A New Disturbance in the Force

Always do like some of the Roman Emperor’s have government brothels. :laughing:

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Still waiting for that collapse.

The S&P 500 is set to gain over 20% this year after rising 24% in 2023. Back-to-back gains of over 20% would be the best performance for the benchmark index since 1997 and 1998, according to data from FactSet.

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The next crisis will be a housing crisis

Not in the same vein as 08, but an actual affordability crisis

I’m sure you’ll have a rosier view of the economy now.

Howard Marks — Always worth a read, IMO

I think there’s definitely an AI Bubble, and I think too many companies are using or throwing around the term AI for unsustainable investments

That being said, the magnificent seven are too big to fail, and their underlying operations do not lend to a real bubble

I like how Marks cites “newness” as part of Bubble formation — there’s no history so forecasting is all speculation.

As he writes, back in the late 90s the Internet was new. In '06-'08 it was new Mortgage-backed securities. And this time it’s AI.

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Mortgaged back securities wasn’t the cause of the 08 crash, but it was definitely a tool that was abused by banks and predatory lending

People tend to sight low interest rates and complicated derivatives as the cause of the 08 crash, but the real culprit was predatory lending and lowering of homeownership requirements

The mortgage back security itself is a great product by itself

Seems like all the doom and gloom posters are gone. I wonder what changed?

Although 4 years later, some of their predictions could come true.

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Business tip of all time but you have to keep it on the down low……Gaza real estate. Yeah I know it doesn’t look like much right now but in a couple of years it will be jihadist riviera.

It is like buying Baltic Avenue and in a couple of years it is Park Place with a Hotel.

You can thank me later.

So buy the dip?

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:face_with_symbols_over_mouth: :face_with_symbols_over_mouth: :face_with_symbols_over_mouth:

I soon will have available the Gaza Plaza limited partnership.

Right off the Beach. Will have a Muslim strip club.

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I am starting small with a Holiday Inn Express with a Houka Bar.

I mean it will be nice, it will have a pool and a complimentary continental breakfast.

You might be on to something…

● Where some might read a post in this thread as doom and gloom I might read it as a useful investing or risk-management idea.

For example, @coachv’s original “Disturbance” warning post from 21-Mar-22 has come true IMO…

China FXI ETF price is about +2% since then while SPY ETF price is about +36%. Thank you, Chris.

● One way I manage risk is to look at market PEs. The chart below shows the estimated S&P 500 EoY’24 PE was about 37.5 — that’s very high (rich, expensive). The chart also shows that when the SP5 PE gets above 20, real annualized returns are a puny 1.24% (top center box in yellow). And the chart box top right shows the worst (“Min”, in red) 5-Year returns come after the SP5 PEs get high.

Some could say this is more doom & gloom. I say use this info to “keep your (investing) head on a swivel”.

● TLDR — I believe you can make money & hold on to it with good investing and time-tested risk-management guides. And that’s why I read & post in this thread.

—Go Coogs, Steve