New stats for CO V 19 - Suspensions will now be handed out for posting politics

Spanish Flu killed 675,000+ over a two year period when the population of the United States was like 1/3 or what we now have and a lot more rural than we are now. The numbers I read is that a comparison would be like 2 to 2.5 million. Now of course we have to consider that the USA did not have near the same medical facilities nor doctors nor medicine available to us today. The drug from Gildead which has fought on other virus looks very promising although even they say it needs more testing but the effects it had on seriously ill patients as a compassion use was dramatic and might be cleared for similar use to other groups. We need to keep getting people better and well even if we don’t have a vaccine.

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This not spanish flu, the death rates for spanish flu amongst the young were very high and with covid its very low. The death demographics are very similar to the hong kong flu epidemic.

We did nothing and survived.

I was just comparing the numbers not who the victims are.

Look at the numbers of the Hong Kong flu epidemic of 1968 or the Asian flu epidemic of 1957. A million people will die worldwide and a 100,000 in the U.S. maybe more given that the population of the world is much larger now. But it won’t end the world.

We didn’t shut the the schools or shutter the economy then. The difference now is we have media that 24/7 is spewing panic porn.

The mortality rate is 2-3 percent until the ICU’s reach capacity, then it jumps by three to four times as much. That would actually be around 28 million dead if we had done nothing at all in the United States alone.

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You sound like Cuomo and his rants about needing 40,000 ventilators and he ended up using a fraction of that. Hospitals can increase capacity. What did they do in 1957 and 1968 when there were fewer hospitals?

In 1957 and 1968 we had populace that didn’t look at life through bubble wrap because they experienced 70 million people dying in WW2. They knew what wholesale death looked like. They were also wise enough to realize that that shutting down schools and shutting down businesses is just plain stupid. They got through it.

Which country has produced that many tests? NONE! We’ve administered 4 million tests, Russia and Germany are next at 1.9 mil and 1.7 mil. Why hasn’t mighty Germany ramped up their production? Because they are and so are we. Truth is its hard to manufacture these tests. Its not some conspiracy.

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We were a different people back then. Life wasn’t bubble wrapped. Written by an 80 year old guy who was in college during the asian flu epidemic of 1957 that killed between 1 and 2 million worldwide.

Sweden’s outcomes on this in terms of number of cases and lives lost have been significantly worse than its Scandinavian neighbors.

Make what ever arguments you want for it, but Sweden’s strategy has produced worse results than its neighbors, and for that reason, you won’t find many people outside Sweden defending it.

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Eisenhower would have agreed with Sweden. We chose to shut down the economy, we didn’t have to. As 1957 and 1968 have shown, the argument being thrown out that even if we kept it open the dead bodies piling up would have cratered the economy is total baloney. If you adjust the death rates for population increases we are going to see about the same number of deaths in all three pandemics.

We made a choice, we cratered an economy. Like the gentleman that wrote the piece about living through the 1957 pandemic said, we will now find out what the better approach was.

Your 70 million dead was total for the World, if you want that number if every country had done nothing as you propose, it would be 500-600 million dead.
That’s just the math.

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That is not math, that is a made up number. They are finding that it is far more infectious and far less deadly.

That is not correct. The people who have tried to claim that are using faulty methodology. Those same people are saying that once their number are taken into account it is like the flu in mortality rate… except we had 0 deaths two months ago in USA and now we have 40K. Which would be a high rate of dead for our country from the seasonal flu for an entire year with no shutdown. We reached that in two month WITH A SHUTDOWN!
So it is obvious to any outside observer that anyone pushing those numbers has a political agenda.

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Coog51, how many do you think would have died in the US if we did not shut things down? Current projections are 60-70k with measures in place through May. You say the 2 million number is fake so I am wondering what estimate you are basing your thought process on.

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Fort Worth I think it was already here and spreading far earlier than anyone knew. The vast majority of people are asymptomatic or have very mild cases. It will continue to spread and the vast majority of people will not even know it.

I suspect and it is just a guess like everyone else’s, is the deaths will mirror the other serious pandemics of 1957 and 1968. Over 100,000 Americans died in both of those. We are four months in and 41,000 have died. There will be a slow down in the summer and it will pick back up in late fall and winter. We will probably get 150,000 people dying which is adjusting the other pandemic deaths by the population increase from 1968 to 2020. But its just a guess.

It won’t be these ridiculous scare numbers that people throw out there. If you take people’s scare numbers (10% of the population would have died without a shutdown) and apply it to Sweden you are saying that a million people will die in Sweden because they didn’t lock down. (Population of Sweden is 10 million). They are currently at 1,500 deaths. It is just ridiculous.

We don’t know what the fatality rate is because we don’t know how many people have had it or currently have it. We just post the number of people who tested positive. But you have to be tested to test positive.

Researchers are starting to throw out staggering numbers of people that could be infected but never show a single symptom. I’ve seen estimates from 20 percent to all the way up to 75%. If you account for these asymptomatic people, our death rate is well under 1%. However, I still don’t know if it is good or bad that we could have 75% of infected people walking around without ever showing a sign.

Makes me want to get tested as back in February my daughter had the most random dry cough come up. That lasted for approximately 3 weeks. With a spike in fever a couple of times, but nothing that ever required a doctor’s visit. My wife and I could have passed it on to her unknowingly. And her cough and fever started a week after I got back from the UK for a business trip. But my wife and I have never shown a single sign of the virus.

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As of today, Sweden has had 1,580 deaths.

Neighboring Norway has had only 171.

Denmark has had 364.

In other words, Sweden’s death toll has been anywhere from four to eight times higher than its neighbors that went on lockdown.

With all due respect, if the Swedish government’s strategy of not wanting to save lives that could have been saved (and Sweden’s neighbors have shown that many lives could indeed have been saved had Sweden similarly implemented their lockdown strategies) isn’t even a little bit disturbing to you…then I can only assume that you might be just slightly insensitive.

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I haven’t seen anyone on this thread say 10% of the population would have died without “lockdowns.” Actually I haven’t seen that anywhere.

Edit: I did see one person on this thread throw that out so my apologies. I haven’t seen that thrown out anywhere else. The highest estimate from the experts was less than 1%.

And, Sweden has put measures in place. They just haven’t been as aggressive as the rest of the world so your analogy doesn’t work. The worst case scenarios were closer to 1% (lower than that actually) in the US and were if we did nothing. Not if we didn’t do what we did. So Sweden wouldn’t be in that camp. They would fall somewhere in between the best case and 1%.

Ryon people can die in a lot of ways. Was Eisenhower insensitive when he didn’t shut down the economy in 1957? At some level you make a decision that there are inherent risks in living. The jury is still out on Sweden, time will tell. You would expect an open society will have more initial deaths. Then you have to adjust for population sizes and age differences. Time will tell.

But I can assure you that Denmark isn’t staying closed until there is a vaccine.

Hmmm…right now, I would have to say that Sweden’s government should be judged pretty harshly given how many more lives that county has lost to COVID 19 when compared with its neighbors.

Perhaps that judgment will change in the future, but at least as of now, I don’t see it.

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