Current RPI 21
Lose last 5 = RPI worsens to 57
Win last 5 = RPI improves to 17
Win both home games, lose 3 road games = RPI worsens to 30
Win both home games and one road game, lose other two road games = RPI is 22.
Win both home games and two road games, lose one road game = RPI is 19.
Basically, the only must wins are the two home games.
We have some margin for error on the road. Need to win 1 of 3 to stay in current position.