Our path

Our most likely path to the American title game (without examining 3-way tie situations):

  1. Beat Tulane and Memphis

and either

2A. Tulsa beats Navy, and they both lose one of their last two

or

2B. Navy beats Tulsa, and Navy loses both of its last two.

Of the options, 2A is more likely, so root for Tulsa.

Our path to a NY6 game:

All of the above, plus

Beat Louisville
Win the American title game
Western Michigan loses its division to Toledo
Boise loses its division to Wyoming

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Boise is out already, they lost to Wyoming.

Tulsa beats Navy on saturday, that hangs a division loss on Navy. UH holds the tie breaker against Tulsa.

However, i dont see Navy losing to SMU and they play Army after the championship game.

I still think Navy has the inside track. UH has the slimmest of chances.

Go Tulsa

Navy has ECU as well right? Hopefully SMU or ECU can take them down but Tulsa seems to be the best chance.

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WAY too confusing … Tulsa beats Navy but Navy loses to Army in Philly and SMU beats Navy on a Tuesday if it rains …

Sorta reminds moi of that ole Bob Hope movie Paleface playing the greenhorn Painless Potter facing a deadly gunslinger.

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Here’s where we stand and remaining AAC games:

Tulsa 4-1 has Navy, UCF, & Cincy
Navy 4-1 has Tulsa, ECU, & SMU
Houston 4-2 has Tulane & Memphis
Memphis 3-2 has USF, Cincy, & UH

Just looking at the remaining opponents, I don’t see Navy losing two games, barring key injuries. If Navy beats Tulsa, I think they will go 7-1 in AAC. If Tulsa beats Navy, I think they will go 7-1 in AAC. So, I expect the Navy - Tulsa winner will play the Temple - USF winner in the AAC championship game. Currently, of those 4, Navy, Tulsa, and USF all have 2 overall losses and if one runs the table, I expect to see them in the Cotton Bowl. We could end up with only 2 losses also, but will not be able to play in AAC championship game unless some weird things happen in the remainder of the regular season. Its possible, but improbable. That SMU loss has probably shot our chance for the AAC and the Cotton Bowl.

The American Athletic Conference doesn’t have a true pecking order. The bowls matchups are based on best possible games and geography. UH would be in line for one of these:
– Armed Forces Bowl (Navy, if it isn’t in Cotton) vs. Big 12
– AutoNation Cure Bowl vs. Sun Belt
– Birmingham Bowl vs. SEC
– Marmot Boca Raton Bowl vs. Conference USA
– Miami Beach Bowl vs. MAC
– Military Bowl vs. ACC
– Popeyes Bahamas Bowl vs. MAC
– St. Petersburg Bowl vs. ACC

The American Athletic has secondary partnerships with the AutoZone Liberty and Camping World Independence.

Navy or Tulsa is going to win the division and the sooner people come to grips with it, the easier…
we need to get a bowl bid playing a P5 team…

Aldine, I think you are right; but, being this is college football, nothing is certain except that 'Bama will be in the CFP.

If we can’t win the AAC, I will cheer for Navy to win it; but will pull for whomever does to go to and win the Cotton Bowl. If the AAC keeps sending teams to the NY6 bowls and winning them, it will help our conference when negotiations come around. Who knows, maybe there could be shakeup and UH could be in a P6 conference without having to deal with the crumbling B12.

Of course the Navy-Tulsa winner has the inside track to win the division. But it’s by no means a certainty. Especially if Tulsa wins.

Come to grips with that.

We just have to keep going 1-0 every week, fans showing up, fans going to whatever Bowl game it is… if its not Cotton, I kinda wouldn’t mind a trip to Miami. Though, a drive to Ft. Worth would make it easier for everyone to go.

2 Likes

Dreaming a bit, but I agree with @CougarRed, need to root for Tulsa this weekend.

If we can win out and win the conference, you’d have to think, even with 2 losses, the committee would put us in over Western Michigan. Wins over the (probable) Big 12 champ and another top 10 team in Louisville would go a long way.

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I would say Tulsa beat Navy but lose to Cincy. I don’t see Western Michigan lose a game.

They still have Toledo and probably Ohio in the MACCG.

Just beat a top 5 team like Louisville. That would go a long way.

I’m not sure Cincy could beat a high school team right now. They’re going to get crushed by Tulsa.

I thought the same thing about SMU playing UH. Anything can happen even if I expect it not to…

One game at a time, and let the chips fall where they may. I’m hoping we back in, of course.

I’m dreaming of a conference championship and a NY6 bowl versus Aggy.

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