Had lunch with a client who owns an international manufacturing company. He said 2025 was supposed to be a good year but it didn’t turn out that way.
He said the uncertainty in tariffs. He also said they received back 60% of their tariffs paid during his first term. He feels the tariffs are illegal and the will get much of it back
Interesting. How did they arrive at that figure of 60% ? Did they only pass along
40% of the tariff to consumers ? How do the consumers get reimbursed for their
part ? I get the part about the uncertainty introduced into your supply chains, just not clear about the reimbursement thing.
Didn’t ask.
Consumers don’t get reimbursed. There is no method for that. Won’t even get the tariff rebates I imagine, as they will go to the businesses.
The only real way they can give back to the consumer is to lower the prices back to previous levels, but that would involve buying more stuff. I would expect some gimmicky “tariff rebate” sales, but nothing will really alleviate this tax on consumers.
I heard we’re getting a dividend and won’t have to pay income tax anymore. So much winning
I love all the winning; it’s like living int the highly successful Eron model. Tariffs will wipe away the deficit, no more income tax, and dividend checks and lower prices! And as a bonus I get to have my grandkids ride in the tail gunner seat with no seatbelt in my retro station wagon with wood paneling! Living in a golden age.
Fixed it for you. 
How do you feel about the companies getting a 60% rebate back ?
Don’t care. It’s in the past. In business & finance, I focus on the present and the future.
Oh, still wondering where tariff inflation is. I do know something is there because my company raised the dividend crediting rate to 5.75% and my deferred comp raised to 5.71% so they are anticipating higher rates.
The past, history, can be a sign post for the future.
On inflation, another uptick.
In 2025, total US travel spending is expected to reach $1.35 trillion , marking a 1.1% increase YoY, according to the U.S. Travel Association.
If that’s not inflation adjusted, wouldn’t that be actually be potentially less activity ?
Then there is this from STR
The American market is steady but not surging. AHLA’s 2025 State of the Industry report, using STR and Oxford Economics inputs, shows 2024 occupancy at 63.01 percent and a 2025 projection of 63.38 percent, still shy of 2019’s 65.80 percent. Translation: rates (ADR) and total revenue (RevPAR) are carrying more of the growth than occupancy.
Domestic travel up, international visitors down.
Next year will be better due to World Cup. Weaker dollar should help.
The US Labor Department announces it has cancelled the October PPI inflation report.
So much winning.
This is incredibly suspicious.
Data collection during shutdown
Compared to the last administration?
Shirley, you jest.
Yes, I called you Shirley
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