Realignment speculation

Texas will either go to the B1G or the ACC. Texas is not going to the PAC. Texas has turned down the PAC twice over the years. They do not want to go west and two time zones.

Either one or two things will sway Texas.

1.) The value of being associated with other AAU schools and the money involved with the B1G.
2.) The value and money that ESPN will assure by them being associated with the ACC and ACC Network either as a full member in the conference along with Notre Dame or a similar arrangement as Notre Dame.

Note: It is always all about the money.

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Long term, I doubt they can. Short term, at least until the current playoff contract runs out, they probably can.

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You’re right. Texas will never get into the PAC, that bridge isn’t burned, it’s been blown to bits.

UT feels that the the SEC is beneath them academically. And for the most part, they’re right. The SEC isn’t the Ivy League south by any stretch. Add to that there is no way Arkansas, Missouri or A$M will ever allow that to happen.

The B1G makes sense both academically and athletically. But Nebraska will scream long and loud about letting them in. Also, don’t forget power. Texas will NEVER have the power on the B1G that it does in the big XII or the had in the SWC. You have schools in that conference that are older and have just as good if not better academic reputations. I’m not sure that the B1G wants Texas.

Having lived outside of Texas for most of my life, I don’t have the rust colored glasses (that’s what we call burnt orange in the other 49 states) on when it comes to Texas. I will never understand what ESPN was thinking when they agreed to the Longhorn network. Outside of the Southwest, mostly Texas, nobody cares about the Longhorns. They may think they do, but they do not have a national following. Only ND and BYU have that and that’s because of religion, not geography.

Texas’ best bet is the ACC. While it has had its good years, the ACC is still a basketball conference top to bottom first.

The Big XII is a dead man walking conference. Texas has to decide if it’s better to rule in Hell or serve in Heaven.

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While this is low probability, Big 12 expansion to 12/14/16 cannot be entirely ruled out.

If the Big 12 goes to 12, my bet is that UCF/USF will be the top choices, despite all the noises from Austin about Big 12 expansion being a non-starter without UH. It was all meaningless babble, in hopes that UH would drop its opposition to UTH.

Frankly, I believe that political support for UH to join the Big 12, has probably hurt UH more than it helped. I do not see the non-Texas programs being particular pleased with Politicians in Austin making demands. What’s to keep them demanding that SMU or Rice be added if the Big 12 grew to 14? Yes SMU is a private program, but it still has powerful supporters and alumni. The more Texas programs you add to the Big 12, the more power Texas politicians have to call the shots.

If/when Big 12 goes to 14, UH and Cincy seem to be best candidates. Also having 5 Texas programs in a conference of 14 will be more palatable to the non-Texas programs.

I think going to 16 presents a problem. Despite people seeing Memphis as a possible candidate, it’s not. It’s a program from a small state, in SEC country. Colorado State, may work, or maybe UConn, but both aren’t all that attractive.

Plus I have visited some Big 12 boards and UT/OU fans are generally not too supportive of having their programs being partnered with G5 programs.

So I think the best odds are OU and UT bolt. I think it may be easier for UT to leave behind TT, than it will be for OU to leave behind OSU. Or for KU to drop KSU.

Despite UT having turned down Pac in the past, I think the PAC will jump at the chance to add UT and OU, even if it means accepting TT and OSU. UT and OU will have huge power in the Pac.

Now, if UT moves to B1G, it will (as someone pointed out on this board earlier) still remain powerful, just won’t be as powerful as it is in the Big 12. I think UT fans and administration will be willing to make the trade off. The benefits of being in the Big 10 far exceed any loss of power.

I would say UT heads to either B1G or Pac, the ACC makes least sense, because it places UT on an island (even if TT/UH accompany UT), however a switch to the PAC with the Texoma, or a jump to the B1G with KU (although KU may have KSU to worry about, politically that is) or even on its own make the best sense. The ACC make the least sense.

Regardless, it’s a sure bet that the Big 12 is toast! Baylor, ISU, KSU, TT, OSU all better start worrying about it, and how they can latch on to their respective big brothers and hope that will be sufficient to protect them. WVU lands in the ACC so they will be ok.

The other possibility is that the smaller Big 12 programs agree to let the conference return to its previous way of unequal revenue sharing. Normally one would say this causes instability, but that’s only the case if the programs receiving smaller payouts have alternatives.

