Phil Steele Top 40 - #3 Oklahoma, #2 Alabama, & #1 Florida State

College spun posted the remainder… we are not the top G5 if this is accurate.

I got the magazine today. Now I need a magnifying glass.

We are 20th in his Top 40 which predicts where he thinks teams will finish. But we are 35 in his “Power Poll” which is a combination of 9 different rating systems.

As for units, our QB unit is 10th. WR, RB and OL are not Top 50. DL is 37ish (going from memory. LB and Special Teams were mid 20s. DB not rated.

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I would love to see his preseason prediction from 2015 alongside the final AP poll.

Steele’s Power Poll from 2015
https://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2015/JULY15/DBJuly23.html

Final AP Poll from 2015

So, his biggest miss was Houston, which he had rated #76 in his Power Poll and finished #8 in the final poll. Steele, like Bill Connelly, tends to base his ratings on luck factors, star ratings, etc. None of those account for coaching or guys playing above their star rating (William Jackson being a 2 star yet ending up as a 1st rounder, Elandon Roberts coming out of nowhere, Case Keenum, etc).

Added the rest of the rankings up in the original post. I’ll keep linking the previews as they come out.

Houston is indeed #20

http://philsteele.com/Pdf/2016_Top_40_Countdown/20_Houston.pdf

I will say this, Steele did call Tom Herman and discussed the roster prior to publishing. The starting lineup posted is what Herman provided to him. Some observations:

  • Interesting that Isaiah Johnson is listed ahead of Samples, Marcus Oliver is the starting LT, Carter is starting over Singleton at DT and the DB’s are currently Winchester, Wilson, Wilson, Davis, and K, Williams. But then again, this can/will change prior to Game 1.

  • Every game we play this year is on artificial turf

  • Texas State, SMU, and Tulane all have bye weeks the week prior. Our bye week is prior to Tulane so that’s not too bad, but that SMU game could be a battle. Last year, UCONN had a bye week prior to our game with them.

  • Steele is very high on Houston, but his metrics are all saying that the forced turnovers will drop off. He does say this is probably a better team than last years.

19 - Miami, FL

http://philsteele.com/Pdf/2016_Top_40_Countdown/19_Miami_FL.pdf

18 - Baylor

http://philsteele.com/Pdf/2016_Top_40_Countdown/18_Baylor.pdf

I like that they call out Briles as coach, which clearly means this was printed a while back, and they have not been able to update it.

No its pretty clear that Briles is indicated as being let go in the coachs section.

This Baylor team has lost athletes and the winningest Coach in the History of their school. Baylor won’t even be sniffing the top 25 after the season is over.

Even without Art the bears will continue to win. There’s plenty of talent still left on the team. Now, if injuries start piling up they’ll be in trouble. Almost all of their top commitments from their 2016 class are gone and if their 2017 class doesn’t improve they’ll be in a world of hurt starting next year.

You are right that short term they will keep winning. They will be competitive this year and next, but starting in 2018 they will be on the decline. The two year gap of talent will make for a long term return to their old basement home in the standings.
It is one thing for a Michigan, OSU, or Texas to have a couple of bad years in recruiting talent. It is completely different for a traditional bottom feeder that is in the middle of nowhere and surrounded by recruiting Giants.
after the bad years start combined with UT, ATM, TCU, and UH recruiting well Baylor is doomed.

I have Baylor starting 5-1 and ending the season 5-7. Conference play blows them apart as a team. The hate from stadium to stadium is something these players will not be prepared for.

Yeah, my bad, stopped reading after the first two lines in the coaches section, because I don’t really care, but I was curious how they were ahead of us.

17 - Mississippi

http://philsteele.com/Pdf/2016_Top_40_Countdown/17_Mississippi.pdf

16 - Boise State

http://philsteele.com/Pdf/2016_Top_40_Countdown/16_Boise_St.pdf

Experts sure seem high on Boise State, but I’m not sure I see it. Not sold on life after Peterson.

They were high last year too…and the one before that…lol

I’m not sure when we’re going to learn that the “experts” are nothing but a bunch of safe bet makers and that no one really has any freaking clue what’s going on.

15 - UCLA

http://philsteele.com/Pdf/2016_Top_40_Countdown/15_UCLA.pdf

14 - Iowa

http://philsteele.com/Pdf/2016_Top_40_Countdown/14_Iowa.pdf

Boise being #16 means they are the NY6 representative. Lets hope not. If not UH then I want any AAC team. We need that spot to be our conference enough years that we get a major bowl to tie in with our champion.

Looks as if Boise will have trouble skating through the MW with SDSU and Air Force both looking pretty tough. Boise plays at AFA and might play SDSU in the conference championship. Decent and improving programs like Colorado State, New Mexico, and Utah State (all went bowling) are divisional foes. The Broncos also get what should be a very good Washington State team as well as BYU (Taysom Hill is back for his 16th season) and Oregon State. Best scenario for Boise, IMO, would be to go 7-1 in conference and split with Wazzu and the Mormons.

Michigan State -13
http://philsteele.com/Pdf/2016_Top_40_Countdown/13_Michigan_st.pdf

Michigan - 12
http://philsteele.com/Pdf/2016_Top_40_Countdown/12_Michigan.pdf

11 - TCU

http://philsteele.com/Pdf/2016_Top_40_Countdown/11_TCU.pdf