I’ve been asked to edit this post because some community members were offended. Though the offense wasn’t specified, I suspect it’s that I beat around the bush too much. I apologize to all who were offended and my edited post is below.
“Iowa State deserved to be ranked. The No. 24
Cyclones might have the worst record of any team in the Top 25 — 4-3, a win behind No. 18 Mississippi State and No. 20 Texas A&M — but they remain a smart addition. Iowa State has quality losses: by 10 points to both No. 16 Iowa and No. 7 Oklahoma joining a three-point loss to TCU. Each of the Cyclones’ four wins have come against teams with a winning record, the most impressive a 30-14 handling of No. 13 West Virginia. It’s worth noting, their current three-game win streak coincides with the decision to start freshman Brock Purdy at quarterback. Wisely, the committee looked past the Cyclones’ record to see what is one of the best teams in the country.”
Makes sense to me. Played tough schedule. BUT the committee is never gonna put ISU in top 4!!! If they win out and win Big 12 they aren’t going in CFP with 3 losses!!! UH has better chance to get there by winning out…and we aren’t ranked…that doesn’t make sense…BUT it’s why we shouldn’t get to upset about the first ranking. If we win out we will end around top 10 imo
1. Unranked Houston: Where in the world are the Cougars? Houston is 7-1 and its only loss came in Week 3 against Texas Tech. Houston’s schedule isn’t the greatest; its only victory over a winning team came in Saturday’s shellacking of previously undefeated South Florida. But the Cougars are averaging nearly 50 points per game and D’Eriq King is emerging as a legitimate Heisman sleeper. Is it better to beat bad teams than lose to good ones? We’d argue the former. The committee certainly leans more toward the latter.
While many predicted the possibility of the playoff committee ranking the Knights lower in their poll, the biggest shock was that the Houston Cougars (ranked No. 17 in the other two major polls) were nowhere to be found in the debut playoff poll.
Now why would the committee not rank a team that only has one loss and is playing as well as the Houston Cougars are right now? The simple and obvious answer to anyone not wearing ESPN goggles is that the committee is worried about UH climbing in the polls and facing a possibly undefeated UCF on December 1st. Another AAC Championship featuring two ranked teams makes it harder to sell the narrative that this isn’t a “power conference.” And if the Knights were to beat a decently ranked Houston team, it would make it even harder to keep UCF out of the playoff for a second consecutive year. That’s not “tinfoil hat” talk. It’s just reality.
I don’t think there’s any chance we could rise that much in the next 5 weeks since our schedule doesn’t get much better other than possibly a showdown with UCF. Where I will disagree with you is it makes no sense in my mind to reward a team for so-called “quality losses”, especially when 2 of those losses were by double digits and the other one was to a terrible TCU team that lost to Kansas! How on earth are any of those considered “quality”? If ISU gets credit for losing to TCU, we should get credit for losing to Tech. Neither we nor ISU, nor anyone else should ever get credit for losing a game. That is terrible logic.
This quote is the kicker for me. They can look past schedule results to somehow find that a 4-3 team with a loss to TCU is “one of the best teams in the country” but can’t see from our 7-1 record, video game offensive numbers and 2 players on the Heisman watch list that we are one of the 25 best teams in the country? Get outta here!
My saying we could get to 10 ish is based on beating undefeated UCF…and not losing along the way obviously.
Re ISU I said I understand SOS and think it’s important, but the committee weighs it too heavily imo.
I said in another thread that a 3 loss team shouldn’t be ranked at this point…8-3 or 9-3 later on then yes . But 5-3 now??? No
I hope this doesn’t happen but there is also an unlikely path to ny6 if we lose another non-championship game. 2-loss Boise made ny6 a few years ago. Just need a few teams to join us in losing. Not the preferred path but a path nonetheless.
I think it’s doubtful the MWC champion has 2 losses this year, but it is possible. Right now, there are really only 4 contenders for the MWC championship: Boise, Utah State, Fresno St. and San Diego State. USU and Boise are in the same division and Fresno and SDSU are in the same division. USU and Fresno both have 1 loss on the year and are both undefeated in conference, SDSU has 2 losses, including a conference loss to Nevada and Boise has 2 losses, including a conference loss to SDSU. I’m not sure how tiebreakers work in the MWC, but I’m assuming head to head is up there if records are the same.
Here is the remaining schedule for all 4 contenders:
@ Colorado St @ Boise
vs BYU vs Fresno
@ New Mexico vs USU
@ UNLV @ Boise vs SDSU
@ New Mexico
vs UNLV @Fresno
As you can see, there are still lots of opportunities for the MWC to cannibalize itself. I don’t think we have to worry much about SDSU or Boise jumping us in the rankings even if we lose another game (unless that loss is to SMU or Tulane) since both of those teams already have 2 losses (one caveat could be if Boise wins out, with wins over USU and Fresno). Fresno and Utah St. both worry me though. Of the 4 MWC contenders, they have the easiest remaining schedules and assuming they both win their respective divisions, the winner of their conference championship will almost certainly (a) be ranked higher than us going into that championship game, and (b) have beaten a ranked team for the championship. If that happens, that means our only shot of getting the NY6 is to beat a highly ranked UCF in the AAC championship game, preferably by a comfortable margin.
Best case scenario for us is for Boise and/or SDSU to make the MWC championship game. To do so, Boise is likely going to have to beat both USU and Fresno; a tall task but they play both of them at home. If both Fresno and USU make the championship game with only 1 loss each, we’re in trouble unless we are ranked very close to the MWC winner before the conference championship game. Logically, I still think we should take the NY6 slot if we win out and beat UCF, no matter what happens in the MWC, but if there is any error by us on the way, we’ll certainly need some help to get the NY6.
I don’t see anyone other than the AAC or MWC champ getting that slot this year. I guess there’s no way to know where Buffalo is in the CFP rankings compared to the AAC or MWC contenders, but for all the ridicule about AAC SOS, the MAC is on another (much lower) level altogether. If Temple wins the AAC, they will have beaten a highly ranked UCF and almost certainly a ranked UH. That wouldn’t get them in over a 1or even 2 loss MWC champ, but it would put them above a 1-loss MAC team even with that head to head loss. In my opinion, of course.