You could half the payouts to TT, KSU, OSU and Baylor, they may cry and complain, but that’s about all. At even $18-20 million a year they would be far better off financially than any G5 program.

There’s always a place for TT and OSU as long as UT and OU got their back. UT has a tech problem, as does OU with OSU. Whether those 4 stick together or not, TT and OSU will be taken care of. For example, if Pac decided to expand, it would be stupid of them not to get into Texas regardless if UT is available or not. Outside of UT, I believe Tech (P5 money and facilities already) would be their first choice and UH is clearly the second choice only because TCU is a religious school.

Probably, but if UT heads to the B1G and can’t take TT along, it becomes a beauty contest between TT and UH. I like UHs chances in such a contest.

If it had been UH in the Big 12 instead of TT, I would say UT had a problem that it had to make sure UH was looked after. TT just does not have the political power to force UT to look after it no matter what! TT is more reliant on UT good will and the hope tha UT may want a guaranteed asskisser in any new conference UT heads to! Although Tech has show some independence from UT occasional, in the Big 12.

If we get the medical school going… it increases our chances to get the AAU status… which will definitely help with Big 10 Admission… if thats even an option

Then why would the little 8 take that deal to let the big 2 out early? P5 dead man walking and no adds (including us) would move the needle enough to change that.

Nothing good ever comes from Flugarville

Fred is on the money here big time. I only lived in Houston four years when I went to our great institution and I’ve lived all over the eastern time zone. UT is no Michigan, Ohio State, Florida, or Carolina. Some big sports stores do sell their T-shirts I just don’t see them on a lot of people. I would love to see LHN numbers north of the Mason Dixon.

We are not talking about fans we are talking about name recognition. My guess is every football fan in Michigan and Ohio knows who the Texas Longhorns are.

This sounds like deja vu. If OU and UT leave the Big 12, the other P5 schools will try to demote the Big 12 like they demoted the Big East(football schools) or AAC as it’s called today. If that happens, there will be no need for UH to join the Big 12 because then the B12 will be part of the Group of 6. Lateral moves are no good unless the money is a lot more, but without those 2 schools in the Big 12, ESPN and the other networks will drastically reduce the payout.

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The same can be said that Michigan and Ohio State are no Texas in this state because the stores barely sell big 10 merchandise.

As mentioned a couple of posts above, fans of ut In the north aren’t as important as name recognition and most fans are familiar with the Longhorns.

Texas will NOT go to PAC…they had their opportunity before and screwed PAC over…PAC doesnt make enough money to attract Texas…Texas will go to BIG or ACC, where ESPN will take care of longhorn network…PAC like to bring in Tech, Houston and 2 more Big 12 schools( or possibly 1 more school along with New Mexico) and get in that central time zone to help their viewership, and PAC network…
Only sure thing is OU and Texas are LEAVING…they utterly refuse to extend GOR…

You and I are pretty much reading the tea leaves the same. I think that if the PAC goes to 16 which is what we have been told in the past that they will take UH, TT, and two of K-State, OSU, or New Mexico.

I believe that they would add schools after UT and OU (and possibly KU leave early), try to stay nationally relevant, and possibly keep their P5 status longer with the idea that UT and OU (and the networks) might support them remaining a P5 after leaving for letting them go early. If they decide to keep UT/OU, they get no support and things break apart once they leave.

Basically, it’s a political move where you hope to make some allies for down the road when you need them.

If you’re curious:


























That was a lot of tweets to say something that could’ve been said in about eight words.

Kansas and Oklahoma are keeping their B1G options open.

/counting

Sorry, nine words.

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I think you are right about UT. I have worked and travelled in many places around the country and I find one thing to be a common thread – UT is universally despised. My nephews father-in-law has been the president of the Notre Dame alumni club in Houston and he has said that Notre Dame has had their problems with UT and the whorns have double crossed them on deals in the past. They will never be in any aliance that includes UT. One’s reputation gets around and UT has a reputation for being a bully and being dishonest. Nobody likes that. They made the SWC intolerable for Arkansas which led to its demise. They made the B12 intolerable for Nebraska, Colorado, Mizzou, and TAMU. Any attempt to get into a conference with any of those guys will lead to stiff resistance from them. Neither the B1G, the SEC, nor the ACC need UT. I don’t think the PAC really does either. So, what is in it for them to let in UT and their sleazy ways.

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I think UT will eventually go Independent - because they will have no real choice to do otherwise. Will serve them right!

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