Yeah USC would be the main target. If they jump then a few others will as well. Trojans are waiting to see where the new PAC TV deal lands. If they can get a solid number with a plan to get close to commensurate with B1G and SEC money then they’ll stay pat. If not, I highly doubt they’ll sit idly by while getting nearly half a billion less money over the span of a decade or so if they could help it. That would be untenable for them.
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It wouldn’t untenable for USC.
As I posted before, they are one of the only programs whose entire athletic department is fully endowed. They are one of the few that truly doesn’t need the money, and can get by with less.
Might then take it? Maybe, but I doubt it. It would mean leaving their West Coast rivals and links behind for the most part.
Do they HAVE to take it? No.
Given that West Coast to TX conferences already have failed due to the travel expense, I can’t imagine them agreeing to take on the expense of flying non-revenue sports teams all the way from the West Coast to the East Coast for conference play. A West Coast to East Coast conference would be even worse from that perspective than the WAC was.
Disney (ESPN) has been taking it on the chin regarding revenue growth. They may not bid up new contracts as much as anticipated. Too soon to tell, but we’ll know in a couple of years.
That may figure in how conferences looking to add members react. The assumption that money just keeps growing at a crazy rate isn’t realistic just now.
USC is not traveling to Cham-bana, Wisc, and New Jersey to play football…period.
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I would not be surprised if we get a nod out reference. UH is positioning itself heavily for the AAU. We are going all in on medical research
With Iowa State out and Oregon possibly next…
I agree that Oregon may be the next out.
But some other schools like Cincy might be on the list ahead of us.
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Definitely.
If they do decline and the money gap is significant then they would be the first institution to do so since the realignment wars over tv money began. If the disparity is greater than $20M then they’re gone. Nearly a quarter of a billion dollars in revenue disparity over 10 years at minimum? No school’s regent, trustee, governor or whatever would ever willingly allow that. Endowed or not.
The PAC-12 already has a huge money gap, and isn’t doing anything about it.
Quote: The tally for FY21:
SEC: $54.6 million per school
Big Ten: $46.1 million per school
ACC: $36.6 million per school
Big 12: $35.6 million per school
Pac-12: $19.8 million per school
They don’t seem to be in a hurry to fix that, otherwise, they might have expanded already.
But the B1G won’t offer. As I said, they don’t want to send teams from New Jersey and Maryland all the way to the West Coast to play. The travel expense isn’t worth it. Rutgers to USC for a conference football game?
Please. Don’t make me laugh.
And as I also said, the B1G never expands except within, or immediately adjacent to, its existing geographical footprint. It never skips over states…and would NEVER skip over multiple time zones.
AIN’T happening.
Their targets would be UVa and UNC, knowing what we know about their historical expansion patterns.
Just when you thought it was safe to get back in the water! Some Conference is going to be the B1G lunch. 
ACC.
PRINT IT!!!
You probably right they want to be in the SEC backyard
UVA and Unc don’t bring football power though.
The motivations of the PAC-12 conference and those of USC as an individual institution are not one and the same. USC may very well be concerned about the disparity to such a degree that they would consider a move. And the B1G wouldn’t sneeze at the cache a brand like USC and other marquee PAC schools would bring. If football is the driver for more money and you’re trying to build out the best package for football possible for the most money possible then you’re not snubbing USC and Oregon for UNC and UVA. Past conference m.o. be damned.
Also you’re posting revenue numbers from the covid impacted season where they played less games and thus received a reduced payout. The PACs normal tv revenue is on par with ACC and old B12. The SEC and B1G have only recently started to pull away and greatly widen the gap hence why UT and OU made the jump. It’s not rocket science.
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Maybe USC has gotten the numbers the P 12 will receive. It’s not enough. So there looking for a new home. Makes all the sense for them to do so. If they do is a different story
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Oh trust me. I know good and well why OU and UT jumped. USC is a bit different though.
They aren’t really under any pressure to jump. As I said, their athletic department is completely endowed and paid for. They don’t need the money, and have always been a team that competed against West Coast rivals; ND is their intersectional rivalry.
That’s why that “disparity” that you talk about may not mean as much to them as it would to some. It doesn’t affect their “bottom line.” Their bottom line is covered.
Trust me. They had enough money to both buy their new coach’s old home, and buy him a new one. Money is simply NOT the issue for them that it might be for other programs, even if they stay in the PAC-12 and don’t bolt for the SEC or B1G.
The B1G may like the USC “brand,” but just like with the WAC, NO ONE likes that travel expense for non-revenue sports. It killed the WAC, and this would be EVEN MORE far flung.
They won’t like sending non-revenue sports teams from Rutgers and Maryland all the way to the West Coast and back. And USC would be stupid to want to play the Indianas, Illinoises, Rutgerses, and Purdues of this world over their long established local West Coast rivals.
Don’t put money on it. Bet against it.
I think that any chance of B1G expansion is small, but if it were to happen, the invites would go to UVa, UNC, and ND.
They don’t need a new home though.
Their home is comfortable and paid off, thanks to their fully endowed athletic department.
It’s like the people that have paid for their home, and as such, don’t have any real interest in moving out of it. That’s how USC is with their home in their PAC-12 neighborhood. It’s paid for, and they don’t need the money, so why leave their favorite old neighborhood?
UNC does.
UNC has been to bowl games something like 7 of the last 10 years, and has a higher all-time winning percentage than UH, more all-time bowl games than UH, and more Consensus All-Americans than UH.
UVa isn’t as strong in football, but is a state flagship with a 60K seat stadium and a large following.
And in basketball…WHOA NELLIE!!! You won’t find a bigger brand than UNC, and UVa has Final Fours and a Natty under its belt.
Both schools academically check the block and fit the B1G “profile” of a state flagship and high-research AAU member. Both, if added, would be immediately adjacent to the B1G’s existing geographical footprint, consistent with the B1G’s historical expansion process. Neither will require the outrageous travel expense that USC or any PAC-12 school would.
Furthermore, unlike USC, which doesn’t need the money, I would guess that any ACC school would happily get out of that stupid GOR deal that locks them in for too long at not enough money.
It just makes TOO MUCH SENSE.
Two points:
One, at $20 million per year deficit estimated now and probably growing over the next many years is a loss of potentially $200 million over 10 years, $280 million over the remaining life of the GOR. That will cover a $50 million exit fee or more to leave the ACC.
Two, If enough schools leave, then the conference can vote to just disband leaving no exit fees. That is what BYU tried to do to the MWC when they went indy.
If the Big 10 were to raid the ACC, unless the conference got knocked below 12 teams, I do not think they would immediately try to backfill. Only if they were below that, then I do not think they would be very valuable to pull other P5 teams.