Interesting NCAA stats
Though No. 7/10 games feel a bit like No. 8/9 games, they’re not. The 10s have only swept the 7s one time (1999). No. 8 seeds are 75-81 vs. No. 9 seeds all time. Here is every first round head-to-head since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985:
#1 vs #16: 154-2
#2 vs #15 145-11
#3 vs #14 133-23
#4 vs #13 123-33
#5 vs #12 101-55
#6 vs #11 95-61
#7 vs #10 95-60 (1 less game due to covid)
#8 vs #9 75-81
Getting a No. 6 seed is generally seen as desirable and advantageous over getting a No. 7 seed, but the stats just don’t support this.
Furthermore, No. 3 seeds have been unusually good against No. 6 seeds going back to 2005, owning a 22-6 record in those second round games. Meanwhile, a No. 7 seed has made it to the Sweet Sixteen 29 times since 1985. Contrast that to a No. 8, which has only gotten there 15 times.
You’re also statistically more likely to make the Sweet 16 as a No. 10 seed than as either an 8 or 9. No. 10s are 19-35 vs. No. 2 seeds, while 8-seeds are 16-59 and 9s are 6-69 vs. top seeds. Breaking down the math further: No. 10 seeds historically have a 15.8% chance of making the Sweet 16, while the combined chances for No. 8s and No. 9s is identical: 15.8%.
So, you really do want to get off that 8-9 line, but it might actually be better to do it as a 7 or 10 seed instead of jumping up to a 6. That is, if your goal is to actually get to the Sweet 16. Crazy, huh?
67.1-to-1 is the statistical odds four No. 1 seeds reach the Final Four.
9,223,372,036,854,775,808: The number of different possible bracket outcomes. Wondering how to pronounce that number? I got you. That would be nine quintillion, two hundred twenty-three quadrillion, three hundred seventy-two trillion, thirty-six billion, eight hundred fifty-four million, seven hundred seventy-five thousand, eight hundred eight.
A top-three seed has won the national title 23 of the past 25 tournaments. The exceptions: 2014 UConn (7) and 2023 UConn (4).
In 12 of the past 13 tournaments, a 7-seed or worse has cracked the Elite Eight.
Which bottom seed should you want to draw? Whoever wins the Big South. It’s 1-37 all time in the NCAA Tournament. The only win? Winthrop back in 2007.
There have only been four 20-point upsets against the spread in the NCAA Tournament since 1985: No. 15 Santa Clara (+20) over No. 2 Arizona in 1993; No. 15 Norfolk State (+21.5) over No. 2 Missouri in 2012; No. 16 UMBC (+20.5) over No. 1 Virginia in 2018; and No. 16 FDU (+23) over No. 1 Purdue.