and that 1/2 the world was behind an iron curtain it would seem 1957 and 1968 should have been much more impactful. What did Ike and Tricky Dick do? I can tell you schools stayed open and I am pretty sure businesses did as well.

In fact 1957 and 1968 were pretty good years economically. Or at least the economy didnโ€™t crater from all the dead that didnโ€™t show up for work, which seems to be the argument for closing (the economy craters either way).

Ike and Tricky Dick, say what you will but the dudes did pandemics.

116K died in a year and we did nothing to stop it. 40K have died in a few months for COVID-19 and 1/3 of the economy has been shut down for over a month. Thatโ€™s the only reason the death totals appear the same.

I donโ€™t know how many people would have died if we did nothing but I have little doubt it would have been far more than 116K (or even 250K if you double due to growing population).

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