Despite the recent loss, it is still possible for UH to get to a NY6 Bowl game. Per the CFP’s, here’s how the NY6 teams are selected:
- Selection committee will rank teams 1-25.
- Selection committee will place teams in the playoff semifinals bowls.
- Contract bowls will fill their berths in accordance with their contracts.
- Selection committee will assign teams to remainder of the Cotton, Fiesta and Peach Bowl berths.
Based on point three, the NY6 contract auto-bids are a key factor. For this season the contracts are as follows:
- Peach: semifinalist vs semifinalist
- Fiesta: semifinalist vs semifinalist
- Rose: B1G vs PAC
- Sugar: SEC vs B12
- Orange: ACC vs SEC or BIG
- Cotton: G5 access vs at large
UH’s way to a NY6…
Possibility 1: G5 Access - this spot goes to the highest ranked champion from a “non-contract conference”, meaning a G5. To get this, UH needs help with Navy losing so UH can win the conference.
Rule Reference: “All displaced conference champions and the highest ranked champion from a non-contract conference, as ranked by the committee, will participate in selected other bowl games and will be assigned to those games by the committee.” http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/selection-committee-protocol
Possibility 2: At large spot
To get this, UH just has to have a favorable CFP ranking and can be behind various teams who fill the other NY6 spots. UH does not have to win the conference. Based on current AP rankings (not the same as the CFP rankings), here is what UH needs based on each conference assuming the playoffs are filled with the PAC, BIG, ACC and SEC champs:
- PAC: Can be behind 2 teams, now ahead of UH: Washington
- BIG 12: Can be behind 1 team, now ahead of UH: Baylor
- ACC: Can be behind 2 teams, now ahead of UH: Clemson, Louisville
- SEC/BIG: Can be behind 5 teams, now ahead of UH: Ohio St, Michigan, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Bama, A&M, Tennessee, Ole Miss. Florida could jump UH with big wins.
So the issue is getting past three teams within the SEC or BIG. Realistically, UH needs to beat out four of these: Nebraska, Wisconsin, A&M, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Florida.
As an aside, it’s entirely possible UH could be ranked third among all PAC, B12 and ACC teams yet still have programs from each of those conferences get in a NY6 over UH due to cartel contracts. It’s good to be king. In other words, UH could beat OU and Louisville , be ranked higher than both in the CPF rankings, but still see OU and Louisville get to NY6’s (Sugar and Orange) while UH gets stuck going to a 4th tier bowl. Right now the Rose Bowl would be filled by a team not even in the top 20 over a #13 UH.
Possibility 3: Semifinals spot - Only about a 0.0001% chance this happens, but it’s possible with mass chaos. Consider the following:
- UH wins the American (with Navy loss)
- OU wins the B12.
- Louisville wins the ACC with Clemson loss, UH beats Louisville.
- Colorado wins out, upsetting Washington in CCG, and ends up 11-2.
In this situation, the 4 semifinal spots would be:
- The SEC champ
- The BIG champ
- 2 of: UH, OU, Louisville, Colorado or possibly a #2 from the SEC or BIG.
In theory, UH could get a spot but we know this is almost impossible.
A few side point on the bowls…
The semifinalist games rotate ever year, and in the years that the Peach and Fiesta host them there is a limitation of at-large bids. The pairings should have been had the Rose, Sugar and Orange be split up which would have kept the tie-ins more distributed every year.
For those wanting to know about the American becoming a “P6” - the key is to get a contract with the Peach, Fiesta or Cotton Bowl, not easy.
Looking at some others schedules…
Sat, Oct 15 @ Indiana
Sat, Oct 22 vs Purdue
Sat, Oct 29 @ #8 Wisconsin
Sat, Nov 5 @ #2 Ohio State
Sat, Nov 12 vs Minnesota
Sat, Nov 19 vs Maryland
Fri, Nov 25 @ Iowa
CCG vs Michigan / Ohio St
Sat, Oct 15 vs #2 Ohio State
Sat, Oct 22 @ Iowa
Sat, Oct 29 vs #10 Nebraska
Sat, Nov 5 @ Northwestern
Sat, Nov 12 vs Illinois
Sat, Nov 19 @ Purdue
Sat, Nov 26 vs Minnesota
CCG vs Michigan / Ohio St
Sat, Oct 22 @ #1 Alabama
Sat, Oct 29 vs New Mexico St
Sat, Nov 5 @ Miss St
Sat, Nov 12 vs #12 Ole Miss
Sat, Nov 19 vs UTSA
Thu, Nov 24 vs LSU
CCG vs Florida / Tennessee
Ole Miss (3-2)
Sat, Oct 15 @ #22 Arkansas
Sat, Oct 22 @ LSU
Sat, Oct 29 vs #23 Auburn
Sat, Nov 5 vs Ga Southern
Sat, Nov 12 @ #6 Texas A&M
Sat, Nov 19 @ Vanderbilt
Sat, Nov 26 vs Miss St
Sat, Oct 15 vs #1 Alabama
Sat, Oct 29 @ South Carolina
Sat, Nov 5 vs Tenn Tech
Sat, Nov 12 vs Kentucky
Sat, Nov 19 vs Missouri
Sat, Nov 26 @ Vanderbilt
CCG vs Bama/A&M
Sat, Oct 15 vs Missouri
Sat, Oct 29 vs Georgia*
Sat, Nov 5 @ #22 Arkansas
Sat, Nov 12 vs South Carolina
Sat, Nov 19 vs Presbyterian
Sat, Nov 26 @ #14 Florida State
CCG vs Bama/A&M