BracketMatrix now shows us in 94 of 96 brackets…which is more than 7 schools listed higher up (Coogs are 4th lowest among at-large teams).
Looking at RPIForecast, they go along with your prediction of 5-3 and Expect our RPI to now be 35 if that happens. If that holds, 1 win in the conference tourney may be all we need at that point.
Well…5-3 and one win in the AAC tourney probably still leaves them needing help. What I meant was 6-2 and one win in the tourney more than likely gets them in on their own.
Have you noticed that RPI forecast considers all percentages near 50% as 50/50 in the win loss? What I mean is that if you are a 53% favorite in 4 games, they score that as forecasting 2 wins and 2 losses. I use to think they were counting anything over 50% a win and anything under it a loss.
Yes, I had been wondering why the Coogs had been at 22-8 in their predictions because of that.
I did notice that their percentages for 23-7 and 22-8 for us are almost equal now. Good chance that, if we beat SMU, it tips towards 23-7.
Vegas has us at 125/1 to win it all.
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I honestly don’t know how anyone is expecting us to lose a game against SMU at this point. They’re down to 7 scholarship players and two of the guys they have lost are their 2 most productive players in Shake Milton (leading scorer and best all around player) and Jarrey Foster (leading rebounder and 2nd leading scorer). Milton may not be out the rest of the season, but he’s out indefinitely which means, if he does come back, he’s going to be rusty. I would have us favored over SMU in both of our games against them this year even if they weren’t missing Milton. With him gone, I don’t see much chance of us losing either game to them.
I may be a bit optimistic here, but I think the only game I would even consider putting in the L column prior to the tourney is Cincy. But honestly, after what we showed against them on the road, I think we’ll beat them at home. I think our chances of finishing 7-1 or 8-0 the rest of the way are way better than finishing 5-3.
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RPIforecast has the following liklihood:
8-0 2.18%
7-1 13.47%
6-2 29.66%
5-3 31.5%
4-4 17.14%
3-5 5.33%
2-6 0.67%
1-7 0.04%
0-8 Not listed
Granted, this doesn’t take into account SMU’s injury issue.
Yeah, I fully admit I’m probably being optimistc and RPI has a more dower attitude toward my Coogs than I do 100% of the time, but this just makes very little sense. I can’t even fathom a situation where we lose more than 2 of our remaining games. If we lose 2, it will be Cincy at home and Temple on the road. We are not losing a game to a completely depleted SMU team. Period.
We’re currently dogs at home against Cincy and at SMU. We’re closely favored at home against Cincy and at Temple. They assume we’ll lose the first two and split the latter two…and end with an RPI of 35, before the conference tourney.
Nothing wrong with being optimistic as long as you don’t get mad at the team/players/coaches for not meeting your optimistic expectations.
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Sorry to disappoint you Shaggy, but if we lose either of the SMU games (and we’ll have to lose one of them to finish 5-3), I’m going to be mad at somebody. There will be no excuse for it.
Not disappointed. I just feel sorry for you. Future wins won’t be as enjoyable to you as most of us because you expect them all and you will take losses harder too.
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Haha! Pretty hilarious to me that you think you know me so well.
If Shake doesn’t play I think we likely sweep SMU, but our road game with them is 22 days away and I don’t think there’s any real indication that he’s done for the year. If he’s back by then that will still be a tough game.
SMU has had our number recent years especially under CKS. We owe them big time.
Cincinnati up 13-33 against UCF. And I bet Cronin is still whining about fouls.
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59-28 Cincy with 9 left now.
Sure would be nice to take down Cronin and his Cronies at H&PE next Thursday night. It’s a shame that it’s a 6pm tip. The crowd might be late arriving.
The past two years, they have had better players. After last year, we all know how they got them…thus Larry Brown stayed true to form and fled the city !