The problem is starting high enough. Even if you go undefeated, there are too many teams in front of you and you don’t get the opportunity to play the teams in front of you.
It will happen when an AAC team starts in the top 10.
Chaos. #1 and #2 kept losing so a bunch of mid-level teams that normally are blocked by perception from the top five had (and lost) opportunities to stay high ranked. I think USF was even one of those teams that year.
Our best shot is in 2019. However, Washington State has dropped the ball literally overnight, so we have to count on OU being in the top 5 going into 2019.
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There is no way the committee will would place an undefeated aac team in the field over a one loss p5 champ. Have you seen how the committee ranks? Plus no one has an OOC schedule like we did in 2016.
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The premise of this thread seems somewhat delusional. There is no way that any non P5 team will be selected to compete in the current 4 team playoff system. That is - NO WAY JOSE!
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I stand by it. The qualification is undefeated. If they wait, the AAC gets stronger. The AAC has already waxed the “Cartel 5” in the NY6 bowls. The more it happens the more the call for 8 teams will happen. If they do it this year and the undefeated AAC team lays an egg. The argument is over for the foreseeable future. No 8 team playoff neccessary. They gave em shot. Turns out they’re right will be the defense to finalize it at 4.
i think the winner between an undefeated UH vs undefeated UCF would get serious discussion and consideration.
this assumes that both memphis and south florida are ranked teams and az does well in the pac 12 for a top 15 ranking
also north carolina and pitt (on ucf schedule) need to be ranked as well.
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All we need to happen is a 13-0 season with blow out wins over Texas Tech and Arizona. Oh yeah, and for Tech and Arizona to be 12-1 conference champs.
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Sad to say it, but it still wouldn’t happen.
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Meanwhile a 2 loss Alabama will still be in the Alabama Invitational.
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Your argument hinges on all things being equal. They are not and you know this. It’s about access. People act like teams can just schedule anybody. It’s a system of collusion/exclusion that makes it exponentially harder and virtually impossible for half of D1 to play for a NC. And that’s by willful effort and design. Most teams in the G5 don’t ever have the opportunity to play or beat 3 top 25 teams in a season. So to criticize strength of schedule when there is little G5’s can do about it is specious.
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I’ll partially agree with you. I think a G5 team definitely has to start out the season ranked. Then again, since the 4 team playoffs have begun, every eventual playoff team started the season ranked so it’s not just a G5 thing.
I think if a G5 team starts off top 15 they can eventually make the top 4 if a majority of the top 10 teams have losses in the second half of the season. It’s a better bet if the G5 team starts out ranked top 15, plays at least a couple of P5 teams and one or two opponents in conference play are ranked when they play.
I think if UCF goes undefeated again and three of their opponents are ranked going into the matchups, the committee could have their hands tied from resisting an invite. The committee definitely can’t balk at UCF’s attempt at putting together a quality OOC schedule.
It’s scary how you posted that as I was already countering it when describing UCF’s chances this year.
OK.
There is quite literally no way for a team to play into the playoff field, not even Alabama, because the playoff field is an invitational decided by a committee in a board room. The entire committee has ties to P5 schools, whether as alums or employees, these are people with no vested interest in selling the AAC (or any G5 team) to the rest of the committee. Thus, G5 teams are included in the system only to the level contractual obligations stay satisfied…one team, one NY6 bowl slot.
That was the biggest mistake the future G5 teams made with ESPN with the creation of the CFP - they were desperate to be included in the P5’s system that they agreed to the selection committee but forgot or didn’t think a step ahead about the composition of the committee…and thus allowed the P5 to stack the committee with their own people. Thus, we’re locked out of that board room, we’re locked out of the CFP.
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Excellent point. If there was one rep from each FBS conference on the committee we’d have a chance, I think, of seeing a G5 team.
Really, the NCAA should be sued over not giving equal opportunity to each school. Problem is, they are corrupt and I think schools are afraid if they sue, the NCAA will come back with some fabricated rules violations and shut them down.
What the cartel wants the cartel will get. This is not about sport. It never was & never will. Our exclusion from a P5 is similar to the fate of the G5 from the cfp.
actually the composition of the committee includes people who are alums of or coached at schools other than p5s
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The playoffs are not a sanctioned NCAA event. It is the ESPN Invitational. For this reason, I doubt you will ever see the ACC or the SEC excluded from the playoffs. For the same reason, I would doubt you will ever see more than one team from any of the Big 12, B1G, and PAC where Fox is a bigger media player.
Our best chance of an AAC rep ever making the college playoffs is for the conference to have a very high profile and successful season this year drawing great TV ratings and negotiating a great deal with ESPN. And then for ESPN to promote the AAC as a Power Six conference.
It is all about money. Always is.
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That was due to the BCS system. Now with the playoff system they rely on something called FPI to calculate “ratings & projections” which is a broad area. I’d assume the highest we’d get to is number 6; their computers would keep pushing us down below 1 to 2 loss P-5 teams based on their “FPI”.
It’s also important to look at who’s on the selection committee-
Joe Castiglione (OU)
Ken Hatifield (Arkansas & Rice ties)
Scott Stricklin (Baylor)
Three of the six members would be highly suspect IMO.