UCF Opens -2

Vegas Insider. The line has moved to -3.

Oddsshark.com had it opening at -3.5 (UCF) and now at -3 with one book at -2.5. It if comes out that Anderson will be fully back, I would expect a little movement just from that news.

https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/odds

UCF is a well coached team like BYU

At least the UCF players are 23 to 27 yrs old on average so we have a chance

Must get better in the secondary. Their QB is accurately.

UCF fans would argue otherwise

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Lol UCF is well coached like BYU? Well coached on offense? Yes. Well coached on defense? :sob:

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Really wht qb?

Wow that line seems pretty slim. I thought we would be at least 7 pt. dogs.

Good thing I’m not a betting man. You can never bet for the Coogs, and equally, never bet against them. I’ve seen too many guys get burned.

I thought it would be six or seven, too. UCF is a hard team to figure. Obviously they can score points in bushels, but their defense has looked sorry at times. Seems like Coogs will need at least 38 to have a chance to win. Let’s hope for 48.

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As with any game this year, it’s really hard to make predictions based on anything. UCF will be playing their 6th game while we’ll be playing our 4th. Just going off averages and comparing some of their stats to ours, I would venture to say the following categories will be key:

  • 3rd and 4th down offense and defense. Both teams are extremely aggressive offensively. UH is converting 47.62% of 3rd downs (20-42) and 66.67 of 4th downs (4-6). UCF is converting 50% of 3rd downs (40-80) and 53.33% of 4th downs (8-15). Getting stops on 3rd down is always good, but stops on 4th down can be crushing for the offense.

  • Efficiency on offense. UH is averaging 9.4 yards per pass attempt and UCF is at 9.6. The difference is, UCF is attempting 45.6 passes per game to our 34.3. On 11 more pass attempts per game, UCF is way more efficient in the passing game than we are right now. Getting our running game going and limiting UCF’s time of possession can help. UCF is giving up 195.6 yards a game on the ground so far and we’re only giving up 104.7. We need to have some long, sustained scoring drives to wear down UCF’s defense and keep their offense off the field. As good as Porter has been, I’m hoping we have Mulbah back this week. He’s a bruiser and can help wear down UCF’s defensive front.

  • Special teams. This one may be more important than everything else. Marcus Jones and Marquez Stevenson on special teams can change a game in an instant. UCF is averaging 13 yards on kickoff returns and 5 yards on punt returns. We’re averaging 31.8 on kickoffs and 17 on punts. Giving our less efficient offense shorter fields to work with will be huge. Also our kicker is 5-6 on the season while UCF’s is 5-8.

As pretty much everyone has pointed out, our secondary is the biggest question mark, especially going up against a high tempo, pass heavy team like UCF. We can’t afford missed coverages and stupid penalties that keep drives alive for UCF. I think we’ll need to play a relatively clean game to pull this one out. If the 1st quarter goes the way it has in all 3 of our games so far, we may be in too big of a hole to climb out. If we finish the 1st quarter in the lead or at least close, I like our chances of winning this one.

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I have noticed a few times this year that Marcus Jones has helped us start our drives past the 40 or 50 for a short field. It basically lets you start drives in 4 down territory.

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