The P5 will cease to exist. It will be the P4.
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Iâm not so sure the caliber of football in general would not be better if that happened. Go to P4 and eliminate play of anything other than P4 teams.
OU and Kansas seem to heads pointed toward the BIG, once their GOR is close to expiration in a few years.
When that happens, Texas likely looks and thinks that Big 12 not worth saving and heads off to ACC with a partner.
With BIG turning into a 16 team super conference, i cant believe the PAC 12 will continue to stand by and do nothing. If they expand, i think we will be a part of it, along with Tech and 2 other Big 12 schools. If they dont, then we will be part of a rebuilt Big 12âŠAs you say, SamâŠwho knows for sure?? but SOMETHING is going to happen, and one way or the other, we are going to move up.
I would be very surprised if Notre Dame joined a conference. They have a pretty good deal as NBCâs only school. And it wouldnât shock me if Texas decided to go independent. I could see them striking a deal where they keep the LHN (if theyâre a Top 10-15 program as it looks like theyâre going to be, they shouldnât hurt for subscribers) and agree to play maybe four Big 12 schools much like ND does in the ACC. They could still schedule OU, Notre Dame, Arkansas, and maybe a USC or UCLA along with a Rice, Tulsa, UTEP, etc. (ND schedules 2-3 G5âs per year) and play in what would still be a good basketball league even without Kansas and OU.
Sam, donât you think UT would need to get affiliated with a conference for all other sports, just as ND has done? Their ego couldnât take not competing for other national titles.
If they were to bolt the B12 who would that be? Not the B12! And the reason they would go independent is not to compete in the SEC, travel/time zones with PAC, and no interest with ACC. Scheduling all their other sports could be a nightmare.
Well, if youâre Baylor, TCU, Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, WVU, and hopefully UH and maybe UCF, BYU, and possibly a couple of other G5 programs, do you let Texas in the league for basketball if they agree to play a rotating home and home with four of you? How lucrative would it be for those schools to play UT on a semi-regular basis plus how much more will they strengthen the conference in basketball and help it to maintain P5 status? Obviously I donât know what will happen, but I could see something like that occurring.
Of course itâs possible, but if I was either Baylor, TCU, TT, KS, etc., I wouldnât cut them any slack for bolting, What $$ proceeds did they receive from the LHN?
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There will be a big lawsuit by Baylor when Texas decides to leave.
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I have heard this mentioned other places too, but fail to see what basis Baylor would have to make its case. Once the GoR expires no contracts are being broken. Maybe someone with a legal background can elaborate. I think it more likely the legislature may step in a force Texas to ensure TT finds a suitable landing spot.
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Why would the legislature do that this time? No one wants TT. What value do they offer? Lubbock definitely doesnât have that many eyeballs. What conference is going to take UT with the LHN? I think you can exclude the SEC, B1G and ACC unless UT is going to give that $15M a year to the conference and thatâs not going to happen.
Why would UT go to the P12 when the B12 makes more money? I think UT is going to stay in the B12 where they are comfortable but OU is a different story. OU would fit perfectly in the SEC and add a lot of value to the B1G.
Itâs a winless argument, folks. Unless thereâs a massive restructuring around the NCAA as a whole (the 64-school coalition, for instance), U of H will continue to be left out of any P5 expansion. They simply just do not draw well enough (or better yet, well consistently enough) across the major sports to be considered a viable option.
Itâs not necessarily their fault, either.
College athletics generally struggle in major markets â even UCLA and USC are not as relevant in their markets as you might think. But they still have a brand, and this is something U of H is still lacking in.
Besides, it would probably be bad business for conferences to want to include Houston anyway. Even in the Pac12 and ACC â where itâs assumed adding a Texas flavor would be good for the conference as a whole, especially since those schools donât really compete with Texas for recruits anyway â it would be a tough sell to its members. While they may not compete for Texas recruits, current members would still be sacrificing their own success by inviting a school like Houston. If the conference affiliation helps U of H with recruiting (as it should), that automatically means schools like USC, UCLA, Florida State or North Carolina stand a lesser chance of winning and staying successful in their current leagues.
