For the last few years now I’ve been running a spreadsheet a computer poll for another board I post on. Since I’m beginning to crunch numbers for this season now, thought I’d run it here and see what you guys think, especially because I got the result I always wanted this time
It’s pretty evolved at this point - I do my own rankings, I do not use a shred of preseason or previous season data, my own strength of schedule rankings, and I can do some rudimentary prediction. It weighs values in the following order -
- Wins
- Point Differential
- Turnover Margin
- Yards Gained/Allowed Margin
(This gives a raw score) - Strength of schedule - 2/3 own team, 1/3 opponents’ opponents. Up to 33% bonus to raw score for #1 SOS, declining bonuses down to #95, penalties begin after #97
Poll below -
Team Record Score Strength of Schedule Conferences by SOS Conferences by Average Score 1. Houston 4-0 2.4869 1. Bowling Green 1. Sun Belt 1. ACC 2. Louisville 4-0 2.3202 2. Rice 2. American 2. Big 10 3. Clemson 4-0 2.3086 3. UNC Charlotte 3. Conference USA 3. American 4. Ohio State 3-0 2.0837 4. Oklahoma 4. MAC 4. SEC 5. Michigan 4-0 2.0817 5. Florida Atlantic 5. SEC 5. Pac 12 6. Alabama 4-0 1.7593 6. USC 6. Pac 12 6. Big 12 7. Texas A&M 4-0 1.6498 7. Georgia State 7. Big 12 7. MAC 8. Baylor 4-0 1.6271 8. Troy 8. ACC 8. Mountain West 9. Memphis 3-0 1.5448 9. Houston 9. Mountain West 9. Conference USA 10. Miami (FL) 3-0 1.5257 10. Idaho 10. Big 10 10. Sun Belt 11. Wisconsin 4-0 1.4921 11. Texas State 12. Nebraska 4-0 1.4818 12. Tulsa 13. Army 3-1 1.4401 13. Western Kentucky Median Team - Auburn 14. Wake Forest 4-0 1.3921 14. UTEP Average Team - Temple 15. Troy 3-1 1.3814 15. Eastern Michigan 16. Washington 4-0 1.3628 16. Hawaii 17. Toledo 3-0 1.3392 17. Louisville 18. Kansas State 2-1 1.3376 18. UCF 19. Western Michigan 4-0 1.2980 19. New Mexico State 20. Boise State 3-0 1.2655 20. Clemson 21. Southern Miss 3-1 1.2312 21. Ole Miss 22. Colorado 3-1 1.1902 22. Florida State 23. Air Force 3-0 1.1827 23. Colorado 24. Maryland 3-0 1.1823 24. Penn State 25. Stanford 3-0 1.1605 25. Fresno State 118. San Jose State 1-3 -0.3765 123. Nevada 119. Kent State 1-3 -0.3851 124. Washington 120. Bowling Green 1-3 -0.3878 125. New Mexico 121. Iowa State 1-3 -0.4193 126. Toledo 122. Massachusetts 1-3 -0.4243 127. Arizona State 123. Rice 0-4 -0.4913 124. Virginia 1-3 -0.5005 125. Miami (OH) 0-4 -0.5105 126. FIU 0-4 -0.6063 127. Northern Illinois 0-4 -0.6326