A New Disturbance in the Force

Two distinctly different designs, especially newer model office buildings


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Between December 2022 and December 2023 the exports of United States’ Crude Petroleum have increased by $1.02B (10.6%) from $9.66B to $10.7B, while imports increased by $172M (1.26%) from $13.7B to $13.9B .

From the American Petroleum Institute:

The U.S. continues to import and export crude oil because the viscosity of oil (measured by its API gravity) being light or heavy and its sulfur content being low (sweet) or high (sour) largely determine the processes needed to refine it into fuel and other products.


When you absolutely must have a negative article to satisfy management…

Nearly everyone has given up on their recession call, and that makes the outlook ‘dangerously reminiscent’ of 2007, SocGen says


But…but…wait…it happened under whos watch? A red hat guy said it couldn’t happen with out him. What gives? Lol

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Evergrande, part of our original thread topic


China’s real estate market…

Explore drain snake GIFs

Everyone, including Powell is so fearful that cutting one month too late will sink the economy in recession.

It won’t. This economy is so imbalanced, a recession will happen no matter what the Fed does. And when it hits, president Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and all the Progressive cheerleaders will be screaming “I told you so.”

Two-Year Treasuries Rate Leads Fed Funds Rate

Historically, the Two-Year Treasury rate is a decent leading proxy for the Fed Funds rate

2024-04-01 — Today, Twos seem to be holding steady and a bit below Fed Funds. No downward-leading trend visible like in previous Fed Fund Rate peaks.

(Source: St. Louis Fed FRED database – free, recommended. Click image to embiggen)

Meme stocks…classic…


A broken clock ?

I mean eventually, one day, a recession will happen again. Does this guy have a good
track record or methodology in these predictions or is he just being more political ?

Ah, if I go to The Mish Talk home page he has an Economics and Politics button at the top.
Click on the later and it tells you a great deal about his bias.

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Mish has been calling for a recession since at least January 2022.

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The fantastic government spending is the only thing forestalling it

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I thought it may have something to do with the increase in job vacancies.

Job openings increase 8,000 to 8.756 million in February

Hiring increased 120,000 to 5.818 million. It was driven by retail trade, with 78,000 hires. There were also notable gains in transportation, warehousing and utilities. The hires rate rose to 3.7% from 3.6% in January.


This clock ain’t broken…

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Are these numbers going to be revised…like others?
Egg pricing increased by how much in three years?

Here is another “angle” to these numbers:
Education and health +88k
Government +71k
Leisure & Hospitality +49k
Construction +39k
…Manufacturing NO INCREASE and Manufacturing is paramount.
Again these numbers are published today. Does that mean they are correct? We will have to wait if they are going to be revised or not.
How many times were numbers revised in the last three years? I believe six to seven times.