I think it is more indicative of how weak the East Division appears to be this year that UCF would be USF's biggest challenge.
I am in agreement with Pray regarding USF. First, I don't see Strong as that good of a head coach. His last Louisville team had an unbelievable amount of talent with Bridgewater at Quarterback and a very strong defense. But we were a fingertip of beating them and the ultimately lost to UCF who went to the BCS game. He needs to put trust and leave his OC alone, who I think is good (forgot his name), and focus on the defense which is his strength. This could make USF very formidable and get Strong to a more elite level of head coach (has the potential to be this.)