Inflation tops 4%. More concerning, core is at 3.4%.
It’s fascinating how the market has all but abandoned its concern for supply buffers and has moved on to long-term demand concerns. US crude stocks (SPR, Cushing, company-held) are at their lowest point in probably two decades - down over 50MM bbls in the last couple of months. And some countries have almost fully exhausted their reserves.
If traders are pricing in the demand to replenish these stocks to “normal” levels along with their global demand forecasts, then the global economy is really pulling back hard.
The oil market has moved from fearing shortages to pricing in a very different future
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Its almost like some other entity has influence
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now thru the month end rotation for june, july is historically a good month. new all time highs this month very possible.
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“European EV sales spiked over 30% in early 2026. In the EU, the current EV fleet has cut passenger car oil demand by roughly 140,000 barrels per day.”
I wonder if it’s actually more than that already.
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US economy still in a funk with low levels of jobs creation with latest downward revisions ; however unemployment remains at lower levels, dropping from 4.3 to 4.2. AI the culprit ?
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Beef. It’s what’s not for dinner.
Ahead of Independence Day on July 4, a major holiday for grilling, the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute estimated the cost of a summer barbecue for 10 people will rise by 2.4% from last year to $161, with hamburger beef up 14%.
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Summary
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Wells Fargo estimated a barbecue for 10 people will cost $161, up 2.4%
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Ground beef prices hit a record $8.62 per pound in May, BLS data showed
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Rebuilding herds takes at least two years after ranchers retain female heifers for breeding
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-beef-prices-stay-red-hot-summer-cookouts-2026-07-02/
Per BLS our Labor Force Participation Rate dropped to 61.5%, lowest in 50 years.
This happened because 750,000 left our Labor Force.
Looks like all job data driven by running off the Illegals working in USA.
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Is there any evidence of that in the data?
May want to consider this fact …
An estimated 270,000 Americans retire or claim Social Security retirement benefits for the first time each month. This pace is driven largely by a peak demographic period where approximately 11,200 Americans turn 65 every day. [1]
Need to understand what LPFR is and what the long term trend has been.
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects a decline in the overall Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR), from 62.6% in 2024 to 61.1% by 2034 — a 1.5 percentage point decline over the decade.
- Workers ages 16 to 24 are the largest contributors to the overall decline in the LFPR, driven by both a shrinking population and lower labor force attachment.
- The LFPR remains historically high for prime-age workers (ages 25 to 54), but is trending downward, with small projected declines combined with slower population growth.
- As older workers remain in the labor force longer, an aging population shifts more workers into lower participation age brackets, pulling down the overall LFPR.
The US labor force is quietly shrinking, not because of a weak economy, but because of a demographic squeeze. The population is aging, fewer younger workers are entering the workforce, and relative stability amongst prime-age workers (aged 25-54) can’t fully offset the gap. The result, according to the BLS projections, will be roughly 4.3 million fewer workers by 2034 than would be expected if
The latest projections for the decade stretching from 2024 to 2034 show a steady decline of the overall labor force participation rate (LFPR), from 62.6% in 2024 to 61.1% by 2034, a 1.5 percentage point drop over a decade.
Note this is a key problem for social security as we are at an all time low of workers vs social security recipients.
@RobDob and @TucsonCoog do you think we were massively deporting people from 2007 to 2014 ?
Looks pretty consistently down (excluding pandemic impacts) for the last couple of decades. It’s rarely one thing. In this case, I’m sure immigration is a piece of it but there is a longer term trend at play.
I’m collecting but still working. The wife wont let me stay home
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The BLS report specifically pointed out the departure of foreign workers.
My guess is many will return Legally as they will have sponsors.
Our birth rate dropped by late 1960’s as Baby Boomers delayed having children.
And at present the birth rate is below replacement rate.
Expect changes to Immigration rules.
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Excellent TX Solar News
In 2025, Texas generated 58K gigawatt-hours from utility-scale solar, surpassing California and becoming the national leader — this surge has helped moderate TX wholesale electricity prices during summer peaks. This year, TX solar is on track to exceed coal generation in ERCOT for the first time, producing about 78K gigawatt-hours v. 60K from coal.
This past week provides a clear contrast with other grids. While Texas approached record demand, ERCOT maintained strong reserves with over 10 gigawatts of battery storage deployed and solar contributing significantly, keeping wholesale prices around $40 per megawatt-hour with ample spare capacity. In contrast, the PJM grid serving much of the Mid-Atlantic issued emergency alerts, activated demand response, and saw spot prices spike to nearly $1,900 or even over $2,500 per megawatt-hour amid heat, outages, and transmission issues.
— via Grok
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