I have about decided that the Big12-4+2 will not expand at all. I think all their members are walking a tightrope with different hopes and fears.
Uta - kingpin of the conference, seems perfectly willing to change nothing for the moment - intent on maintaining their beloved LHN. They don’t want to expand because that would make it harder for themselves or anyone else to leave the conference without triggering those GOR’s. They intend to leave eventually, but they don’t want to be the first to go because they don’t want to be blamed for destroying yet another conference. But, as those GOR’s and their TV contract get closer to expiration, those chains become less and less binding.
OU - second-string kingpin of the conference, has made three demands: expand, hold a conference championship game, and create a conference TV network. They are now getting a conference championship game without expansion, but it looks like there will be no conference TV network. They cannot be very happy and may have decided to leave ASAP, but they will need the cooperation of two other members and probably two - maybe even three - other conferences in order to avoid those pesky GOR’s. Arranging all that will take time and may be impossible!
All the rest - they could band together and vote to expand and hold a conference championship game, but now they can do the latter without doing the former, and voting to expand would anger uta, which they are all afraid to do! So they sit quietly, staring into the abyss, hoping to hold things together as long as possible because they all know they probably have no other place to go.
That conference seems to be a dead man walking!
Of course, I could be wrong, but I doubt it.