Tim Montemayor - Expansion

The Tim Montemayor tweets on this page suggest he independently sourced the claim that Fox is wary of expansion.

Andy Staples (Campus Rush, Sport Illustrated & SirisXM College Sports Nation) rather directly knocks down C. Austin Cox’s claim that Fox is in favor of expansion:

@okieproud76 @Manny_Insanity @C_Austin_Cox There really isn't. Fox doesn't want them to expand. It's not complicated.

— Andy Staples (@Andy_Staples) August 3, 2016

Of course we have the August 1 article from John Ourland and Michael Smith of Sports Business Daily:
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2016/08/01/Media/Big-12-TV.aspx

So there’s three …

And Tim say ESPN wants expansion. There is only the one article that says both are against it, all others refer back to that one.

I’d love to be on the opposite side of the table with you in a negotiation. You can’t seem to see what is important to the other side.

There is not a binary choice of expansion or no expansion. There are expansion scenarios that are acceptable to the broadcasters, and there are non-expansion scenarios acceptable to the Big 12. It is almost certain that a deal will be struck and this entire matter stays out of court. The ideal for the TV broadcasters is no expansion and continuation of the contact as-is. The ideal for the Big 12 is expansion for multiple teams and for the TV partners to pony up the contracted amount of $20 million per team (multiple teams is probably four for a total of $80 million). I can virtually guarantee that neither of those ideal situations will come to pass. There will be a compromise.

The TV partners are incented to minimize expansion. Since we know that the TV partner ideal of no expansion and no additional money is not happening, there are a couple of possibilities. Maybe the TV partners throw a few million dollars (they’re no contractually obligated to pay any extra) at the existing Big 12 members not to expand. In order to minimize expansion, maybe the TV partners float an idea of only expanding by two teams (ESPN’s reported position). This expansion may or may be at $20 million per team. ESPN will certainly argue for less than $20 million per team. What we may be seeing here is a good cop / bad cop negotiation. Fox is digging in its heels for no expansion. ESPN floats an expansion offer for less than the contracted rate and offers to help the Big 12 drag Fox along. Ultimately, Fox and ESPN are on the same side here. They want to minimize expansion and minimize the amount of extra money they pay to the Big 12. The fact that ESPN is talking expansion does not mean they’re in enthusiastic support of it. It could be a negotiating position designed to facilitate a compromise and keep this matter out of court.

I’d like to think you can see the position that the Big 12 would take, but if you’d like me to flesh that out, too, I’ll try my best. Ultimately, the Big 12’s starting position will be four expansion teams and an extra $80 million per year. But we can be quite confident that four teams and $80 million per year won’t happen.

I would love to be on the opposite side of you in a debate. I never said it was binary. All I ever said is that all the reports that stated both sides are against expansion all came from the same “source” material.
I haven’t stated a position except calling out the veracity of those articles.

It seems you really believe that ESPN and the Big 12 both want expansion. Can you even envision an ultimate outcome with no expansion? How can that happen if ESPN wants expansion?

[For the record, I think the ultimate resolution will be two teams (BYU and UH) at less than $40 million per year. We may have difficulty in determining how much less than $40 million per year because there is the additional moving part of the Big 12 CCG. The contract may be structured with two expansion teams at $20 million per year so that the contract appears honored, but the broadcasters pay something less than market for the CCG. Since none of us have the ability to determine the market price of the Big 12 CCG, we’ll never know precisely how much – in reality – was paid for expansion and how much for the CCG. Sure the contract(s) will likely specify an amount for each, but like buying a new car with a trade-in, too many moving parts means you never know how much the dealer truly assigned to each component. The trade-in may be overvalued, but the price of the new car increased to make up for it.]

How are ATM fans in general feeling about UH’s promotion?

Specifically are they concerned about the recruiting aspect/attention that may transfer from ATM to UH?

I really don’t know. I went to A&M and am a casual A&M fan. I’m a UH season ticket holder and get into the nuts and bolts of what’s going on at UH. The possibility of expansion and the conflict between the Big 12 and the TV broadcasters is particularly interesting to me.

FWIW, the topic of UH to the Big 12 doesn’t come up when I discuss football with my fellow Aggie grads.

Most UT fans are horrified. TBH I think they are scared of UH’s potential. I would have thought that is BS, but I’ve read it too many times recently. Others think they already own Houston with UH bringing nothing to the table.

The many derogatory comments lead me to believe UH vs. UT could be a legit rivalry. UT fans only speak with this kind of contempt against OU and A&M.

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Yaaa think??? …

AGAIN … the fans DON’T VOTE … they can’t cast a ballot (well maybe on those looney tunes polling websites) … pull the switch … press the button … turn the key …

ONLY THE HORN PRESIDENT VOTES … and he has pretty much negated his 40 acres constituents and supported UH come hell or high water … doing a Jesse James and holding up the Big12 expansion train for their okay votes … OR ELSE its boot hill for the passengers.

From history on this board and the other we have never ever known rival fans who have loved us to death … just the opposite so why should the premier state school be any different.

UT fans online are more voiciferus against UH then the ones I’ve met in person. Many UT folks want Houston in the Big 12: hurts A&M & Baylor, short trip, remember that we were competitive in the SWC.

We have our detractors on the 40 acres, but we have a lot of support as well.

Well no negative comments from A&M is a good sign.

If their admin can go to bat for UH in any manner with the other conferences then it’s a great ally to have in one’s corner.

The UT grads that work for me want UH in the Big 12.

Any idea how much BYU makes off of its ESPN contract?

Well, if they work for you, they would be pretty stupid to state otherwise!

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To be fair, everyone online is more vociferous and talk tougher than they would in real life.

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According to this article, about $800K-1.2M per home game.

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2010/09/Issue-244/College-Football-Preview/ESPN-BYU-Agree-To-Eight-Year-TV-Deal-For-Home-Football-Games.aspx

Here’s Montemayor’s podcast. He’s sure of FOX not wanting the Big12 to expand, but he believes that BYU/Houston will be added. He kicks off the podcast with Big12 talk:

Monty is well-connected with BYU…most of his sources there

Strange he is mentioning BYU then. Could BYU be telling him it will be BYU? Shocking.

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Nice thing in all these rumors is that Houston is mentioned constantly.

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Most of Monty’s observations refer to BYU’s excellent marketing push and he gives a lot of accolades to Holmoe.