I have one issue with the article statement below. If the G5s are a CFP auto-qualifer, we don’t need to call and invite BYU.
JOIN THE AMERICAN
This may be the most likely endgame - the CFP expands and the top G5 team gets a bid, then the American comes calling to expand and invites BYU, Boise and Air Force. It creates a western division of those 3, SMU, Tulsa, Houston and Memphis. The East is made up of Navy, ECU, USF, UCF, Temple, Tulane and Cinci. It’s the same league we were invited to and said no to in 2011, but have kept close with. This league has good travel destinations and 9/10 years is going to be the G5 bid to the playoff - and after a decade of that it would be a de facto P6, which it already proclaims to be.
For the umpteenth time, Navy’s not going to the East. They specifically requested to be in the West to play in Texas every year. Them’s some fertile recruiting grounds, and it would preserve the Air Force rivalry.
The divisions almost certainly would be:
West
Boise State
BYU
Houston
Navy
SMU
Tulsa
??? (Here, Air Force)
SDSU would be a logistical nightmare. Assuming BYU and Boise are Football-only, since BYU would probably stay in the WCC and we don’t really want Boise’s other sports, the closest Basketball member would be SMU.
The real move is adding someone in the East for all sports, but I don’t know who that would be. Army’s probably not coming, so who else even is there? Do we just invite VCU and let the conference exist with four Football-Only members and two non-Football members? That’s starting to sound a lot like another conference I heard stories of once.
BSU isn’t per se unwilling. They weren’t going to get a sweetheart deal when they were going to join the New Big East, but as members left and the potential future tv deal looked smaller and smaller a sweetheart deal to stay with the MWC was a better option for them.
My guess is that if the playoff does expand and guarantee a G5 spot that BYU and BSU both join and ESPN gives the conference a reasonable raise.
Much rather see UNLV than Air Force for several reasons - better for our defender’s knees, good roadie destination for the gambling element,and for the Wayne Newton fans.
If the G5 gets one AQ, there’s no need for the AAC to be expanded. There’s no combination of teams from the other G5 conferences that could even compete with our conference. BYU and Boise are probably the top two G5 programs outside of the AAC, even if BYU were to head to the Mountain West (they won’t), that still wouldn’t compare to UH, UCF, Cincy, Memphis and SMU. We’re not going to become more prestigious as a conference where we surpass the PAC-12 or Big 12, and we’re not getting passed up by other G5 conferences. Why help a BYU or Boise State? BYU and Boise actually get a shot at making a playoffs and the original AAC gets more competition.
But we could be offered more money for each school, by ESPN, if we bring in a BYU and another.
It would be tough for the ADs and BoRs to turn that down…especially since many of our school’s athletic departments are being subsidized by Academics.
BYU and Boise State would be strong adds and raise the profile of the conference. Does the upside of joining a conference with a potential CFP AQ outweigh the potential loss of TV revenue for BYU? Would ESPN be willing to raise the AAC payout for an expanded conference?
Navy would not block a move to the East division. They simply have a strong preference for the West division. A move to the East with Tulane would be amenable to them as they really want to play SMU and Tulane every year.