Mike Gundy probably said it best: âIf you add another school, especially in a recruiting hotbed like Houston, the roaring faucet that is Texas recruiting slows to a drip for (other schools). Why would we support that?â True, while the Pac12 and ACC donât necessarily compete with Texas for recruits, adding a school like a Houston is still enabling, empowering or, better yet, waking a sleeping giant that could become a threat to the other institutions. While competition is good, itâs not always welcome. If UCLA, USC, Florida State or North Carolina needed us to legitimize their own conferences, that would be one thing, but they donât. They (and the rest) are all doing fine on their own. Why would they want to give up a share of that pie?
UT isnât going to stick to a watered down Big 12 if OU leaves. The Big 12 TV package will take a huge hit if OU and/or KU depart. Also with SEC and B10 media deals growing it is possible that UT will make more by rolling up the LHN into the B10N.
If OU leaves, UT leaves. I just donât see UT sticking to a conference that is just another incarnation of the SWC with a little more.
Maybe I am shooting too low, but I wouldnât mind being in a re-built Big 12. Assuming only UT, OU, and Kansas left.
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
Houston
Oklahoma St
Kansas St
Iowa St
West Virginia
Cincinnati
UCF
USF
Temple/Memphis
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Bob Bullock had Techâs back during the last round of expansion. Tech doesnât have that kind of clout anymore and has fallen behind UH in number of bodies in the Texas legislature. I think the state will try to help Tech, but theyâll also try to help UH. Iâve always thought it would be better for Tech if they team up with UH leadership in case UT decides to let them twist in the wind, but theyâve shown no real interest to do that.
Baylor really has no leg to stand on once the GOR expires. Their best hope is that UT/OU decide to stay or that a reconstituted Big12 survives. If the conference fails, they may float down to the bottom unless their big donors can get them in somewhere.
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Houstonâs brand is fine. Itâs our affiliations that are weak. And USC and UCLA are very relevant in their markets.
A better argument would just be that UH doesnât win enough.
The B1G commissioner is probably the best out of all the P5 commissioners. He has the B1G distributing $51M per school. Itâs ashamed an awful Rutgers football team is getting that much.
If I was the B1G commissioner, I would try to get OU and UT. The networks would probably take about $25M from each B12 school and transfers it to the B1G. The B1G schools would probably make about $75M each with OU and UT.
And where would that leave UH? Hopefully in the PAC12/B12 merger.
Remember itâs all about money.
Had to read this several times.
Utah is doing well for itself in the PAC12 (probably the second best or best G5 team ever)
Is that what you mean?
One big problem with this. There are no traditional bluebloods to anchor the conference. Without them in your conference, the network, are not going to give you much money. Ask Aresco or anyone from the former Big East football league how much money they lost when bluebloods left.
No team will get a chance to establish blueblood characteristics if it is not in a P5.
B12 would be dropped from P5 status.
Gundyâs a jackass. It never slowed to a drip all the years we were in the SWCâŠit sure didnt stop the SWC inviting us, despite Rice and their fear and implacable hatred. And it sure ISNT bad business to have us in a P5 league. The PAC is more and more isolated and desperate as the years go by. When BIG expands, they are going to do something, and that something will almost certainly include usâŠYou think its a coincidence PAC 12 is only P5 conference that has a lot of members who WANT to play us?? It isnt. Anyone who thinks differently needs to have a chat with our ADâŠ
When the SWC added Houston it was a different time altogether. I wish we had some insight into why the SWC added us and more importantly UT supported it.
I think you are right about Pac scheduling UH. As I said before they will get a wealth of data which will be very useful when they use it to justify adding UH. The fact that UH will be an island means nothing. By 2025 UH will most likely be in the PAC. B12 and ACC remain long shots, B10 and SEC are out.