Bracketology 2025

Agree, if they decide we are the #3 we will likely be in Indy. I just have a feeling they will keep us at 4 to justify sending us west. SEC best conference ever blah blah blah, one of the 3 SEC teams (UT/AL/FL) will have more Q1 wins…

I don’t care where they send us, I just want the best matchups. We likely aren’t gonna have a ton of fans in either Indy or San Fran. Now if we make it to San Antonio, boy howdy!

I think pulling for Indy and Midwest is the play…I believe every one of our Final 4 teams came out of Midwest region …

Not to keep going on with it Hill, all a guess anyway. You keep saying " keep us at 4 ", do you inside Committee info that we’re not aware of. :thinking:

Yes, they love the SEC.

Come on Hill, don’t be one of those. We’re wayyy past that.

Edit: ESPN doesn’t get involved :laughing: n no way around the SEC is very good this year. But i see 2 SEC Teams as #1 Seeds come March 16 @ 5:00 .

It seems like the experts are split on UH going to the Midwest or West. I prefer the Midwest, just because less travel and CDT game times.

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Interesting NCAA stats

Though No. 7/10 games feel a bit like No. 8/9 games, they’re not. The 10s have only swept the 7s one time (1999). No. 8 seeds are 75-81 vs. No. 9 seeds all time. Here is every first round head-to-head since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985:

#1 vs #16: 154-2
#2 vs #15 145-11
#3 vs #14 133-23
#4 vs #13 123-33
#5 vs #12 101-55
#6 vs #11 95-61
#7 vs #10 95-60 (1 less game due to covid)
#8 vs #9 75-81

Getting a No. 6 seed is generally seen as desirable and advantageous over getting a No. 7 seed, but the stats just don’t support this.

Furthermore, No. 3 seeds have been unusually good against No. 6 seeds going back to 2005, owning a 22-6 record in those second round games. Meanwhile, a No. 7 seed has made it to the Sweet Sixteen 29 times since 1985. Contrast that to a No. 8, which has only gotten there 15 times.

You’re also statistically more likely to make the Sweet 16 as a No. 10 seed than as either an 8 or 9. No. 10s are 19-35 vs. No. 2 seeds, while 8-seeds are 16-59 and 9s are 6-69 vs. top seeds. Breaking down the math further: No. 10 seeds historically have a 15.8% chance of making the Sweet 16, while the combined chances for No. 8s and No. 9s is identical: 15.8%.

So, you really do want to get off that 8-9 line, but it might actually be better to do it as a 7 or 10 seed instead of jumping up to a 6. That is, if your goal is to actually get to the Sweet 16. Crazy, huh?

67.1-to-1 is the statistical odds four No. 1 seeds reach the Final Four.

9,223,372,036,854,775,808: The number of different possible bracket outcomes. Wondering how to pronounce that number? I got you. That would be nine quintillion, two hundred twenty-three quadrillion, three hundred seventy-two trillion, thirty-six billion, eight hundred fifty-four million, seven hundred seventy-five thousand, eight hundred eight.

A top-three seed has won the national title 23 of the past 25 tournaments. The exceptions: 2014 UConn (7) and 2023 UConn (4).

In 12 of the past 13 tournaments, a 7-seed or worse has cracked the Elite Eight.

Which bottom seed should you want to draw? Whoever wins the Big South. It’s 1-37 all time in the NCAA Tournament. The only win? Winthrop back in 2007.

There have only been four 20-point upsets against the spread in the NCAA Tournament since 1985: No. 15 Santa Clara (+20) over No. 2 Arizona in 1993; No. 15 Norfolk State (+21.5) over No. 2 Missouri in 2012; No. 16 UMBC (+20.5) over No. 1 Virginia in 2018; and No. 16 FDU (+23) over No. 1 Purdue.

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It doesn’t matter. We are going to draw a team or 2 in our region that isn’t an ideal matchup based on metrics.

Texas ATM was a horrible R32 draw for us, but we did overcome it; albeit with a walk on hitting a crucial FT late.

If we’re a 1, then play like a 1 and win in a variety of ways.

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I hope we get to end it again for Aggie and beat Tech twice more and kill their season. I almost wish Texas would get in and flail on them in the 1st game.

That is true Johnny, but it’s still nice to miss a game or two from teams that are capable of putting a scare into you.

I totally get that but it would be so sweet to beat tech again and get a little revenge to go along with it so as to eliminate any doubt of dominance.

Just my opinion :slightly_smiling_face:

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:joy: just because they know us does not mean they can win. It has been proven time and time again. You still have to play defense against a team that seems like they have 6 people. Not easy and in fact they shudder to play us bcoz it takes so much to play against us that you are exhausted by the time you get done.

never said they’d win but it is a lost advantage …i just want every advantage possible

look a the kansas post game comments, the players were in detail talking about our XandOs how to beat the traps/monsters… adjustments theyll make if we played again on a technical level … that is a team familiar with us… can expect a dog fight no matter who wins if we meet again

i prefer them like byu, when we first met them this year under their new coach, pregame was talking “we wont adjust to them, we’ll make them adjust to us” …pregame talking about spacing and scoring and not tougness and rebounding … i knew pregame we were going to kill them…
byu is drastically better than the 41pt beating we gave them… but we had “shock value”…

in the AAC memphis was always a 8/9 seed… id have drastically preferred to play a 4/5 seed who we’ve never played, than memphis

not saying they beat us… but talking ideal bracket, best final 4 path

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Yeah especially a Tech team, Aggies less so but still.

Coaches have film. Probably won’t happen again.

The Athletics bracket this morning. Sign me up for this one.

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This would be a great bracket. Maryland scares me a little, partly because Queen has become a dominant force inside. And Florida is very good although if we make it that far any team at that point will be a tough draw. Overall though I like it!

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That’s about as ideal as it could be

From one of the better Bracket folks

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