You may be right. The “experts” aren’t sure and are saying 50k jobs added may be the new norm.
Interesting take are rates. Seeing a drop in the 2 years assumes Fed lowering rates to help employment but higher long term rates which implies economic expansion in the future. This disparity bodes well. Much better than an inverse yield curve
50k jobs a month(only 600k a year) going forward would be a disaster. Literally. It would be lower than every year the last 20 years except the two completely awful years, one of which was covid.
| Year | Jobs Added (Millions) |
|---|---|
| 2009 | -5.06 |
| 2010 | 1.05 |
| 2011 | 2.09 |
| 2012 | 2.15 |
| 2013 | 2.3 |
| 2014 | 3.0 |
| 2015 | 2.71 |
| 2016 | 2.34 |
| 2017 | 2.18 |
| 2018 | 2.63 |
| 2020 | -9.5 |
| 2021 | 6.4 |
| 2022 | 4.5 |
| 2023 | 2.7 |
| 2024 | 2.2 |
Adding only 600k annually would be a slow death by a million cuts essentially, as unemployment just rises and rises and rises.
Some good news, at least directionally.
Oh please, most of the decline is coming from government jobs. You can’t extrapolate off 2 months and one was a government shutdown.
Interesting, drilling rigs are down but production isn’t
He’s talking about you saying 50K jobs/month being the new norm, not extrapolating anything.
Not horrible, but at 2.7% that’s still 35% above the Fed target of 2%.
May be 3% inflation becomes the new normal target - just speculating ???
And the report notes the missing data and use of other sources to compensate.
Guess you have to go with the data you do have, and Fed shifting to fight
unemployment at this juncture is probably the right call. At least the lower
interest rates should ease the payments on servicing our 120+% of GDP debt.
Yeah, that’s why I said directionally.
Exactly.
I’m not an Eco expert — I just follow a lot of sources and see what shakes out — In that vein, here’s one take on the recent jobs #
(he’s fiscally conservative so if you can’t handle diverse views, don’t click through)
https://x.com/profstonge/status/2001993417291960468?s=20
And a warning about deficit spending —
https://x.com/profstonge/status/2000543866047308139?s=20
Historically, the Two-Year Treasury rate is a decent leading proxy for the Fed Funds rate.
Right now, they seem to be inline — so Twos are currently not forecasting Fed rate cuts but, importantly IMO, they are also not forecasting Fed rate hikes.
Going to be honest, that feels like a lot of spin to make something bad feel ok. I’m guessing he would have blasted someone doing the same from the other side.
He’s also playing pretty loose with stats in there.
Yeah, looks like spin to me.
If you wish to discuss rates, the 2 year is dropping in expectation of future rate cuts. The 10 year isn’t as they expect economic activity to pick up
I didn’t bring up rates at all. But there is more that impact rates than jobs growth and certainly more than one jobs report.
https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/rising-beef-prices-drive-bbq-chain-into-chapter-11-bankruptcy
“We are headed for what I’m calling…the $10-a-pound reality. By [the] third quarter of '26, families are gonna see $10 a pound [for] ground beef in the grocery store. So we’re in for a bit of a haul here,” Omaha Steaks’ CEO Nate Rempe told Fox News.
Yeah but look at the stock market it’s all good baby. If you’re growing your own food and running out the clock living on your previously attained financial security
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