Previous Powers, like LSU/ Alabama/ Clemson, etc. will not do AS WELL in a post NIL environment.
Nick Saban eluded to this and here’s why.
The majority of their fan base is low income T-shirt fans and they do not have the kind of the money to sustain the donation part of the NIL bucket long term
There are not enough corporate opportunities in small population Alabama/South Carolina or an economic downward city like New Orleans. This limits their corporate part of the NIL bucket
For being THE Flagship Powerful school of their state, their Endowment is surprisingly low. Alabama’s Endowment is $1.09 Billion, Clemson’s is $1.07 Billion and LSU’s is $696 Million! The majority of their supporters have NOT stepped on a college campus for reasons other than sporting events and they definitely are not leaving part of their estate to the University. They just don’t have the money to do so. By comparison, many State flagship Universities have endowments multiple times this, It’ s not the “end all- be all” but it is a health indicator of a University and how many are leaving something in their estate to their alma mater.
On the flip side, I fully expect Texas, Florida State, Texas A&M, North Carolina, Ohio State, Michigan, Washington, Florida, Wisconsin, Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina State, Kansas, etc. to either maintain their status or really excel in the new NIL environment. It will take a few years…but we are starting to see the shift.
For the University of Houston, the NIL is a huge blessing IF we do it correctly…We have a growing wealthy alumni base, we are in a rich state that is projected to further help with our Endowment (to push us up the ranks) and we are situated in a city with infinitely more corporate opportunities than a small market SEC or ACC school that was once perceived as a power due to their # of T-shirt fans. That is less important now…You must Pay to Play!
College football is shifting to a more Big time…more Corporate…less small time hierarchy and we can really make the jump with the other growing city schools if we do this correctly.
NIL is about the dispersion of top talent…NOT creating a bigger pool of top talent.
A school like Alabama is going to find it much harder to stack all the 5 star recruits they used to get. They won’t be able to afford it… will now have to share.
Not so fast predicting the demise of the SEC and poorer southern schools, due to NIL competition. They still have tradition, facilities, the fanbase and family legacies going in their favor. It’s premature to start sobbing uncontrollably that the SEC will become a dumpster fire and that Paul Finebaum may lose his job.
UH’s main competition is right here in Texas at wealthy public and private schools. Compete with those big guys and UH will be okay.
Like your scenario and hope it plays out as you see it.
One thing that’s always bugged me is how we seem to kinda lose our BMDs overtime.
Thinking of the Cullens ( though their foundation still makes significant contributions every 8-10 years), the Moores ( divorce did us in ). It seems there should be more BMDs out there considering the size of Houston and all the wealth out there.
If the state endowment thing passes, that may prime the money pump even more.
not demise…just not a dynasty level of dominance anymore.
That team LSU fielded last night got destroyed by Florida State.
It wasn’t a surprise to me…Florida State is in a richer state, with more corporate opportunities, they have wealthier alums/ supporters and an Endowment THREE times that of LSU. All of the indicators of a more sustainable NIL.
NIL is about dispersion of 5 and 4 star talent. Alabama and LSU…and Clemson will be the biggest losers in a post NIL world as that talent now goes elsewhere.
Agreed on the way you are thinking. I agree corporates will dictate but overall fan interest and support will decide who the corporates support. Hence, it is critical we keep growing as a rabid fan base to take this advantage.
SMU doesn’t scare me one bit. Sorry but Vanderbilt has wealthy alums too, maybe even more than SMU, and they aren’t on track to be some powerhouse. Even when SMU was buying players they were still never able to be good enough to compete for a national championship.
You really think Prime would leave Boulder for Highland Park?
Money will drive it especially after his boys leave CU for graduation or NFL.
I firmly think XII is the spot to be for the schools that aren’t top 25 in revenue generation but command amazing TV viewership- TCU, OSU, BYU, UTAH, UH, TT at the top of those lists.
I’ve been privy to some interesting data that the general public isn’t well aware of.
My neighbor works for FOX national ( directly reports to Murdoch’s legacy chain of command in NY).
He does production for FOX 26 here locally since the Houston station is owned by corporate.
He was sharing some things with me about how well the Texas schools do in ratings compared to west coast and even east coast where 75% of the US population resides.
UH is in an absolute TARGET RICH media and radio market for the long haul.
Huh? That’s incorrect. In 1982, SMU (aka the Pony Express) ended the season as the only undefeated team in the nation and finished ranked #2. (A higher ranking than UH has ever been able to achieve.)
Yet Miami still hasn’t been able to buy a championship football in over 20 years. SMU is not some sleeping giant like most want to think. And NIL legislation is coming that will take away any advantage it may give SMU.
And Vanderbilt has been trying to win for years don’t kid yourself.
And to add Texas has had great recruiting for how long without NIL? What has Texas achieved with their top 5 classes? Nothing… NIL isn’t going to be some magic pill that changes everything. SMU isn’t going to suddenly go from only 1 bowl win in over 10 years to national championship contenders or even conference championship contenders.