PPG Guesses for 2018


#1

So, there has been a lot of talk on here about how much Briles and Clements will improve the offense this year. I’ve seen prognostications about a vastly improved running game, wider OL splits, more deep passes, etc. What I haven’t seen much of is how the defense will play a role in better offensive numbers. So, for this thread, I’d like to see what you guys think our points per game average will be this year given the new offense and how the defense will help out, along with a short explanation for why you think so. I’m only looking at the 12 regular season games since we have no idea who we will play for a possible CCG or bowl game. Here’s my opinion.

42 ppg

Not only do I think our offense will score many more points, and much quicker than last season, I also think our defense will give our offense more opportunities to score. In Ed’s last year and with all the transfer help (especially in the secondary), I expect our defense to be even better this year than last year, especially in terms of forcing turnovers and 3-and-outs. Last year our putrid offense that couldn’t sustain drives forced our defense to be on the field way too much. That won’t be the case this year. I think there will be 3 games where we score 60+ (Rice, TSU and ECU) and I don’t see us scoring less than 30 against any of the teams on our schedule.


(Mike Higdon) #2

I am sure our defense will be better and will give the offense more opportunities. Last season, the opposition had too many sustained drives that added to the reduction of offense by the Coogs.

When the offense scores quickly or turns the ball over quickly, and then the defense allows sustained drives time after time, it drains the D and the thing just snowballs. If the D can consistently get 3 and outs, it doesn’t matter how quickly the O scores because they will still be fresh.


#3

I agree, Mike. I just think our defense will be noticeably better this year. Watkins will help out immediately at corner and Anderson is a ball hawk at safety. Plus we now have Chambers alongside Ed on the DL which will reduce double and triple teams on Ed. I think we’ll be able to be much more aggressive this year on defense because of the additional defensive talent and the confidence that the offense will be able to score more easily.

Also, we saw during the Briles years at UH and Baylor how that offense can wear down an opposing defense in no time. So even if our defense gives up more PPG than last year, I think we’ll also see more turnovers and more scoring from our offense. This is the defense I wish we could have had during the Keenum years.


#4

38.6 ppg


#5

That Utah receiver transfer looks nice when he was at Utah. Nice size and speed.


(Alfred Matthews) #6

with the talent we have on offense we should at least average 40 PPG. He got FAU to average 40 PPG year 1 in the CUSA. Only good defense we will face this season is USF and maybe Memphis, Tech and Temple.


(PortlandCoog) #7

We have a chance to be very very good this season. Obviously the spread option didn’t work well enough under Applewhite (nor did it for Herman at Texas this past season).


(br5exg) #8

I can’t wait for the meltdown in the this place the first game the team doesn’t score 40 points.


(Ben B) #9

I’m going to say 47 PPG, because I like being #1. I’m basing that on PPG average of FBS only games.


(Alfred Matthews) #10

it was year 1 for herman at Texas without bringing in most of his guys. the offense will be fine.


#11

Let’s please not turn this into a CMA v. Herman thread. We have plenty of those already. Please just venture a guess and accompanying explanation.


(PortlandCoog) #12

Ummm… ok. Not really too worried about Texas in any capacity. Meaning I don’t care about them at all. My point is that I think the switch in our offense was a smart move.


(Ian Blake) #13

It will be interesting to see. The Briles believer in me says that the lack of a decent oline will not be an issue as it was not during his dad’s days here and at Baylor. The Major disbeliever in me believes that he will get in Briles way and screw the whole thing up.


(PortlandCoog) #14

Back on topic. I think we average high 30s, with a chance to be really really good.


(Marcus) #15

I’ll go with 38 PPG. I like the logic, but I also think that we’ll put a lot of teams away and rely on the D to hold the lead. Even the 2015 team, with Greg Ward at QB and that ball-hawking defense that flipped the field often, only scored 40 PPG. If we surpass that, we’re talking about another magical season.


(Nick K) #16

41 ppg because no one guesse odd numbers…


#17

Lol! My calculations based on per game guesses came out to 41.6, so I rounded up to 42.


#18

The skeptic in me believes we still need more speed on offense, that there will be growing pains as we adjust to the new playbook, our O Line has to prove it can do its job, and D’Onofrio won’t be as aggressive calling defenses as many of us would like. However, the optimist in me believes Briles’s play calling, the continued improvement of D’Eriq King at QB, more turnovers generated by the defense, and a fairly favorable schedule will lend themselves to greatly improved offensive production. When all is said and done, I’ll go with 43 ppg. (Of course, the accuracy of all our predictions may greatly depend on when we call off the dogs against TSU.)


#19

I agree with this. I expect to see us go deep into the depth chart vs Rice and TSU. I don’t think 1’s and 2’s play much of the second half vs Rice and maybe none of it vs TSU. They probably have a certain number of reps the coaches want them to play.

I think we blast Tulsa. I hope they have turned things around this year and are undefeated when we play them. I hope we score 90.

O-line is not deep as of right now. CMA briefly mentioned in the Media day interview that guys need to step up so we have a good 2 deep O-line. If O-line gets banged up and the replacements can’t do the job, our scoring will suffer.

But, at the end of the regular season, we should be 40+, especially with the 90 we will put up on Tulsa!


(WRB) #20

Defense will be stellar. They will still not be as aggressive as I would like to see but teams will have a really tough time sustaining drives against them. Lots of turnover and 3 and outs. This gives the offense lots of opportunties, many on a short field. The 1’s on offense will rarely need to play the whole game. It will be s good year for building game experience with the underclassmen. We’ll still average 44 ppg. D might keep them below 21 ppg.