Official starting QB thread

Cougar Football
1

NOTE FROM MODERATORS:

Ok, QBs are a popular topic on here, so please try to keep all discussion of the QBs here in this thread if it’s the same subject. We want to make something clear about how you discuss our players.

It is OK to criticize their play: For example: Looks like QB needs to work on his throwing motion. His QB rating needs work.

It is NOT OK to issue a personal judgment. For example: QB sucks! QB is mediocre! QB is just awful! These kinds of comments are why threads keep getting closed.

Bear in mind these are AMATEUR 18-22 year olds, many of whom will never play professionally. If you have not known or been a student athlete, you may not know just how grueling it is to play a sport and also do all the other things that are required, like school etc.

Therefore it is incumbent on us to keep things civil and keep this context in mind. This is a community, this is not an anonymous comment section on a news site. Likewise some player’s family and friends read these boards. It’s pretty demotivating for them to come on hear and see their relatives being drug through the mud for simply playing the sport and sacrificing themselves for our entertainment.

So please keep this in mind moving forward and help keep threads OPEN. Thanks and GO COOGS!

=======================

On another board, I recently posted the following response to a Clayton Tune critic…

"Since you stated that a few previous UH QB’s were “elite” I thought that this might be a good cause for introspection…so I compared Clayton Tune’s prior season passing stats (adjusted from 8 to 12 games) to both KK (12 games) and GW (13 games) prior year season(s) going into their junior year (season) respectively at UH as follows:

Clayton Tune - 255 of 427 (60%) - 3,072 yds - 23 TDs vs 15 Ints (+8) - 256 yds/game - 7.2 yds/pass attempt.

Kevin Kolb - 254 of 420 (60%) - 3.258 yds - 19 TDs vs 15 Ints (+4) - 271 yds/game - 7.7 yds/pass attempt.

Greg Ward - 177 of 263 (67%) - 2,010 yds - 12 TDs vs 7 Ints (+5) - 154 yds/game - 7.5 yds/pass attempt.

So my statiscally based logical conclusions are as follows:

#1 - TD/Int - Tune was better than either KK or GW in their TDs vs Int ratio at +8 (vs +4 & +5);
#2 - Passing Yds - Tune was a close 2nd to KK in yds/game (271 vs 256) and better than GW was by 100+ yards/game;
#3 - Completion % - Tune was equal to KK at 60% while both trailed GW at 67%;
#4 - Yds/Pass Attempt - not much of a difference there; and so

at this point in there respective UH careers Tune was just as good or better than either KK or GW - and so if they were both considered to be “elite” players at QB at UH then I would have to conclude that so too is our current QB Tune."

[NOTE 1: See correction of typographical error of 28 vs 23 passing TDs for Tune. Thanks Pesik.]
[NOTE 2: See adjustment made in the post below for Ward having started only 8 games in 2014 at QB - grossed up to a 12 game equivalent.]

9 Likes
2

Good stuff. Look at Ward’s intercept ratio compared to the other two ( assuming rushing TDs are included). Explains why he was very successful here. You can score TD but if you hand over the ball to the other team, they will score TDs too.

1 Like
3

I hate pouring on Tune because he tries his hardest and is a coog, but I’ve posted it before- the bottom line is His overall career TD (pass/run) to turnover (int/fumbles lost) is around 2/1. Kolb, Keenum, Ward, King were all way above like 3, 4, 5/1 type stuff. King was like 8 or 9/1 one year. His completion % is too low and he doesn’t have “elite” wheels/elusiveness to make up for that- hence not enough positive play continuity to sustain drives or make the big play to get into the end zone. He simply doesn’t score enough TDs for the turnovers he gives up. His stats are over parts of multiple seasons with multiple coaches and players around him. He is a great G5 backup in a pinch (or perhaps middling G5 team starter - which is actually what we have been with him starting I guess). No way is he a QB that will lead THIS team with its various deficiencies, specifically OL (common at UH), to any great level. My guess is he personally makes us about 10 points worse against our opponents compared to the UH “greats” you mention above. I hope if Dana sticks with him he blows up but nothing suggests he will score a bunch of TDs and not turn it over a bunch. I will be absolutely shocked if he throws like 32 TDs to 8 Ints and adds 4-5 rushing scores and only 1-2 fumbles lost and leads us to a 10 win season (even with that sorry schedule). That type of season would be expected from the others mentioned.

4 Likes
5

I think you need to include more than one season in those numbers. We saw how good Kevin could be his freshman year. If you include Kevin vs. Clayton through their junior year, it will tell another story. We haven’t seen Clayton put it all together yet.

And, Greg’s stats above are his sophomore stats, not junior like the other two (and he was only QB part of that year so you would need to gross up those stats like you did for Clayton even if you wanted to use 2014). To compare apples to apples, you should be showing 2015. You also can’t show Greg’s QB stats without including his rushing stats.

