This is why CDC says this could last 18 months and will happen in waves. You’re basically controlling hieght of the peaks and amplitude of curves of the cases so that the hospital systems dont get overloaded and you minimize the death rate. Worst case scenario is that majority of the population gets it and we go through several waves of severe cases and a lot of people die. Best case scenario is that we flatten the curve(s) and we quickly develop a treatment and/or vaccine.
1 Like
So you are saying we will be in social isolation until the fall? I don’t see that happening with people sitting at home for that long. Also China does not have a vaccine and they are letting people back out.
Does that mean we go back into isolation on the next wave? or does the CDC expect each wave will get smaller and only the first will be bad?
I think this will be handled in waves and this won’t be the last.
1 Like
Yes we handle this in waves and socially isolated each time the caseload accelerates until a vaccine or treatment is developed. That’s the logic anyway. Hopefully when China lifts their quarantine they prove this theory incorrect but it’s not like the disease has disappeared from there…
That was what I am expecting, but what I very much do not want to go through. It will also destroy many small businesses with regular quarantines, and massive unemployment rates. We will turn into Europe.
Yeah I’ve been following the virus for a while and the data coming out of china and elsewhere in the world has been telling us what to expect. I’ve been hoping to be wrong and that there are underlying reasons that the scenarios play out differently, but the logic keeps validating itself everywhere in the world and is now validating itself in NYC.I’m hoping that there are things we learn soon that change the trajectory of what to expect. We haven’t seen anything yet so we have to be prepared for the worst.
And NY state is probably the best prepared of all states. That’s what’s scary! Florida (because of the large number of elderly) should have been on the forefront of preparation. They are not prepared at all!
The statistical oddity is Texas. Why there are so few cases given the population size. It is still early though.
NY is actually set up to be hit harder than most because of the population density there and the reliance of public transportation. I dont think it will get as bad here in Houston because we’re pretty spread out as a population despite the number of people that live here.
What worries me is how socially self centered people are…particularly in the US. If we all personally took adequate measures to contain the spread of the disease , we wouldn’t need to take such drastic measures to socially distance people and protect the most vulnerable in society.
1 Like
Which is easier to revive, a small business or a person?
2 Likes
Because we arent testing adequately here. I have friends who work in the medical center and it is definitely here as they are seeing the symptoms, but we dont test. I also had a friend who went to the ER with pneumonia this week. No test.
We are flying blind…
2 Likes
Too early, too little testing. With each passing day the national case count is rising. It’s up to more than from 22,000 from just under 14,000 on the 19th!
Yes the thing about exponential growth is that it doesnt look too alarming at first…even if the case load doubles every 3 days, the jump from 4 cases to 8 doesnt seem like a big deal. But you quickly get to 8,000 cases and then that doubles to 16,000 in less than a week. All of a sudden the raw numbers get scary and only then do people start to take things seriously. By then you’ve hit widespread community spread and nothing short of full shutdowns is able to flip the trajectory of case growth
2 Likes
Giving up ion testing? Not sure what to make of this
Cougardue in 6 weeks of businesses being shuttered how many of their employees do you think they hire back initially? Probably just a fraction because they need to see what new normal is. That creates a very serious negative loop that quite possibly could lead to a depression.
Before everybody sanctimoniously jumps in about lives over dollars, we are talking about an entire economy. If another country threatened a fraction of our economy we would go to war and put hundreds of thousands of people at risk.
The economy is a pretty important thing. It has to be kept in place.
If there is a second wave, at least everyone stocked up on TP and hopefully they don’t have room for another 3 year supply. Unfortunately, they probably used up all the disinfectant wipes on things that don’t need them.
Basically it’s saying Fukkit!
Don’t worry coug51, deaths from - malnutrition, crime increase , compromised immune systems from poorer living conditions for unemployed won’t count against the Covid 19 stats. They will just mix in with all the others causes of death that no one is concerned about.
3 Likes
Agreed. The wide spread our cities of Texas offer natural social distancing. That will definitely retard the rate of spread in Texas. But won’t stop it if people still gather in large numbers in closed places like clubs, bars etc.
1 Like