CFP PAYOUTS (2014-18 total) per conference member:
$33,250,989 - Big 12
$28,019,334 - Notre Dame
$27,960,909 - PAC 12
$26,844,010 - SEC
$24,070,088 - ACC
$23,926,072 - Big Ten
$9,232,323 - AAC
$8,045,927 - MWC
$7,332,837 - Sun Belt
$7,013,956 - MAC
$5,423,623 - CUSA
Financially, the Big 12 has no reason to expand! Each team added will reduce the per team payout by $3 million. So in order for expansion to be even revenue neutral, any program added would have to bring not just enough media value to at least earn the conference the pro rata increase, but $3M more! Same argument also applies to expansion by Pac or ACC.
Help me out with the math here. B12 made $33,250,989 per school over a 5 year period. This comes out to $6.650MM per year. If it were split 11 ways instead of 10, each school would’ve received $6.046MM per year. That’s a difference of $604k per year, right?
The time frame is immaterial. My point was that it’s an uphill battle to bring sufficient financial value to be considered for expansion. No conference will expand unless there is immediate and ongoing financial gain for the current members.
Suppose UH and UX were added by the Big 12, and the networks agreed to increase the conference payout proportionally. But now the playoff money has to be split 2 extra ways… each of the 10 current programs would lose $1.2M a year in playoff money. It’s a deliberately rigged game designed to keep outsiders out!
Except when expansion was on the table a few years ago, the new teams would not be splitting the existing pie, the networks would be on the hook for paying for the new teams in addition to the money the paid the existing teams. That’s why ESPN/Fox told the B12 they’d pay them the $3million (I think, can’t remember exactly) they would get for expansion. Killed expansion at the time but UT and OU did not extend their GORs.
Who knows how that plays out in the future. Also, I brought up expansion, so, drink!