5 Likes
6

Anyone trying to state that Tune is anywhere as good as Kolb or Ward is absolutely RIDICULOUS.

I don’t give a DAMN what the stats say.

15 Likes
7

For those folks not paying attention or having reading comprehension problems - or for those simply in denial - the above stats were for each UH QB playing in a full season before his last 2 years at UH (ie; each of their “sophomore equivalent” seasons).

And for Tom (& other uninformed or misinformed folks) the rushing stats for Greg Ward vs Clayton Tune the season before entering their last 2 seasons at UH were actually very similar as follows:

Greg Ward - 4.9 yards per rush - 44.1 rushing yards/game - 6 rushing TD’s - So his total offense was 154 yards passing + 44 yards rushing = 198 yards/game - [12 pass + 6 rush = 18 total TDs]

Clayton Tune - 3.5 yards per rush - 31.6 rushing yards/game - 5 rushing TD’s - So his total offense was 256 yards passing + 32 yards rushing = 288 yards/game - [22.5 pass + 5 rush = 27.5 total TDs]

[NOTE 1: See correction of typographical error made of 28 vs 23 passing TDs for Tune - thanks Pesik.]
[NOTE 2: See adjustment made in the post below for Ward having started only 8 games in 2014 at QB grossed up to a 12 game equivalent.]

8

The stats at the top were Kolb and Tune’s junior year. Only Ward was sophomore stats.

Edit: I see what you’re doing. Tune gets an extra year so you’re saying he’s a sophomore this year even though he’s the equivalent of a junior. I don’t think that makes much sense but ok. Apples to apples is saying how did all of them do their 3rd year (given none redshirted). They were all the same age.

Anyway, you still have the wrong Kolb stats.

1 Like
9

He is not a Junior relative to experience…thanks Apple Boy !!

2 Likes
10

Neither was Ward as a QB.

11

No Randy, Tune still has 2 years left to play at UH - so he just completed a COVID affected “sophomore equivalent” season. (You should quit trying to use Tune being asked/forced to play in a meaningless bowl game by a misguided former coach against our QB Tune.)

This is in fact an apples-to-apples comparison for the 3 UH QB’s - each in their “sophomore equivalent” season when they still had 2 more years left to play at UH. Sometimes the truth is inconvenient, or the facts simply don’t support someone’s opinion or their narrative.

Maybe, just maybe, Clayton Tune is just as good as Kevin Kolb and Greg Ward, Jr. Obviously, the next two (2) years will tell that tale.

3 Likes
12

All 3 played as true freshman and Ward didn’t start at QB until the 6th game his sophomore year. Let’s not account for that though.

This really isn’t apples to apples but you can call it what you want. It would make a lot more sense to show their third year when they were the same age. Not Clayton in his 3rd year and the other two in their second (and first as a college QB for Ward). But whatev.

Anyway, you have some other issues if you want to run it this way. You still have the wrong Kolb stats and need to gross up the Ward stats like you did Tune if you want to show it this way.

2 Likes
13

this comparison is flawed in so many ways

  1. we’ll start with the crazy bias of “entering their junior year”… you are comping the 2nd year (1st year at qb/no offseason) of ward to the 3rd season of tune at qb… because of the technicality of a free year…
    you dont see bias there?
  • im note sure but you then chose to use kolb’s junior year, which is entering his “senior year”-- the consistency of this comparison is inconsistent
  1. i just checked the math, it’s wrong… the TD numbers for tune are just wrong… tune finished the year at 15tds 10ints in 8 games. Adjusting to 12 games is 1.8 tds per game (+ 7.5 tds in 4 more games) and 1.25 ints per game (thats + 5 ints in 4 more games) …tune’s numbers should be 22.5tds (NOT 28) AND 15ints… making a few of your post conclusions just wrong

now that ive addressed the HUGE analytical flaws… there are a few other smaller ones but i dont feel like addressing those … you analytic post lacks context…

  • ill start by saying every single year of ward was drastically better than every tune year, including ward’s sophomore year with no reps at qb till he was thrown in the fire… that is not even a debatable topic
  • statistcally tune has had similar years to kolb, but we were a poor program with no talent that hadn’t won games for a decade prior to kolb’s arrival… tune is in a different circumstance… Kolbs stats were good for what was expect of houston, if tune was on ECU and produced those same stats on a 7-5 team as a junior, that is success for the circumstances and context of what is capable of ECU today compared to the last 5 seasons. Tune stats on ucf who has already established it’s talent base and capabilities would be a failure
4 Likes
14

Randy, I have each QB’s sophomore equivalent stats - at the same point in their UH career with 2 years left to play. Your comment about grossing up Greg Ward Jr’s stats is valid as it turns out that Greg started only the last 8 games at QB in 2014. In doing so, I’ve adjusted his total stats upward by 50% (from 8 games to 12 games) as follows:

Clayton Tune - Passing - 255 of 427 (60%) - 3,072 yards - 22.5 TD’s vs 15 Ints (+13) - 256 yds/game - 7.2 yds/pass attempt - [Rushing - 5 TD’s - 32 yds/game] Total Offense = 288 yds/game & 32.5 TD’s

Greg Ward, Jr. - 265 of 395 (67%) - 3,015 yards - 18 TDs vs 10.5 Ints (+7.5) - 231 yds/game - 7.5 yds/pass attempt - [Rushing - 9 TDs - 44 yds/game] Total Offense = 275 yds/game & 27 TDs

So, by grossing up Greg Ward’s stats, he is much closer, but still a little bit short of Clayton Tune’s total offense and total TDs stats - at an equivalent point in their UH QB playing careers. With 2 years still to go for Clayton Tune, let’s hope he becomes as productive as Greg Ward, Jr. was during his last 2 years at UH.

[NOTE: Greg Ward Jr.'s stats have been grossed up in the above analysis and a correction has been made for the typo made while grossing up Tune’s TDs from 15 to 23 (but typed 28 in error).]

2 Likes
15

As mentioned above by pesik, your Tune gross up is off. He played in 8 games this year so you should add the same 50% that you did to Ward. That would put him at 22.5 TD.

It doesn’t matter though. There are plenty of other issues with this analysis. JMO

1 Like
16

@WoodMarkCos
I don’t care what metric you want to compare, I’ve seen full careers from all 3 quarter backs in person (Tune still has some years). I ran on the field when Kolb won. I’ve seen Ward for many years and plus his bowl wins.

The biggest thing I see with Tune is he can’t take over games and win. He doesn’t have good decision making skills and has limited vision when scanning the field. I personally am not a fan of Tune and I hope he becomes backup. If he does start again, I hope he has grown miles better because what I’ve seen is he is the central problem with this offense along with the offensive line.

Btw, comparing Tune to Ward Jr? Ward has beat huge ranked teams. The competition of Wards coogs vs Tune’s isn’t even a comparison. You’re talking about Ward beating Louisville (Jackson), Oklahoma (Mayfield), FSU to name a few with a NY6 trophy.

Kolb was a high 2nd round NFL draft pick, went 10-4 and won a CUSA Championship plus won several awards.

5 Likes
17

Kolb was great as a freshman but struggled as a sophomore and didn’t really blow up again until his senior year.

Idk about some of the analysis here but using Kolb as an example of a big potential leap that can come later isn’t out of bounds.

Tune still hasn’t had a normal year yet where he came in as the starter.

2 Likes
18

Legacy - I loved watching Ward play QB at UH. But truthfully in his sophomore season at UH back in 2014, Greg Ward, Jr. had the luxury of playing with a number of talented future NFL players and as our starting QB, he did not play against (much less beat) any ranked teams that year (2014). Further, after Greg became our starting QB mid season in 2014, we still lost a home game against a very bad Tulane team (3-9 record) and we also lost a road game at Cincinnati. It has happened to each and every UH FB team in our history.

2 Likes
19

Look at Tune vs Hawaii in the last bowl game. Threw more interceptions than TD’s, sacked 4 times, with only 14 pts. He’s not really good.
I hope Tune can get with it. I was front row several games watching him scanning the field. He doesn’t see the receivers as well as Kolb and Ward. He holds the ball too long too. The record and score shows it all.
I hope Tune becomes a star but this is what I see. I knew Greg was special. He had the it factor Keenum had.

6 Likes
20

i dont think its fair to comp ward 1st year at qb to tunes 3rd year at qb, but id still take wards 1st year at qb

people forget the crazy circumstances of wards sophmore year

  • ward wasnt an early enrollee (enrolled in august, no offseason prior to his freshman year)

  • by the end of his freshman year had been “permenantly” moved to WR, spent every offseason rep as a WR, okorn was the anointed one

  • to start his sophomore year we get embarrassed by utsa game 1, Levine decides our bad offense needs something to spice it up, and gives ward 2-3 reps at wildcat per game-- but still mainly a WR

  • we then go 2-3 record wise; and okorn gets the flu on the practice week of UCF, levine for some reason decides to let ward get reps at qb that day…likes what he sees, but okorn still the man

  • okorn has horrible game vs ucf, throws a pick to get us down 17-6 in the 3rd…just meant as a temporary sitting of okorn he puts ward in at QB… ward plays amazing and comes 1inch short from upsetting 9-3 ucf in heart breaking fashion

  • ward starts the next game and upsets memphis (who finished top 25) less than 1 week after getting his 1st reps at qb in over a year, with no offseason, and then goes 6-2 on his campaign including one of the most historic bowl performances in UH history… that that would only be the start of his legacy here

5 Likes
21

Anyone debating that Tune is anywhere near as good as Kolb and Ward is RIDICULOUS.

6 Likes