Realignment speculation

Apparently this was a meeting of old friends and donors to the three schools that used to be in the Big 8. My question is why would the BIG sacrifice their ethics and take non AAU Oklahoma instead of AAU member Texas. I’m pretty sure that as unpleasant UT is to be around that Michigan and Ohio State are also.

https://twitter.com/zainmujtaba/status/977724324466446336
https://twitter.com/flugempire/status/977891817139077120

For and expanded footprint add UH, Cincy, USF, and UCF.

For UH to be added, FOX would have to agree or no longer finance the Big 12. Might be a good thing that they are selling most of their assets to ESPN as, hopefully, they won’t bid on the next Big12 contract.

For UCF/USF to be added, ESPN would have to agree or no longer finance the Big 12. ESPN wants to keep FOX off the East Coast as much as possible.

Basically, expansion will only happen if the conference picks one TV provider instead of the current split it has now.

Big ten- UT & Kansas

PAC- UH, Tech, OU OSU

SEC- OU & OSU

PAC- UH & Tech

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Isn’t Kansas one of the worst football programs in the P5? I know they have history in basketball, but doesn’t 1) market and 2) Football drive the ship?

A better strategic move for the B1G would be to grab Oklahoma and Texas and expand their footprint into the south. I understand Kansas is a state school…but its a small market state and is nowhere as much of as a ‘get’ as the state of Texas.

UT must have told them what they didn’t want to hear. Would it surprise anyone if Texas asked for the moon for the BiG even having the opportunity to grace their presence.

Expansion will see the G5 programs added see a lot more financial and exposure benefit than the current members will, unless some kind of unequal revenue sharing is set up even after the buy-in period.

I don’t see how ESPN/Fox will agree to paying potentially 5-10 times more for G5 programs than they are now. I also see the Big 12 having issues with a deal where they benefit significantly less than the programs added.

E.g. suppose in 2025, the Big 12 payout is $55 million a team, and the AAC pay out is $15 - $20 million a year, anyone can see that networks may not be too pleased to suddenly be forced to pay $35+ million a year more for each G5 program. From the Big 12 perspective, the addes programs see their payouts rise substantially, while the current programs may see rise of a few million, certainly no where near $35 million per year. Now, seriously tell me UT (and maybe even OU) will not find such an arrangement objectionable?

It may not be seen as a fair deal, although if it helps cement the future security of the conference, I would say even if the current members see $0 in net gain, expansion would make perfect sense. But then what do I know.

It’s about the $! And the $ amounts involved do not make sense for the networks, and flow (unless some kind of special arrangement is arrived at), more in favor of the G5 programs added. That reality is a huge roadblock standing in the way of the Big 12 expanding with G5 members.

The other thing to keep in sight is risk. If the Big 12, expands with G5 programs on their potential promise, and any reason, they don’t deliver, or can’t live up to their promise, the conference may find itself in serious trouble with its media partners.

In this the Big 12 is unique, B1G and SEC expanded with P5 programs. The Big 12 and Pac added 1 non-P5 program each, which was a risk in itself, but adding 4 G5 programs has never been done before. The unknowns of doing something like this is another huge roadblock. The Big 12 may be willing to take this risk, but will the media partners?

Kansas is the # 1 basketball power in the nation and they bring their conference a hefty sum in NCAA money on an annual basis and they are an AAU member university. Oklahoma is a football power but is academically behind UH on the trail to AAU. The members are extremely proud of the academic standing of the BIG. Flugaur seems to be making a big deal out of 3 old friends getting together at the NCAAs and talking what if.

Actually 3 of the last 4 adds for the PAC were g5s. When they added Arizona and Arizona St those schools played in the Western Athletic Conference that was a step down from the PAC 8, Southewest, Big 8, Big 10, and SEC.These are the 5 conferences with automatic bids to the New Years 4 bowl.

I don’t think you can compare addition of Az and AzSt, they were added in different time, when college sports (particularly football and basketball), were not multi-million $ business. Thing and have changed a lot since that time.

C’mon folks, if UT and OU leave the Big 12, their new TV package will rival that of the AAC.

Another possible realignment consideration is for UT and OU to use their leverage and demand a double share each at say a 16-17% of the new Big 12 TV revenues and leave the remaining members at a single share each at say 8-9%. That way UT and OU get more $$$ than they can get anywhere else and they still get to run the conference. Food for thought.

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I believe that the Big 12 will eventually revert to unequal revenue sharing, if it survives that is. Even so, the programs that receive less, will still be better off than they would be if the Big 12 collapsed.

When the Big 12 was in danger of collapsing, there was move by the smaller programs to offer the bigger ones more revenue if they stayed. Also when Colorado State made its pitch to the Big 12, they said they would accept a lesser payout.

I don’t really care what happens or where we go. Honestly, I just want to be in a real power 5 conference. Pow6r is never going to be a thing. I’m pretty sure UH knows that already, and sees themselves above almost everyone in the AAC. We’re just tagging along for the ride until we get in to a P5.

That being said, it’s a really pivotal time for UH right now. With the money being invested to this school (athletic facilities, med school, infrastructure) topped off with an upwards athletics trajectory, we are in a really good place right now for P5 expansion.

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As long as the keep the LHN poison pill, I think you are correct

doesn’t the LHN contract expire at about the same time the B12 tier 1 contract?

Expansion/realignment will not be driven by the conferences, but by the media providers.

The Big 12 will not go to ABC and say we are adding Houston, now cough up the money. It will be ABC saying to the Big 12, go ahead add Houston and Central Florida, and here is extra money for your contract.

UH can make every investment in academics and athletics, the conferences will only care to add UH if and only if the networks give the go ahead.

Building relationships and partnerships with certain conferences and/or programs will only help if it comes down to a choice between UH and other program/s that bring similar value. At that point UHs fan support, academic and athletic investments will play a huge role in selling UH.

LHN deal with ESPN was $300M/20 years. If there’s a worse media deal signed by network I can’t think of it.

Right, I seem to recall that the LHN contract expires sometime in the early 30s, which exceeds the current TV contract and the GOR currently in place.

Thanks. LHN will affect how the other conferences view UT because they will not allow LHN to compete with their own tier 3 network. That may be why there is talk about OU to SEC or OU to BIG but there are no rumors about UT to anywhere.

Unless UT and ESPN can come to some sort of agreement, be whereby the LHN is either rolled up into the network of the new conference UT heads to, or is simply dissolved. Either case leaves UT tier 3 rights free to be included in a conference network.